{"id":23972,"date":"2021-02-06T07:10:17","date_gmt":"2021-02-06T07:10:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=23972"},"modified":"2021-02-06T07:10:17","modified_gmt":"2021-02-06T07:10:17","slug":"usa-sales-up-daily-covid-19-cases-down-but-jobs-still-scarce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/02\/06\/usa-sales-up-daily-covid-19-cases-down-but-jobs-still-scarce\/","title":{"rendered":"USA: Sales up, daily COVID-19 cases down but jobs still scarce"},"content":{"rendered":"

Daily new COVID-19 cases in the US are clearly falling as the vaccine roll-out takes effect.<\/p>\n

\"USA:<\/p>\n

But daily deaths are still rising and may take another few weeks to level off.<\/p>\n

\"USA:<\/p>\n

January payroll figures show the economic recovery has stalled, with total jobs contracting by 6.08% compared to January 2020.<\/p>\n

\"Payroll<\/p>\n

Hours worked are down 4.4% compared to last year.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

Average hourly earnings jumped 5.44% for production and non-supervisory workers but these are distorted by strong job losses in the lowest pay grades.<\/p>\n

\"Hourly<\/p>\n

Retail sales (excluding food) have also been artificially boosted by government stimulus which added roughly 20% to disposable income.<\/p>\n

\"Retail<\/p>\n

Light vehicle sales are similarly boosted.<\/p>\n

\"Light<\/p>\n

While housing starts are climbing in response to record low mortgage rates.<\/p>\n

\"Housing<\/p>\n

Total unemployment claims (state and federal) declined to a still high 17.8 million for the week ended January 16th.<\/p>\n

\"DOL:<\/p>\n

The proposed Biden stimulus<\/a> will support households and businesses but employment is likely to remain weak until the COVID-19 outbreak is clearly under control.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

Economic activity is expected to remain weak in the first half of 2021. A key determinant will be the length of time it takes to bring the COVID-19 outbreak under control. Subsequent recovery is likely to need strong fiscal support, with federal debt expected to grow faster than GDP in 2021. This will require continued Treasury purchases by the Fed and commercial banks, with interest rates remaining low throughout 2021.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Daily new COVID-19 cases in the US are clearly falling as the vaccine roll-out takes effect. But daily deaths are still rising and may take another few weeks to level off. January payroll figures show the economic recovery has stalled, with total jobs contracting by 6.08% compared to January 2020. Hours worked are down 4.4% … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “USA: Sales up, daily COVID-19 cases down but jobs still scarce”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,46,3761,34],"tags":[314,4710,4707,4708,1746,2109,4085,2943,4709,4492],"class_list":["post-23972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-average-hourly-earnings","tag-biden-stimulus","tag-covid-19-outbreak","tag-housing-permits","tag-housing-starts","tag-light-vehicle-sales","tag-payroll-growth","tag-retail-sales","tag-stalled-recovery","tag-total-unemployment-claims"],"yoast_head":"\nUSA: Sales up, daily COVID-19 cases down but jobs still scarce - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"USA: Sales up, daily COVID-19 cases down but jobs still scarce - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Daily new COVID-19 cases in the US are clearly falling as the vaccine roll-out takes effect. 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Payrolls Jobs recovery has stalled, with payroll growth down 5.98% compared to December 2019,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":22464,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/05\/the-slowing-recovery-needs-stimulus-but-there-is-a-cost\/","url_meta":{"origin":23972,"position":3},"title":"The slowing recovery needs stimulus but there is a cost","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 5, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Last week I spoke of a W-shaped recession as COVID-19 cases soared to new highs. The jobs recovery is slowing, with total non-farm payroll at -6.4% (Sep20 compared to Sep19), still well below the 2009 low of -5.0%. Real GDP may have recovered to -2.9% for Q3 but hours worked\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Debt Levels"","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14246,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/09\/30\/why-would-the-fed-raise-interest-rates-when-the-economy-is-slowing\/","url_meta":{"origin":23972,"position":4},"title":"Why would the Fed raise interest rates when the economy is slowing?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 30, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields have rebounded off their all-time low, shown here on a monthly chart, but remain in a secular down-trend. Only recovery above 3.0 percent (a long way off) would signal that the long-term down-trend has reversed. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate (5-year Treasury Yield - 5-year TIPS yield)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":28749,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/11\/06\/strong-retail-sales-missing-workers-and-the-inflation-threat\/","url_meta":{"origin":23972,"position":5},"title":"Retail sales, missing workers and the inflation threat","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 6, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The October labor report shows hours worked were roughly unchanged from September and still 100K below the pre-pandemic high (5.25m). But GDP of 19.5 trillion is up slightly when compared to 19.2T in Q3 2019, indicating that productivity has improved. Monthly retail sales for September, on the other hand, were\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real GDP & Hours Worked","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-05-realgdp-hours.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-05-realgdp-hours.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-05-realgdp-hours.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-05-realgdp-hours.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23972","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23972"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23972\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23982,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23972\/revisions\/23982"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}