{"id":2367,"date":"2011-11-26T02:31:31","date_gmt":"2011-11-26T07:31:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=2367"},"modified":"2011-11-26T02:31:31","modified_gmt":"2011-11-26T07:31:31","slug":"ny-fed-issues-mea-culpa-that-nobody-saw-at-6pm-on-black-friday-zerohedge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/26\/ny-fed-issues-mea-culpa-that-nobody-saw-at-6pm-on-black-friday-zerohedge\/","title":{"rendered":"NY Fed Issues Mea Culpa That Nobody Saw at 6PM on Black Friday | ZeroHedge"},"content":{"rendered":"

The 3 big reasons the Fed had gotten it wrong:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Misunderstanding of the housing boom. Staff analysis of the increase in house prices did not find convincing evidence of overvaluation (see, for example, McCarthy and Peach [2004] and Himmelberg, Mayer, and Sinai [2005]). Thus, we downplayed the risk of a substantial fall in house prices. A robust approach would have put the bar much lower than convincing evidence.<\/li>\n
  2. A lack of analysis of the rapid growth of new forms of mortgage finance. Here the reliance on the assumption of efficient markets appears to have dulled our awareness of many of the risks building in financial markets in 2005-07. However, a March 2008 New York Fed staff report by Ashcraft and Schuermann provided a detailed analysis of how incentives were misaligned throughout the securitization process of subprime mortgages–meaning that the market was not functioning efficiently.<\/li>\n
  3. Insufficient weight given to the powerful adverse feedback loops between the financial system and the real economy. Despite a good understanding of the risk of a financial crisis from mid-2007 onward, we were unable to fully connect the dots to real activity until 2008. Eventually, by building on the insights of Adrian and Shin (2008), we gained a better grasp of the power of these feedback loops.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    [The author of the NY Fed report] then added that perhaps the biggest reason for the failure was “complacency,” with which I heartily concur, but to which I would also add hubris and stupidity.<\/p>\n

    via NY Fed Issues Mea Culpa That Nobody Saw at 6PM on Black Friday | ZeroHedge<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The 3 big reasons the Fed had gotten it wrong: Misunderstanding of the housing boom. Staff analysis of the increase in house prices did not find convincing evidence of overvaluation (see, for example, McCarthy and Peach [2004] and Himmelberg, Mayer, and Sinai [2005]). Thus, we downplayed the risk of a substantial fall in house prices. … <\/p>\n

    Continue reading “NY Fed Issues Mea Culpa That Nobody Saw at 6PM on Black Friday | ZeroHedge”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,34],"tags":[774,1352,1366,1735,2373,2523,2914],"class_list":["post-2367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-complacency","tag-fed","tag-feedback-loops","tag-housing-boom","tag-mortgage-finance","tag-ny-fed","tag-report"],"yoast_head":"\nNY Fed Issues Mea Culpa That Nobody Saw at 6PM on Black Friday | ZeroHedge - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NY Fed Issues Mea Culpa That Nobody Saw at 6PM on Black Friday | ZeroHedge - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The 3 big reasons the Fed had gotten it wrong: Misunderstanding of the housing boom. Staff analysis of the increase in house prices did not find convincing evidence of overvaluation (see, for example, McCarthy and Peach [2004] and Himmelberg, Mayer, and Sinai [2005]). 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David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research argues that velocity of money is declining and the US economy has a large output gap\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":27019,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/07\/24\/pedal-to-the-metal\/","url_meta":{"origin":2367,"position":1},"title":"Pedal to the metal","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 24, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dow sets a new record, breaking 35000 for the first time. Yet the Fed continues to boost financial markets, exceeding its target of $120 billion in Treasury and MBS purchases by more than $50 billion in June. And by another $41 billion in the first three weeks of July\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6695,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/12\/feds-2007-transcripts-show-shift-to-alarm-wsj-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":2367,"position":2},"title":"Fed's 2007 Transcripts Show Shift to Alarm | WSJ.com","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 12, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"2007 Fed transcripts show that tremors in the US financial system were initially treated with complacency before shifting to alarm. Janet Yellen, then president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, was one of the few who showed an understanding of the magnitude of the growing crisis. 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They discuss the difficulty in identifying asset\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13713,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/11\/06\/is-the-market-in-a-bubble\/","url_meta":{"origin":2367,"position":4},"title":"Is the market in a bubble?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 6, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"As global growth recovers we expect equity markets to be buoyed by improvements in both earnings and dividends, with strong momentum over the quarter. There is much discussion in the media as to whether various markets are in a \"bubble\". 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The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a close of 1.54% on Thursday. 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