{"id":23448,"date":"2020-12-31T05:03:34","date_gmt":"2020-12-31T05:03:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=23448"},"modified":"2020-12-31T05:03:34","modified_gmt":"2020-12-31T05:03:34","slug":"markets-that-are-likely-to-outperform-in-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/12\/31\/markets-that-are-likely-to-outperform-in-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets that are likely to outperform in 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"

There is no reliable benchmark for assessing performance of different markets (stocks, bonds, precious metals, commodities, etc.) since central banks have flooded financial markets with more than $8 trillion in freshly printed currency since the start of 2020. The chart below from Ed Yardeni shows total assets of the five major central banks (Fed, ECB, BOC, BOE and BOJ) expanded to $27.9T at the end of November 2020, from below $20T at the start of the year.<\/p>\n

\"Central<\/p>\n

With no convenient benchmark, the best way to measure performance is using relative strength between two prices\/indices.<\/p>\n

Measured in Gold (rather than Dollars) the S&P 500 iShares ETF (IVV) has underperformed since mid-2019. Respect of the red descending trendline would confirm further weakness ahead (or outperformance for Gold).<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

But if we take a broad basket of commodities, stocks are still outperforming. Reversal of the current up-trend would signal that he global economy is recovering, with rising demand for commodities as manufacturing output increases. Breach of the latest, sharply rising trendline would warn of a correction to the long-term rising trendline and, most likely, even further.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Commodities<\/h2>\n

There are pockets of rising prices in commodities but the broader indices remain weak.<\/p>\n

Copper shows signs of a recovery. Breakout above -0.5 would signal outperformance relative to Gold.<\/p>\n

\"Copper\/Gold\"<\/p>\n

Brent crude shows a similar rally. Breakout above the declining red trendline would suggest outperformance ahead.<\/p>\n

\"Brent<\/p>\n

But the broad basket of commodities measured by the DJ-UBS Commodity Index is still in a down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"DJ-UBS<\/p>\n

Precious Metals<\/h2>\n

Silver broke out of its downward trend channel relative to Gold. Completion of the recent pullback (at zero) confirms the breakout and signals future outperformance.<\/p>\n

\"Silver\/Gold\"<\/p>\n

Stock Markets<\/h2>\n

Comparing major stock indices, the S&P 500 has outperformed the DJ Stoxx Euro 600 since 2010. Lately the up-trend has accelerated and breach of the latest rising trendline would warn of reversion to at least the long-term trendline. More likely even further.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 shows a similar accelerating up-trend relative to the ASX 200. Breach of the latest trendline would similarly signal reversion to the LT trendline and most likely further.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Reversion is already under way with India’s Nifty 50 (NSX), now outperforming the S&P 500.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

S&P 500 performance relative to the Shanghai Composite plateaued at around +0.4. Breakout would signal further gains but respect of resistance is as likely.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Growth\/Value<\/h2>\n

Looking within the Russell 1000 large caps index, Growth stocks (IWF) have clearly outperformed Value (IWD) since 2006. Breach of the latest, incredibly steep trendline, however, warns of reversion to the mean. We are likely to see Value outperform Growth in 2021.<\/p>\n

\"Russell<\/p>\n

Bonds<\/h2>\n

The S&P 500 has made strong gains against Treasury bonds since March (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF [TLT]) but is expected to run into resistance between 1.3 and 1.4. Rising inflation fears, however, may lower bond prices, spurring further outperformance by stocks.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Currencies<\/h2>\n

The US Dollar is weakening against a basket of major currencies. Euro breakout above resistance at $1.25 would signal a long-term up-trend.<\/p>\n

\"Euro\/Dollar\"<\/p>\n

China’s Yuan has already broken resistance at 14.6 US cents, signaling a long-term up-trend.<\/p>\n

\"Yuan\/Dollar\"<\/p>\n

India’s Rupee remains sluggish.<\/p>\n

\"Indian<\/p>\n

But the Australian Dollar is surging. The recent correction that respected support at 70 US cents suggests an advance to at least 80 cents.<\/p>\n

\"Australian<\/p>\n

Gold, surprisingly, retraced over the last few months despite the weakening US Dollar. But respect of support at $1800\/ounce would signal another primary advance.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

Silver is expected to outperform Gold.
\nGold is expected to outperform stocks.
\nValue stocks are expected to outperform Growth.
\nIndia’s Nifty 50 is expected to outperform other major indices. This is likely to be followed by the Stoxx Euro 600 and ASX 200 but only if they break their latest, sharply rising trendlines. That leaves the S&P 500 and Shanghai Composite filling the minor placings.
\nCopper and Crude show signs of a recovery but the broad basket of currencies is expected to underperform stocks and precious metals.
\nThe Greenback is expected to weaken against most major currencies, while rising inflation<\/a> is likely to leave bond investors holding the wooden spoon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There is no reliable benchmark for assessing performance of different markets (stocks, bonds, precious metals, commodities, etc.) since central banks have flooded financial markets with more than $8 trillion in freshly printed currency since the start of 2020. The chart below from Ed Yardeni shows total assets of the five major central banks (Fed, ECB, … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Markets that are likely to outperform in 2021”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,41,43,44,9,12,33,34],"tags":[4661,251,292,4660,3998,4039,1292,1578,4292,4663,4662,3010,3099,3124,3556,3731],"class_list":["post-23448","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-china-hk","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-gold-precious-metals","category-india-singapore-countries-regions","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-20-year-treasury-bond-etf","tag-asx-200","tag-australian-dollar","tag-brent-crude-oil","tag-dj-stoxx-euro-600","tag-dj-ubs-commodities-index","tag-euro","tag-gold-2","tag-ishares-etf","tag-nifty-50","tag-rupee","tag-sp-500","tag-shanghai-composite","tag-silver-2","tag-us-dollar","tag-yuan"],"yoast_head":"\nMarkets that are likely to outperform in 2021 - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Markets that are likely to outperform in 2021 - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There is no reliable benchmark for assessing performance of different markets (stocks, bonds, precious metals, commodities, etc.) since central banks have flooded financial markets with more than $8 trillion in freshly printed currency since the start of 2020. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-66c","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":47038,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/01\/08\/a-2024-watershed\/","url_meta":{"origin":23448,"position":0},"title":"A 2024 watershed","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 8, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"This year is likely to be dominated by the November 2024 US presidential elections which represent a global watershed with far-reaching implications. The Fed and Treasury are expected to maintain financial market liquidity to support the US economy and ensure a smooth run-up to the election. Stocks are likely to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-08-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-08-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-08-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59161,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/12\/bitcoin-tests-90000-while-gold-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":23448,"position":1},"title":"Bitcoin tests $90,000 while gold falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 12, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Bitcoin soared to a new high of $88.8K on expectations of a favorable regulatory environment after Donald Trump takes office. Gold retreated to test support at $2,600 per ounce as the Dollar strengthened. The Dollar Index respected support at 104, signaling an advance to 106\u2014bearish for precious metals, commodities, and,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin (BTC)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-11-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-11-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-11-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":52390,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/07\/financial-markets-receive-liquidity-boost\/","url_meta":{"origin":23448,"position":2},"title":"Financial markets signal liquidity boost","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 7, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Rising stock prices and falling Treasury yields suggest that the recent contraction in liquidity is ending. This is supported by Bitcoin recovery to $64K and stronger precious metals prices. The S&P 500 broke resistance at 5100, the latest rally indicating that pressure in financial markets is easing. Another test of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-06-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-06-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-06-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":42731,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/24\/gold-crude-and-the-dollar\/","url_meta":{"origin":23448,"position":3},"title":"Gold, Crude and the Dollar","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 24, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 continues to retrace to test the band of support between 4200 and 4300. Respect would signal a fresh advance but the odds of breach appear higher than they would normally in a breakout. The equal-weighted S&P 500 respected resistance at 6000 and is now retreating. Expect strong\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-23-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-23-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-23-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":21284,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/19\/sp-500-makes-new-high-or-dollar-at-new-low\/","url_meta":{"origin":23448,"position":4},"title":"S&P 500 makes new high or Dollar at new low?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 19, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 closed at a new record high of 3389.78 yesterday. Or did it? Another way of looking at it is the Dollar has fallen to new lows. That is not yet evident on the Dollar Index, which compares the Dollar to other major currencies. DXY is testing long-term\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":54415,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/12\/commodities-and-precious-metals-threaten-bear-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":23448,"position":5},"title":"Commodities and precious metals threaten bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 12, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Long-term Treasury yields are easing, while crude oil and commodities threaten strong down-trends. China may be exporting its economic woes to its trading partners, shipping surplus capacity that threatens local industries. Stocks edged higher, while precious metals continue to warn of selling pressure. Treasury Market Ten-Year Treasury yields retreated from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-11-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-11-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-11-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23448","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23448"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23448\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23454,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23448\/revisions\/23454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23448"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23448"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23448"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}