{"id":23059,"date":"2020-12-05T06:48:47","date_gmt":"2020-12-05T06:48:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=23059"},"modified":"2020-12-05T06:48:47","modified_gmt":"2020-12-05T06:48:47","slug":"sp-500-leaders-no-longer-leading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/12\/05\/sp-500-leaders-no-longer-leading\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500: Leaders no longer leading"},"content":{"rendered":"

Daily new cases of COVID-19 continue to spike upwards, warning of further shutdowns as medical facilities are overrun.<\/p>\n

\"USA:<\/p>\n

Payrolls<\/h2>\n

The latest labor report disappointed, especially as the November survey came before the latest round of layoffs after states imposed tighter restrictions.<\/p>\n

Payroll growth flattened, leaving total payroll down 5.99% compared to November last year.<\/p>\n

\"Payrolls<\/p>\n

Hours worked are slightly more encouraging, down 4.68% on an annual basis, compared to -2.9% change in real GDP.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

Vaccines<\/h2>\n

Encouraging news on the vaccine front but “when you hear the cavalry is coming to your rescue, you don\u2019t stop shooting. You redouble your efforts.” (Dr Anthony Fauci)<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Now<\/a><\/p>\n

Stocks<\/h2>\n

Progress in manufacturing vaccines that will soon be widely available has buoyed stocks despite the dismal economic outlook. The S&P 500 made new highs, assisted by hopes of further stimulus and ultra-low interest rates. The large megaphone pattern is a poor indicator of future direction but does flag unusual volatility.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Growth in the big five technology stocks has slowed in recent months, with only Alphabet (GOOGL) breaking above its September high. Too early to tell, but failure of market leaders to make new highs is typical of the late stages of a bull market.<\/p>\n

\"AAPL,<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

Vaccines should succeed in flattening the third wave and suppressing future outbreaks but are unlikely to succeed in restoring the economy to normalcy.<\/p>\n

Federal debt is at a record 123% of GDP and growing. Further stimulus is required to support the still-fragile recovery.<\/p>\n

The Fed will continue to expand its balance sheet to support Treasury issuance.<\/p>\n

Ultra-low interest rates are likely to stay for a number of years.<\/p>\n

If massive federal debt, QE and ultra-low interest rates does not cause a spike in inflation, that will encourage authorities to push the envelope even further (we fear this would have disastrous consequences).<\/p>\n

Unemployment is expected to remain high and GDP growth likely to remain low.<\/p>\n

Zombie corporations and commercial real estate with unsustainable debt levels will continue to be a drag on economic growth.<\/p>\n

Growth stocks are expected to remain overpriced relative to current and future earnings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Daily new cases of COVID-19 continue to spike upwards, warning of further shutdowns as medical facilities are overrun. Payrolls The latest labor report disappointed, especially as the November survey came before the latest round of layoffs after states imposed tighter restrictions. Payroll growth flattened, leaving total payroll down 5.99% compared to November last year. Hours … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500: Leaders no longer leading”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,45,46,3761,57,34],"tags":[107,189,4215,4298,3971,3851,1723,3849,4085,2870,3010,4621,4622],"class_list":["post-23059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-debt-levels","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-aapl","tag-amzn","tag-covid-19","tag-dr-anthony-fauci","tag-fb","tag-googl","tag-hours-worked","tag-msft","tag-payroll-growth","tag-real-gdp","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-vaccine"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500: Leaders no longer leading - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500: Leaders no longer leading - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Daily new cases of COVID-19 continue to spike upwards, warning of further shutdowns as medical facilities are overrun. 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Daily new cases of COVID-19 continue to climb, warning of further shutdowns as medical facilities are overrun. Payrolls Jobs recovery has stalled, with payroll growth down 5.98% compared to December 2019,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":23972,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/02\/06\/usa-sales-up-daily-covid-19-cases-down-but-jobs-still-scarce\/","url_meta":{"origin":23059,"position":1},"title":"USA: Sales up, daily COVID-19 cases down but jobs still scarce","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 6, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Daily new COVID-19 cases in the US are clearly falling as the vaccine roll-out takes effect. But daily deaths are still rising and may take another few weeks to level off. January payroll figures show the economic recovery has stalled, with total jobs contracting by 6.08% compared to January 2020.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19755,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/07\/payroll-grows-but-hours-worked-slow\/","url_meta":{"origin":23059,"position":2},"title":"US Payrolls grow but hours slow","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 7, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Payroll growth (YoY) recovered to 1.5% in January , from a low of 1.2% in June 2019. But growth in hours worked continues to decline, warning that real GDP growth is likely to follow. Easy monetary policy, far from boosting the economy, is likely to lead to stagnation. Tight labor\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26651,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/07\/05\/june-payroll-personal-income-and-investment\/","url_meta":{"origin":23059,"position":3},"title":"June payroll, personal income and investment","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 5, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"June payrolls show an impressive 850,000 gain over the past month but there is still a sizable shortfall of 6.7 million jobs when compared to the pre-pandemic peak of February 2020. Many companies are struggling to fill vacancies as enhanced unemployment benefits, ongoing child care responsibilities and pandemic safety concerns\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19554,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/07\/sp-500-recovers-but-employment-gains-are-small\/","url_meta":{"origin":23059,"position":4},"title":"S&P 500 recovers but employment gains sluggish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 7, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Short retracement on the S&P 500 that respected support at 3000 strengthens the bull signal. Further gains are expected in the short- to medium-term. Corporate profits before tax continue to decline after adjusting for inflation, exposing the vulnerability of high earnings multiples. Hours worked (non-farm payroll x average weekly hours)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":21754,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/10\/03\/us-job-recovery-slows\/","url_meta":{"origin":23059,"position":5},"title":"US: Job recovery slows","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 3, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Estimated hours worked are down 5.56% in September, compared to September 2019. GDP growth is likely to track a similar path. Jim Stock's Weekly Economic Index comes in slightly higher, at 4.62%, but doesn't seem to take account of government transfers outside the State Unemployment schemes. More than half of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23059","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23059"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23059\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23060,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23059\/revisions\/23060"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23059"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23059"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23059"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}