{"id":21,"date":"2011-08-07T08:37:37","date_gmt":"2011-08-07T08:37:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.wordpress.com\/?p=21"},"modified":"2024-04-18T03:06:50","modified_gmt":"2024-04-18T03:06:50","slug":"tipping-point","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/07\/tipping-point\/","title":{"rendered":"Tipping point"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Posted August 3, 2011 8:00 p.m. ET (10:00 a.m. AET) on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/tradingdiary\/2011-08-04-markets.php\">Trading Diary<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Markets are approaching the tipping point at which they will confirm a primary down-trend. The probability of a bear market is around 75 percent, with 80 about as high as you can get at a turning point. As <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/tradingdiary\/2011-05-25_economy_gold_forex.php\">highlighted in May<\/a>, <strong>every significant spike in crude oil prices in the last 50 years has been followed by a recession<\/strong> \u2014 and the current spike is likely to prove no different. Ben Bernanke will modestly decline to take the credit, but the initial groundwork for higher oil prices was laid by QEII. Prices had started to rise well before the conflict in Libya.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/201108_commodity_oil.png?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"22\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/07\/tipping-point\/201108_commodity_oil\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/201108_commodity_oil.png?fit=665%2C405&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"665,405\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"201108_commodity_oil\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/201108_commodity_oil.png?fit=300%2C183&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/201108_commodity_oil.png?fit=525%2C320&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-22\" title=\"201108_commodity_oil\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/201108_commodity_oil.png?resize=525%2C320&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Crude Oil and US Recessions\" width=\"525\" height=\"320\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/201108_commodity_oil.png?w=665&amp;ssl=1 665w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/201108_commodity_oil.png?resize=300%2C183&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Investor flight to safety is clearly signaled by the sharp fall in 10-year treasury yields.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/tradingdiary\/images\/2011-08-04-tnx.png?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"23\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/07\/tipping-point\/2011-08-04-tnx\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/2011-08-04-tnx.png?fit=675%2C500&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"675,500\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2011-08-04-tnx\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/2011-08-04-tnx.png?fit=300%2C222&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/2011-08-04-tnx.png?fit=525%2C389&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-23\" title=\"2011-08-04-tnx\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/2011-08-04-tnx.png?resize=525%2C389&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"525\" height=\"389\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/2011-08-04-tnx.png?w=675&amp;ssl=1 675w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/2011-08-04-tnx.png?resize=300%2C222&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Other safe havens such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/tradingdiary\/2011-08-03-gold-forex.php#gold\">gold<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/tradingdiary\/2011-08-03-gold-forex.php#chf\">Swiss franc<\/a> display a corresponding spike over the last few days.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Posted August 3, 2011 8:00 p.m. ET (10:00 a.m. AET) on Trading Diary. Markets are approaching the tipping point at which they will confirm a primary down-trend. The probability of a bear market is around 75 percent, with 80 about as high as you can get at a turning point. As highlighted in May, every &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/07\/tipping-point\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Tipping point&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-gold-commodities"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tipping point - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Markets are approaching the tipping point at which they will confirm a primary down-trend\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/07\/tipping-point\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tipping point - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Markets are approaching the tipping point at which they will confirm a primary down-trend\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/07\/tipping-point\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2011-08-07T08:37:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-04-18T03:06:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/201108_commodity_oil.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/07\/tipping-point\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/07\/tipping-point\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"Tipping point\",\"datePublished\":\"2011-08-07T08:37:37+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-04-18T03:06:50+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/07\/tipping-point\/\"},\"wordCount\":145,\"commentCount\":5,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/07\/tipping-point\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/201108_commodity_oil.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; 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The 1973 Yom Kippur War between Israel and the Arab states led to global stagflation (recession and inflation) in 1974-1975.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1821,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/07\/italy-nears-tipping-point-as-bond-yields-spike-wsj-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":21,"position":1},"title":"Italy Nears Tipping Point as Bond Yields Spike &#8211; WSJ.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 7, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Less than two weeks after European leaders unveiled an agreement that was designed to bolster confidence in the region, the yield on Italy's 10-year debt drew close to the 7% mark, a line in the sand of both practical and psychological importance to the market. Psychologically, 7% has become a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":48842,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/21\/will-the-fed-cut-rates-in-response-to-rising-crude-prices\/","url_meta":{"origin":21,"position":2},"title":"Will the Fed cut rates in response to rising crude prices?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 21, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The two most important prices in the global economy are crude oil and the 10-year Treasury yield. A sharp spike in either normally causes a recession. Households curb spending as energy costs or borrowing costs take a large bite out of disposable income, leading to falling demand and a recession.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"History of Real Crude Prices: WTI Light Crude\/CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-21-realcrude-history.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-21-realcrude-history.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-21-realcrude-history.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-21-realcrude-history.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":30801,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/05\/gold-jobs-and-geopolitics\/","url_meta":{"origin":21,"position":3},"title":"Gold, jobs and geopolitics","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 5, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The 10-year Treasury yield jumped above 1.9% on the back of the January BLS jobs report. Total non-farm payroll jumped by a surprising seasonally-adjusted 467,000. Call me skeptical but the adjusted data looks too good to be true, especially as we are in the middle of another pandemic wave. Unadjusted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dollar Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-04-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-04-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-04-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":30,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/07\/dow-at-the-tipping-point\/","url_meta":{"origin":21,"position":4},"title":"Dow at the tipping point","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 7, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Posted August 3, 2011 8:00 p.m. ET (10:00 a.m. AET) on Trading Diary. The long tail on today's candle for the Dow Jones Industrial Average indicates buying support, but 21-Day Money Flow below zero warns of longer term selling pressure. Only recovery above the rising trendline would call the bear\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/2011-08-03-dowi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/2011-08-03-dowi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/2011-08-03-dowi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":29692,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/12\/07\/urea-producers-run-out-of-gas\/","url_meta":{"origin":21,"position":5},"title":"Urea producers run out of gas","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 7, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"About 220 million tons of urea are produced every year, more than 90% used as a fertilizer, providing a rich source of nitrogen for crops. Urea is also used as a catalyst for removing harmful emissions from diesel exhaust fumes. LNG is the key feedstock to make urea and ammonia\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Urea Prices","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-07-urea2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-07-urea2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-07-urea2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-07-urea2.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51317,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21\/revisions\/51317"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}