{"id":20968,"date":"2020-07-11T07:17:35","date_gmt":"2020-07-11T07:17:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=20968"},"modified":"2020-07-11T07:17:35","modified_gmt":"2020-07-11T07:17:35","slug":"nasdaq-devil-take-the-hindmost","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/07\/11\/nasdaq-devil-take-the-hindmost\/","title":{"rendered":"Nasdaq: Devil take the hindmost"},"content":{"rendered":"

I am fond off quoting Jesse Livermore’s maxim “You don’t argue with the tape” but Livermore was a keen student of market conditions and based his decisions on far more than just price action in the market.<\/p>\n

We are witnessing a spectacular stock market rally, driven by retail investors and hedge funds piling into the market while institutional investors are sitting on the sidelines.<\/p>\n

The Nasdaq 100 broke through resistance at 10,000, new highs signaling a fresh primary advance. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow index may warn of selling pressure but it is hard to argue with the tape. Only a fall below 9500 would signal another decline and that seems unlikely at present.<\/p>\n

\"Nasdaq<\/p>\n

Even retail sales (ex food) have recovered sharply, from -15.3% in April to -1.4% in May (annual % gain).<\/p>\n

\"Retail<\/p>\n

Light vehicle sales are more sluggish but June sales of 13.05 million are still a sizable bounce.<\/p>\n

\"Light<\/p>\n

So why are many old investment hands acting with such caution?<\/p>\n

We know that the efforts to contain the COVID19 outbreak are struggling, with over 60,000 new cases per day, but the economy still seems in good shape.<\/p>\n

\"COVID19<\/p>\n

Source JHU CSSE<\/span><\/p>\n

Let’s look at where the money is coming from.<\/p>\n

\"Federal<\/p>\n

Treasury debt has expanded by more than $3 trillion in the last four months (March 9 – July 9) as the government does everything in its power to cushion the economy from an unprecedented shutdown. Rescuing airlines, bailing out Boeing, emergency business loans, job preservation schemes, and supporting Fed purchases of a wide variety of financial assets to keep the plumbing of financial markets open. Every way they can, government has been flooding the market with money and some of that has found its way to the stock market. Whether through boosting stock purchases, enabling companies to raise debt or boosting consumer spending to buoy up sales, the market is flying on borrowed money.<\/p>\n

Steep up-trends like this typically end in a blow-off. A trend is self-reinforcing if rising prices attract more investors who in turn bid up prices even further. A steady influx of new investors is required to sustain the trend, else it dies.<\/p>\n

Similar self-reinforcing cycles are evident in nature, where they expand violently outward at an exponential rate until they run out of fuel. The fuel driving the event may differ, from dry tinder in a forest fire, warm ocean temperatures in a hurricane, consumable vegetation in a locust plague, …..or exposed population in a virus outbreak. The cycle expands, feeding on itself, until the fuel is exhausted.<\/p>\n

A stock market blow-off is no different. The up-trend will continue for as long as rising prices are able to attract new investors. It will stop when the source of new money dries up. In this case, when Treasury tries to slow the unsustainable growth in federal debt. Then it becomes a case of devil-take-the-hindmost as a preponderance of sellers attempt to offload their stocks on a rapidly shrinking pool of buyers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I am fond off quoting Jesse Livermore’s maxim “You don’t argue with the tape” but Livermore was a keen student of market conditions and based his decisions on far more than just price action in the market. We are witnessing a spectacular stock market rally, driven by retail investors and hedge funds piling into the … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Nasdaq: Devil take the hindmost”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45,3761,57,34],"tags":[4404,4297,4228,2109,2401,2943],"class_list":["post-20968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-debt-levels","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-blow-off","tag-covid19","tag-federal-debt","tag-light-vehicle-sales","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-retail-sales"],"yoast_head":"\nNasdaq: Devil take the hindmost - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nasdaq: Devil take the hindmost - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I am fond off quoting Jesse Livermore’s maxim “You don’t argue with the tape” but Livermore was a keen student of market conditions and based his decisions on far more than just price action in the market. 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The decline in consumer confidence also shows in lower January 2019 light vehicle sales. Trade talks make little progress Trivium provide a useful\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":35743,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/16\/retail-sales-and-volatility-warn-of-extreme-risk\/","url_meta":{"origin":20968,"position":1},"title":"Retail sales and volatility warn of extreme risk","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 16, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Advance retail sales (ex motor & parts) grew to 553 billion in June. Consumers are spending well above trend (dotted line), warning that inflation is going to be difficult to tame. 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The latest Trend Index peak below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Follow-through below 800 would confirm the primary down-trend. A reversal signal for Tesla, one of the stars of the recent\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Tesla","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-18-tsla.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-18-tsla.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-18-tsla.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-18-tsla.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20819,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/06\/20\/sp-500-technology-rules\/","url_meta":{"origin":20968,"position":3},"title":"S&P 500: Technology rules","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 20, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The Nasdaq 100 continues to test resistance at 10,000 but bearish divergence on the Money Flow index warns of selling pressure and a likely reversal. Breach of support at 9000 would warn of another test of primary support at 7000. Technology stocks are driving the recovery, while the rest of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24642,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/20\/nasdaq-tech-stocks-pause-for-breath\/","url_meta":{"origin":20968,"position":4},"title":"Tech heavyweights pause for breath","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 20, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Good progress has been made combating the pandemic but daily COVID cases seem to be struggling to break through a floor between 50 and 60 thousand. The vaccine roll-out is ahead of schedule but people need to stop listening to idiots like Rand Paul -- who went to the Senate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19503,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/29\/asx-200-dont-argue-with-the-tape\/","url_meta":{"origin":20968,"position":5},"title":"ASX 200: Don’t argue with the tape","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 29, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\"A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong; opinions often are.\" ~ Jesse Livermore The ASX 200 broke resistance at 6800, signaling a fresh advance with a short-term target of 7200. Declining Trend Index peaks still warn of secondary selling pressure at present. Expect retracement to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20968","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20968"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20968\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20969,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20968\/revisions\/20969"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20968"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20968"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20968"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}