{"id":20464,"date":"2020-05-06T02:35:56","date_gmt":"2020-05-06T02:35:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=20464"},"modified":"2020-05-09T07:22:08","modified_gmt":"2020-05-09T07:22:08","slug":"jobs-and-gdp-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"Jobs and GDP growth"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The view is often promoted that low GDP growth over the past decade is caused by low interest rates and balance sheet expansion (QE) by central banks. That is putting the cart before the horse. Central banks have tried to stimulate their economies, with massive QE and low interest rates, because of low GDP growth. Not the other way around.<\/p>\n<p>The real cause of low GDP growth is low job growth, as the chart below illustrates.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"20463\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/realgdp-employment\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?fit=1168%2C500&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1168,500\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"realgdp-employment\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?fit=300%2C128&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?fit=525%2C225&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-20463\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?resize=525%2C225&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Real GDP and Nonfarm Payroll Growth\" width=\"525\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?w=1168&amp;ssl=1 1168w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?resize=300%2C128&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?resize=1024%2C438&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?resize=768%2C329&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 89vw, (max-width: 1000px) 54vw, (max-width: 1071px) 543px, 580px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\">[<a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png\">click here<\/a> for full screen image]<\/p>\n<p>Offshoring jobs means offshoring growth.<\/p>\n<p>The last time that the US had employment growth above 5.0% is 1984 which also the last time that we saw real GDP growth at 7.5%. Since then, job growth has progressively weakened \u2014 and GDP with it.<\/p>\n<p>In the last decade, employment growth peaked at 2.27% and GDP at 3.98% in Q1 of 2015.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-05-06-realgdp-jobgrowth.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Real GDP and Nonfarm Payroll Growth\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We now expect job growth to fall to -20% in April, four times the -5% trough in 2009, and a sharp GDP contraction.<\/p>\n<p>How long the recession\/depression will continue is <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/avoiding-a-w-shaped-recession\/\">uncertain<\/a>. But, in the long-term, it is unlikely that the US can achieve +5% real GDP growth unless employment growth recovers close to +3.0%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The view is often promoted that low GDP growth over the past decade is caused by low interest rates and balance sheet expansion (QE) by central banks. That is putting the cart before the horse. Central banks have tried to stimulate their economies, with massive QE and low interest rates, because of low GDP growth. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Jobs and GDP growth&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,3761,34],"tags":[1227,2870],"class_list":["post-20464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-employment","tag-real-gdp"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Jobs and GDP growth - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Jobs and GDP growth - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The view is often promoted that low GDP growth over the past decade is caused by low interest rates and balance sheet expansion (QE) by central banks. That is putting the cart before the horse. Central banks have tried to stimulate their economies, with massive QE and low interest rates, because of low GDP growth. &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Jobs and GDP growth&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-05-06T02:35:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-05-09T07:22:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Jobs and GDP growth\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-05-06T02:35:56+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-05-09T07:22:08+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/\"},\"wordCount\":191,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Employment\",\"Real GDP\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment\",\"GDP and Activity\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/\",\"name\":\"Jobs and GDP growth - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-05-06T02:35:56+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-05-09T07:22:08+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Jobs and GDP growth\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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But what they overlook is that sales revenue is likely to fall. Less domestic wages equals less domestic consumer spending. GDP growth slows\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26099,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/02\/death-of-the-dollar\/","url_meta":{"origin":20464,"position":1},"title":"Death of the Dollar","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 2, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dollar, as the global reserve currency, is the single pillar holding up the global economy. It is in turn supported by six stays: interest rates, low inflation, a robust US economy, capital account inflows, a stable political system, and the military. Interest rates and employment Fed monetary policy sets\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":35614,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/09\/strong-wages-growth-warns-of-higher-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":20464,"position":2},"title":"Strong wages growth warns of higher interest rates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 9, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The US economy added 372,00 new jobs in June -- despite talk of hiring freezes at large retailers -- similar to the previous two months. Average hourly earnings continues to grow, coming in at 6.35% for the 12 months to June. Strong earnings growth reflects the labor shortage, where job\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-08-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-08-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-08-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-08-jobs.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16230,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/02\/is-gdp-doomed-to-low-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":20464,"position":3},"title":"Is GDP doomed to low growth?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 2, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"GDP failed to rebound after the 2008 Financial Crisis, sinking into a period of stubborn low growth. Economic commentators have advanced many explanations for the causes, while the consensus seems to be that this is the new normal, with the global economy destined to decades of poor growth. This is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":36202,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/06\/strong-us-labor-report-warns-of-further-rate-hikes\/","url_meta":{"origin":20464,"position":4},"title":"Strong US labor report bearish for stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 6, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The US economy added 528,00 new jobs in July, with total non-farm payroll reaching a new record of 152.536 million. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, close to its 60-year low of 3.4% (1969). The labor market remains tight, with job openings exceeding unemployment by 5 million. Estimated hours worked\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-05-nonfarm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-05-nonfarm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-05-nonfarm.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":32570,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/09\/us-labor-market-recovering-but-beware-high-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":20464,"position":5},"title":"US labor market recovering but beware of high interest rates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 9, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q1 and Q2 are weak, at annualized rates of 0.37% and 2.16% respectively. But our real GDP estimates, based on weekly hours worked, show an April recovery to 3.46% (annualized) after an erratic first quarter that averaged 2.24%. That is in line with 3.5% in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"GDPNow","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20464","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20464"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20464\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20495,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20464\/revisions\/20495"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20464"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20464"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20464"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}