{"id":20437,"date":"2020-05-02T00:23:55","date_gmt":"2020-05-02T00:23:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=20437"},"modified":"2020-05-02T05:56:06","modified_gmt":"2020-05-02T05:56:06","slug":"no-v-shaped-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"No V-shaped Recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Initial jobless claims in the US for the 6 weeks to April 25th exceed 30 million.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-05-01-initial%20claims.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Initial Jobless Claims\" \/><\/p>\n<p>That will take unemployment above 20%, with total jobs falling to levels last seen in 1997, and more job losses still to come.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-05-01-nonfarm-payroll.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Total Employment (Nonfarm Payroll)\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Employment is the key to economic recovery. While unemployment is high, consumer spending will stay low and the economy will struggle. Companies may receive bailouts and the Fed will keep financial markets awash with liquidity but that does not help falling sales.<\/p>\n<p>Be prepared. April employment numbers are going to be ugly. Expect some turbulence.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Initial jobless claims in the US for the 6 weeks to April 25th exceed 30 million. That will take unemployment above 20%, with total jobs falling to levels last seen in 1997, and more job losses still to come. Employment is the key to economic recovery. While unemployment is high, consumer spending will stay low &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;No V-shaped Recovery&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,3761,34],"tags":[799,4141,3026,3531],"class_list":["post-20437","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-consumer-spending","tag-initial-jobless-claims","tag-sales","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>No V-shaped Recovery - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"No V-shaped Recovery - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Initial jobless claims in the US for the 6 weeks to April 25th exceed 30 million. That will take unemployment above 20%, with total jobs falling to levels last seen in 1997, and more job losses still to come. Employment is the key to economic recovery. While unemployment is high, consumer spending will stay low &hellip; Continue reading &quot;No V-shaped Recovery&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-05-02T00:23:55+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-05-02T05:56:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-05-01-nonfarm-payroll.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"No V-shaped Recovery\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-05-02T00:23:55+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-05-02T05:56:06+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/\"},\"wordCount\":93,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-05-01-nonfarm-payroll.png\",\"keywords\":[\"consumer spending\",\"Initial Jobless Claims\",\"sales\",\"Unemployment\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment\",\"GDP and Activity\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/\",\"name\":\"No V-shaped Recovery - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-05-01-nonfarm-payroll.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-05-02T00:23:55+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-05-02T05:56:06+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-05-01-nonfarm-payroll.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-05-01-nonfarm-payroll.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"No V-shaped Recovery\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"No V-shaped Recovery - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"No V-shaped Recovery - the patient investor","og_description":"Initial jobless claims in the US for the 6 weeks to April 25th exceed 30 million. That will take unemployment above 20%, with total jobs falling to levels last seen in 1997, and more job losses still to come. Employment is the key to economic recovery. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-5jD","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":20484,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/09\/sharp-fall-in-us-jobs-warns-of-economic-contraction-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":20437,"position":0},"title":"Sharp fall in US jobs warns of economic contraction ahead","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 9, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Initial jobless claims filed in the US in the last 7 weeks now total 33.5 million. Total employment in April 2020 fell by 12.9% when compared to twelve months earlier. We use total hours worked (total payroll * average weekly hours) to estimate GDP growth. It does tend to overshoot\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":22489,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/07\/the-real-unemployment-rate\/","url_meta":{"origin":20437,"position":1},"title":"The real unemployment rate","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 7, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"During the week I wrote of only a partial recovery in employment. BLS data for October is now out and employment growth improved slightly to -6.0% year-on-year, compared to -6.4% last month, still well below the 2009 low of -5.0%. Initial jobless claims remain high, at 751,000 for the week\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":21547,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/09\/18\/its-all-about-jobs-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":20437,"position":2},"title":"It&#8217;s all about jobs","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 18, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Latest Department of Labor (DOL) figures show total unemployment claims for the week ended August 29 increased by 98,546. Total claims of 29.768 million amount to 19.5% of the February workforce of 152.463 million. This is not a V-shaped recovery. Almost 1 in 5 are unemployed and, even more concerning,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":21128,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/07\/31\/gdp-and-initial-claims-warn-of-slow-recovery\/","url_meta":{"origin":20437,"position":3},"title":"GDP and initial claims warn of slow recovery","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 31, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Real GDP fell -9.5%, on a year-on-year basis, for the second quarter 2020. The worst recorded contraction in the US since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Initial unemployment claims stepped up to 1.434 million for the week ending July 25th, warning of a protracted recession. Continued claims are also\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20886,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/07\/03\/jobs-up-but-no-v\/","url_meta":{"origin":20437,"position":4},"title":"Jobs up but no &#8220;V&#8221;","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 3, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The annual change in non-farm payroll improved to -8.7% for the 12 months ended June 2020. A sizable improvement as the economy re-opens. Initial jobless claims, however, remain high at 1.427 million for the week ending June 27. Of greater concern is the level of continued unemployment claims: 17.92 million\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":43753,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/31\/job-openings-fall-but-some-sectors-still-booming\/","url_meta":{"origin":20437,"position":5},"title":"Job openings fall but some sectors still booming","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 31, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Job openings declined to 8.8 million, narrowing the gap to near-record-low unemployment at 5.8 million. The labor market remains tight but the fall indicates that the economy is slowing. Declining quit rates tell a similar story: pressure is easing but the current high level indicates there is more to go\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Job Openings & Unemployment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-29-jolts-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-29-jolts-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-29-jolts-u3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20437","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20437"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20437\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20438,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20437\/revisions\/20438"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20437"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20437"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20437"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}