{"id":20140,"date":"2020-03-27T07:14:17","date_gmt":"2020-03-27T07:14:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=20140"},"modified":"2020-03-27T08:05:14","modified_gmt":"2020-03-27T08:05:14","slug":"dow-not-so-fast-wsj","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/27\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\/","title":{"rendered":"Dow: Not so fast WSJ"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We were surprised to receive this from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/global-stock-markets-dow-update-3-26-2020-11585196225\">The Wall Street Journal<\/a> this morning:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Markets Alert<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Dow Industrials Rally, Ending Bear Market<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A new bull market has begun. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied more than 20% since hitting a low three days ago, ending the shortest bear market ever.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-03-26-dow.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" \/><\/p>\n<p>That is news to us. A 20% reversal is a quick rule of thumb used by brokers. It is not part of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/technical\/dow_theory.php\">Dow Theory<\/a>. To suggest that we are now in a bull market is ludicrous.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/technical\/dow_theory.php\">Dow Theory<\/a> tracks secondary movements in the index which last from ten to sixty days (Nelson, 1903). Only if the secondary movement forms <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/technical\/dow_theory_trends.php\">a higher trough followed by a higher peak<\/a> does that signal reversal to an up-trend. And the same pattern has to occur on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/technical\/dow_theory_confirmation.php\">Transport Average to confirm the change<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>A three-day rally is a normal part of a bear market and, with volatility near record highs, it is likely that some rallies are going to reach 20 per cent.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-03-26-dow-q.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bear markets are more volatile than bull markets. You can see this from the volatility spikes above in 1991, 2000-2003, 2008, and 2020. Stocks go <em>up on the escalator and down in the elevator<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>According to data from S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices, most days with the biggest gains occur in a bear market. Eighteen of the top twenty biggest daily % gains on the Dow occurred in a bear market. Only two (marked in blue) were in a bull market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-03-27-dow-gains.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The largest gains in the 1930s bear market were as high as 15% in a single day!<\/p>\n<p>Interesting that eighteen of the top twenty biggest daily % losses on the Dow also occurred in a bear market (red).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-03-27-dow-losses.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" \/><\/p>\n<p>That is because volatility is a lot higher in bear markets than in bull markets.<\/p>\n<p>So expect big moves in both directions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We were surprised to receive this from The Wall Street Journal this morning: Markets Alert Dow Industrials Rally, Ending Bear Market A new bull market has begun. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied more than 20% since hitting a low three days ago, ending the shortest bear market ever. That is news to us. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/27\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Dow: Not so fast WSJ&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[4279,4280,1113,4278,3617],"class_list":["post-20140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-biggest-daily-gains","tag-biggest-daily-losses","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-dow-theory","tag-volatility"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Dow: Not so fast WSJ - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dow: Not so fast WSJ - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We were surprised to receive this from The Wall Street Journal this morning: Markets Alert Dow Industrials Rally, Ending Bear Market A new bull market has begun. 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That is news to us. &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Dow: Not so fast WSJ&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/27\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-03-27T07:14:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-03-27T08:05:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-03-26-dow.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/27\\\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/27\\\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Dow: Not so fast WSJ\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-03-27T07:14:17+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-03-27T08:05:14+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/27\\\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":306,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/27\\\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2020\\\/2020-03-26-dow.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Biggest Daily % Gains\",\"Biggest Daily % Losses\",\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\",\"Dow Theory\",\"volatility\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Stock Markets\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/27\\\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/27\\\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\\\/\",\"name\":\"Dow: Not so fast WSJ - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/27\\\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/27\\\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2020\\\/2020-03-26-dow.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-03-27T07:14:17+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-03-27T08:05:14+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/27\\\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/27\\\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/27\\\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2020\\\/2020-03-26-dow.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2020\\\/2020-03-26-dow.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/27\\\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Dow: Not so fast WSJ\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-5eQ","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":14830,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/02\/17\/dow-and-nasdaq-its-a-bull-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":20140,"position":0},"title":"Dow and Nasdaq: It&#8217;s a bull market","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 17, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The Nasdaq 100 is in blue sky territory, having broken clear of its Dotcom high at 4900. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow signal long-term buying pressure. A correction to test the new support level remains likely but this is unlikely to upset the bull market. The Dow Jones Industrial\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61354,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/11\/bear-market-confirmed\/","url_meta":{"origin":20140,"position":1},"title":"Bear market confirmed","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 11, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41,433 after marginally breaking primary support at 42,000 yesterday. This confirms a bear market in terms of Dow Theory. Confirmation comes after an earlier bear signal, breaching primary support on the Transportation Average below. The S&P 500 also signals a primary downtrend after\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":14559,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/11\/25\/its-a-bull-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":20140,"position":2},"title":"It&#8217;s a bull market","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 25, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average successfully tested the new support level at 18000 and has now broken resistance at 19000, confirming the target of 20000*. Rising Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure has ended. Expect a brief retracement to test support at 19000 but respect is likely. * Target medium-term: 18000\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2481,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/30\/dow-in-strong-bear-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":20140,"position":3},"title":"Dow in strong bear rally","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 30, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied strongly in response to news of a European rescue by major central banks. Sharp rallies are typical of shorts covering in a bear market. Strong volume indicates resistance -- if you look back over the last few months (ignore triple-witching at [W]) volume above 200\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61320,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/05\/sp-and-dow-threaten-a-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":20140,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P and Dow threaten a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 5, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is testing primary support at 5750, shown on the weekly chart below. A breach would signal a primary downtrend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is similarly headed for a test of primary support at 42K. The Transportation Index is already in a primary downtrend signaled by breach\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":3420,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/02\/06\/bull-market-signaled-as-liquidity-soars\/","url_meta":{"origin":20140,"position":5},"title":"Bull market signaled as liquidity soars","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 6, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Central banks are flooding the markets with liquidity, causing stocks to rise despite weak fundamentals. Large bearish divergences on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow for Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq 100 highlight the precarious nature of the current rally. But, as I said earlier, don't bet on this ending before the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20140","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20140"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20140\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20145,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20140\/revisions\/20145"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}