{"id":20140,"date":"2020-03-27T07:14:17","date_gmt":"2020-03-27T07:14:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=20140"},"modified":"2020-03-27T08:05:14","modified_gmt":"2020-03-27T08:05:14","slug":"dow-not-so-fast-wsj","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/27\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\/","title":{"rendered":"Dow: Not so fast WSJ"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We were surprised to receive this from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/global-stock-markets-dow-update-3-26-2020-11585196225\">The Wall Street Journal<\/a> this morning:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Markets Alert<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Dow Industrials Rally, Ending Bear Market<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A new bull market has begun. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied more than 20% since hitting a low three days ago, ending the shortest bear market ever.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-03-26-dow.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" \/><\/p>\n<p>That is news to us. A 20% reversal is a quick rule of thumb used by brokers. It is not part of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/technical\/dow_theory.php\">Dow Theory<\/a>. To suggest that we are now in a bull market is ludicrous.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/technical\/dow_theory.php\">Dow Theory<\/a> tracks secondary movements in the index which last from ten to sixty days (Nelson, 1903). Only if the secondary movement forms <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/technical\/dow_theory_trends.php\">a higher trough followed by a higher peak<\/a> does that signal reversal to an up-trend. And the same pattern has to occur on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/technical\/dow_theory_confirmation.php\">Transport Average to confirm the change<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>A three-day rally is a normal part of a bear market and, with volatility near record highs, it is likely that some rallies are going to reach 20 per cent.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-03-26-dow-q.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bear markets are more volatile than bull markets. You can see this from the volatility spikes above in 1991, 2000-2003, 2008, and 2020. Stocks go <em>up on the escalator and down in the elevator<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>According to data from S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices, most days with the biggest gains occur in a bear market. Eighteen of the top twenty biggest daily % gains on the Dow occurred in a bear market. Only two (marked in blue) were in a bull market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-03-27-dow-gains.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The largest gains in the 1930s bear market were as high as 15% in a single day!<\/p>\n<p>Interesting that eighteen of the top twenty biggest daily % losses on the Dow also occurred in a bear market (red).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-03-27-dow-losses.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" \/><\/p>\n<p>That is because volatility is a lot higher in bear markets than in bull markets.<\/p>\n<p>So expect big moves in both directions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We were surprised to receive this from The Wall Street Journal this morning: Markets Alert Dow Industrials Rally, Ending Bear Market A new bull market has begun. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied more than 20% since hitting a low three days ago, ending the shortest bear market ever. That is news to us. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/27\/dow-not-so-fast-wsj\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Dow: Not so fast WSJ&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[4279,4280,1113,4278,3617],"class_list":["post-20140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-biggest-daily-gains","tag-biggest-daily-losses","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-dow-theory","tag-volatility"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Dow: Not so fast WSJ - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dow: Not so fast WSJ - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We were surprised to receive this from The Wall Street Journal this morning: Markets Alert Dow Industrials Rally, Ending Bear Market A new bull market has begun. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-5eQ","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":14830,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/02\/17\/dow-and-nasdaq-its-a-bull-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":20140,"position":0},"title":"Dow and Nasdaq: It&#8217;s a bull market","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 17, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The Nasdaq 100 is in blue sky territory, having broken clear of its Dotcom high at 4900. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow signal long-term buying pressure. A correction to test the new support level remains likely but this is unlikely to upset the bull market. The Dow Jones Industrial\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14559,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/11\/25\/its-a-bull-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":20140,"position":1},"title":"It&#8217;s a bull market","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 25, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average successfully tested the new support level at 18000 and has now broken resistance at 19000, confirming the target of 20000*. Rising Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure has ended. Expect a brief retracement to test support at 19000 but respect is likely. * Target medium-term: 18000\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61354,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/11\/bear-market-confirmed\/","url_meta":{"origin":20140,"position":2},"title":"Bear market confirmed","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 11, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41,433 after marginally breaking primary support at 42,000 yesterday. This confirms a bear market in terms of Dow Theory. Confirmation comes after an earlier bear signal, breaching primary support on the Transportation Average below. The S&P 500 also signals a primary downtrend after\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2481,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/30\/dow-in-strong-bear-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":20140,"position":3},"title":"Dow in strong bear rally","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 30, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied strongly in response to news of a European rescue by major central banks. Sharp rallies are typical of shorts covering in a bear market. Strong volume indicates resistance -- if you look back over the last few months (ignore triple-witching at [W]) volume above 200\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61320,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/05\/sp-and-dow-threaten-a-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":20140,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P and Dow threaten a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 5, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is testing primary support at 5750, shown on the weekly chart below. A breach would signal a primary downtrend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is similarly headed for a test of primary support at 42K. The Transportation Index is already in a primary downtrend signaled by breach\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":3420,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/02\/06\/bull-market-signaled-as-liquidity-soars\/","url_meta":{"origin":20140,"position":5},"title":"Bull market signaled as liquidity soars","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 6, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Central banks are flooding the markets with liquidity, causing stocks to rise despite weak fundamentals. Large bearish divergences on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow for Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq 100 highlight the precarious nature of the current rally. But, as I said earlier, don't bet on this ending before the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20140","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20140"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20140\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20145,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20140\/revisions\/20145"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}