{"id":19788,"date":"2020-02-14T21:37:32","date_gmt":"2020-02-14T21:37:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19788"},"modified":"2020-02-17T07:48:33","modified_gmt":"2020-02-17T07:48:33","slug":"a-worm-in-the-apple","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/14\/a-worm-in-the-apple\/","title":{"rendered":"A worm in the Apple"},"content":{"rendered":"

Apple Inc (AAPL) enjoyed stellar growth over the past 12 months, jumping more than 50%.<\/p>\n

\"Apple<\/p>\n

But is that due to solid operating performance or window-dressing, with almost $140 billion of stock buybacks in the last two years?<\/p>\n

\"Apple<\/p>\n

Free cash flow \u2014 operating cash flow less stock compensation and investment in plant and equipment \u2014 has been falling since 2015.<\/p>\n

\"Apple<\/p>\n

And the company has depleted its cash reserves over the last two years, to fund stock buybacks. The graph below depicts the change in Apple’s net cash position (cash plus marketable securities less debt).<\/p>\n

\"Apple<\/p>\n

So why the management enthusiasm for stock buybacks?<\/p>\n

Is the stock a good investment? No. Free cash flow per share has barely lifted since 2015 despite $237.5 billion used to repurchase 1144 million shares.<\/p>\n

\"Apple<\/p>\n

Apple have returned surplus cash to stockholders in the most tax-efficient way possible, by buying back stock rather than paying dividends. The added bonus is the reduced share count which gooses up earnings per share growth and return on equity.<\/p>\n

\"Apple<\/p>\n

Investors in turn get excited and run up earnings multiples. The current price\/free cash flow ratio of 23.2 exceeds that of the heady growth days up to 2015.<\/p>\n

\"Apple<\/p>\n

The stock keeps climbing, supported by buybacks and rosy EPS projections. The problem for Apple is when they run out of cash, or exceed reasonable debt levels, then the band will stop playing and those heady multiples are likely to come crashing down to earth.<\/p>\n

It’s not only Apple that’s doing this. The entire S&P 500 is distributing more by way of buybacks and dividends than it makes in earnings, eating into reserves meant to fund new investment.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

The result is likely to be low growth and even more precarious earnings multiples.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Apple Inc (AAPL) enjoyed stellar growth over the past 12 months, jumping more than 50%. But is that due to solid operating performance or window-dressing, with almost $140 billion of stock buybacks in the last two years? Free cash flow \u2014 operating cash flow less stock compensation and investment in plant and equipment \u2014 has … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “A worm in the Apple”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[107,4002,3010,3249],"class_list":["post-19788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-aapl","tag-apple-inc","tag-sp-500","tag-stock-buybacks"],"yoast_head":"\nA worm in the Apple - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A worm in the Apple - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Apple Inc (AAPL) enjoyed stellar growth over the past 12 months, jumping more than 50%. But is that due to solid operating performance or window-dressing, with almost $140 billion of stock buybacks in the last two years? 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-59a","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":18597,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/01\/apple-inc-aapl-buybacks-dont-help\/","url_meta":{"origin":19788,"position":0},"title":"Apple Inc. (AAPL) – window dressing with buybacks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 1, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Apple (AAPL) is a notable omission in my international model portfolio. Here is one of the reasons. Michael Santoli at CNBC reports that Apple's sales and earnings over the past 4 years are essentially flat. The only metric that has improved is earnings per share (EPS) because of stock buybacks.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "International Growth"","block_context":{"text":"International Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/international-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20478,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/07\/apple-inc-aapl-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":19788,"position":1},"title":"Apple Inc (AAPL)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 7, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Apple Inc Exchange: NASDAQ Symbol: AAPL Date: 7-May-20 Latest price: $300.63 Market Cap: $1.3 Tn Fair Value: $181.52 Forward P\/E: 25.06 FV Payback (Years): 11 Forward Dividend Yield: 1.10% Debt\/FCF: 2.1 Financial Y\/E: 28-Sep-20 Rating: HOLD Sector: Technology Industry: Consumer Electronics Investment Theme: LT Growth Structural Trends: Growth of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "International Growth"","block_context":{"text":"International Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/international-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17503,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/29\/mastercard-ma\/","url_meta":{"origin":19788,"position":2},"title":"Mastercard (MA)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 29, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Mastercard Inc. Symbol: MA Exchange: NYSE Financial Year-end: 31 December Latest price: $202.28 Market cap: $208.9 billion Date: November 28, 2018 We have updated the Valuation section to facilitate comparison with Visa. Sector: Financial Services Industry: Payment Services Investment Theme: Long-term Growth Structural Trends: Growth of electronic payments and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "International Growth"","block_context":{"text":"International Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/international-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17267,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/02\/mastercard-inc-ma\/","url_meta":{"origin":19788,"position":3},"title":"Mastercard Inc. (MA)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 2, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Mastercard Inc. Symbol: MA Exchange: NYSE Financial Year-end: 31 December Latest price: $199.71 Market cap: $206 billion Date: November 1, 2018 Sector: Financial Services Industry: Payment Services Investment Theme: Long-term Growth Structural Trends: Growth of electronic payments and online services. Financial Performance Revenue Revenue growth has averaged 16.4% per\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "International Growth"","block_context":{"text":"International Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/international-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20491,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/09\/sp-500\/","url_meta":{"origin":19788,"position":4},"title":"S&P 500: Watch Money Flow","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 9, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 index is headed for a test of resistance at 3000. Volatility remains at extreme levels and chances that this rally will fail are high. Earnings for S&P 500 stocks are forecast to fall by 40% when compared to the March quarter last year and 38% for the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26744,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/07\/10\/the-tesla-in-the-coal-mine\/","url_meta":{"origin":19788,"position":5},"title":"A Tesla in the coal mine","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 10, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"All five US technology behemoths -- Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Facebook (FB) and Microsoft (MSFT) -- show strong up-trends over the past 6 months, boosted by strong inflows from international investors who are giving the bond market a wide berth. But the canary in the coal mine is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19788","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19788"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19788\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19793,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19788\/revisions\/19793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}