{"id":19717,"date":"2020-02-01T04:01:21","date_gmt":"2020-02-01T04:01:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19717"},"modified":"2020-02-28T04:01:09","modified_gmt":"2020-02-28T04:01:09","slug":"the-novel-coronavirus-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/01\/the-novel-coronavirus-threat\/","title":{"rendered":"The Coronavirus Threat"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a &#8220;global health emergency&#8221; according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Restricted travel is already having an impact on the global economy, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2020\/01\/31\/goldman-sachs-coronavirus-to-weigh-on-us-economic-growth-this-quarter.html\">Goldman Sachs<\/a> anticipating a 0.4% fall in U.S. annualized GDP growth in the first quarter.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.imperial.ac.uk\/media\/imperial-college\/medicine\/sph\/ide\/gida-fellowships\/Imperial-2019-nCoV-transmissibility.pdf\">Imperial College in London<\/a> estimates a dangerously high transmission rate for the disease:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Self-sustaining human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) is the only plausible explanation of the scale of the outbreak in Wuhan. We estimate that, on average, each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5) other people up to 18th January 2020, based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan with computational modelling of potential epidemic trajectories. This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak&#8230;.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com\/apps\/opsdashboard\/index.html#\/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6\">Johns Hopkins University CSSE<\/a> reports 11,374 confirmed cases with 259 deaths and 252 recoveries as of 7.00 p.m. on January 31, 2020. Growth of the\u00a0 number of reported cases in Mainland China appears linear, with an increase of 1,700 per day.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-01-31-jhu-ncov-spread.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"JHU CSSE 2019-nCOV spread\" \/><\/p>\n<p>That seems highly suspicious when one compares to mathematical modeling and to social media reports from medical staff on the ground. Contagion rates are likely to grow exponentially, rather than in a straight line, and will only peak when authorities are able to bring the transmission rate below 1.0 (compared to the 2.6 posited by Imperial College).<\/p>\n<p>A report in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/chinese-authorities-manipulate-tally-of-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-by-controlling-the-supply-of-diagnosis-kits_3217914.html\/amp\">Epoch Times<\/a> suggests that Chinese public health authorities have suppressed the reporting of confirmed cases:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;The outbreak of Wuhan coronavirus is far bigger than the official figures released by Chinese public health authorities who cover up the severity by limiting the number of diagnosis kits to Wuhan hospitals, according to an insider and an independent journalist.<\/p>\n<p>The insider and the independent journalist both say that diagnosis kits are only provided to certain &#8216;qualifying hospitals&#8217; and in very limited quantities. Medical personnel at these hospitals have said that the number of kits they are supplied is less than 10 percent of what they need to test patients.<\/p>\n<p>Now these hospitals claim that their responsibility at present is to provide treatment only, and they will not perform any diagnoses.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>UK researcher <a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf\">Jonathan Read<\/a> projects that the epidemic in Wuhan will reach 191,529 by February 4 (prediction interval 132,751-273,649). Chart A shows total number of infections in black and new infections per day in red.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/nCOV-wuhan.jpg?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"2019-nCOV predicted infection rate - Wuhan\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/nCOV-china.jpg?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"2019-nCOV predicted infection rate - Mainland China\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Restriction of road, rail and air travel to\/from Wuhan is expected to achieve between 12.5% and 25% reduction in cases in the above areas.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/nCOV-usa.jpg?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"2019-nCOV predicted infection rate - World\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Importations into other countries may also be slowed by travel restrictions.<\/p>\n<p>Mortalities are not limited to young children and the elderly and infirm as with most influenza viruses. Healthy adults, including health care workers, are dying. Reported recoveries (252) are low and provide an indication as to the severity of the infection.<\/p>\n<p>Modelling suggests that the number of cases will <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/r29Euwb10k4\">double every seven days<\/a> until it peaks. The peak number of cases will depend on how long it takes to contain the outbreak. Another four weeks would pose a serious threat to the global economy.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Where Fortune is concerned: she shows her force where there is no organized strength to resist her; and she directs her impact there where she knows that no dikes and embankments are constructed to hold her. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli, The Prince (1532)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a &#8220;global health emergency&#8221; according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Restricted travel is already having an impact on the global economy, with Goldman Sachs anticipating a 0.4% fall in U.S. annualized GDP growth in the first quarter. Imperial College in London estimates a dangerously high transmission rate &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/01\/the-novel-coronavirus-threat\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The Coronavirus Threat&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,29],"tags":[4204,663,4205],"class_list":["post-19717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-the-big-picture","tag-2019-ncov","tag-china","tag-novel-coronavirus"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Coronavirus Threat - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Coronavirus Threat - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a &#8220;global health emergency&#8221; according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Restricted travel is already having an impact on the global economy, with Goldman Sachs anticipating a 0.4% fall in U.S. annualized GDP growth in the first quarter. Imperial College in London estimates a dangerously high transmission rate &hellip; Continue reading &quot;The Coronavirus Threat&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/01\/the-novel-coronavirus-threat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-02-01T04:01:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-02-28T04:01:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-01-31-jhu-ncov-spread.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/01\/the-novel-coronavirus-threat\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/01\/the-novel-coronavirus-threat\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"The Coronavirus Threat\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-02-01T04:01:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-02-28T04:01:09+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/01\/the-novel-coronavirus-threat\/\"},\"wordCount\":551,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/01\/the-novel-coronavirus-threat\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-01-31-jhu-ncov-spread.png\",\"keywords\":[\"2019-nCOV\",\"China\",\"novel coronavirus\"],\"articleSection\":[\"China &amp; HK\",\"The Big Picture\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/01\/the-novel-coronavirus-threat\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/01\/the-novel-coronavirus-threat\/\",\"name\":\"The Coronavirus Threat - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/01\/the-novel-coronavirus-threat\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/01\/the-novel-coronavirus-threat\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-01-31-jhu-ncov-spread.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-02-01T04:01:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-02-28T04:01:09+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/01\/the-novel-coronavirus-threat\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/01\/the-novel-coronavirus-threat\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/01\/the-novel-coronavirus-threat\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-01-31-jhu-ncov-spread.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-01-31-jhu-ncov-spread.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/01\/the-novel-coronavirus-threat\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The Coronavirus Threat\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Expect a test of primary support at 50. China's largest LNG importer, state-owned CNOOC, invoked force majeure in order to get out of LNG supply contracts: Dow Jones - UBS Commodity Index broke primary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19810,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/22\/china-ccp-lies-and-the-coronavirus\/","url_meta":{"origin":19717,"position":1},"title":"China: CCP lies and the Coronavirus","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 22, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The CCP is trying to create the illusion that the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak is under control and the economy will soon bounce back from the brief interruption. But all is not what it seems.... COVID19 Official reported COVID-19 figures from China show a dramatic fall in confirmed new cases. Unfortunately\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19831,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/29\/the-fed-has-no-vaccine-for-covid-19\/","url_meta":{"origin":19717,"position":2},"title":"The Fed has no vaccine for COVID-19","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 29, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The World Health Organization has not yet declared the COVID-19 coronavirus a global pandemic but investors are not waiting. Spooked by the rapid explosion of cases outside of China \u2014 South Korea now has 2,931 confirmed cases and Italy 889; \u2014 and dire warnings from health professionals, investors are fleeing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19784,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/14\/asx-banks-and-covid-19\/","url_meta":{"origin":19717,"position":3},"title":"ASX Banks and COVID-19","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 14, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 rallied off support at 6900\/7000, confirming the recent bull signal. A rising Trend Index indicates buying pressure and we should expect a fresh advance, with a long-term target of 7400. The headwind of falling commodity prices was softened, by optimism that China will contain the coronavirus outbreak,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20181,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/02\/a-coronavirus-recession-how-long-will-it-last\/","url_meta":{"origin":19717,"position":4},"title":"Coronavirus: &#8220;We are all Keynesians now&#8221;","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 2, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"An economic depression requires a 10% (or more) decline in real GDP or a prolonged recession that lasts two or more years. The current contraction, sparked by the global coronavirus outbreak, is likely to be severe but its magnitude and duration are still uncertain. After an initial spike in cases,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19912,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/09\/china-grim-outlook-for-business\/","url_meta":{"origin":19717,"position":5},"title":"China: Grim outlook for business","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 9, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Trivium China\/21st Century Biz report: Last Friday, the China Enterprise Confederation (CEC) released the results of another survey assessing the Q1 performance of 299 large manufacturers.... Of the companies surveyed, one-third are SOEs and the rest are private Chinese companies. The results were predictably grim: Over 95% of companies saw\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19717","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19717"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19717\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19728,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19717\/revisions\/19728"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}