{"id":19692,"date":"2020-01-25T01:09:18","date_gmt":"2020-01-25T01:09:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19692"},"modified":"2020-02-28T04:02:24","modified_gmt":"2020-02-28T04:02:24","slug":"sp-500-in-a-precarious-position","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/25\/sp-500-in-a-precarious-position\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 in a precarious position"},"content":{"rendered":"

A long-term chart of the S&P 500 highlights the precarious position of the index, having now doubled since its October 2007 high at 1576. Any time that a stock doubles in price, you are likely to get profit-taking, leading to resistance. The same holds true for the index. Probably even more so because individual stocks have the capacity to post higher gains \u2014 of even 5 or 10 times \u2014 while that isn’t feasible for the index. Even in the Dotcom bubble.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

On the one hand we have a massive triple stimulus creating irrational exuberance<\/a>, while on the other we have concerns over a coronavirus epidemic spreading from China and Donald Trump’s looming impeachment.<\/p>\n

\"CoronaVirus\"<\/a><\/p>\n

If you think that Trump is a shoe-in for re-election in November, this analysis of his chances is quite eye-opening.<\/p>\n

\"Trump:<\/a><\/p>\n

Expect more erratic behavior in the lead up to November.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A long-term chart of the S&P 500 highlights the precarious position of the index, having now doubled since its October 2007 high at 1576. Any time that a stock doubles in price, you are likely to get profit-taking, leading to resistance. The same holds true for the index. Probably even more so because individual stocks … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500 in a precarious position”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,29,34],"tags":[4197,2506,3010],"class_list":["post-19692","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-the-big-picture","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-coronavirus","tag-november-election","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500 in a precarious position - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500 in a precarious position - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A long-term chart of the S&P 500 highlights the precarious position of the index, having now doubled since its October 2007 high at 1576. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-57C","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":21393,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/09\/04\/time-to-sell-tech-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":19692,"position":0},"title":"Time to sell tech stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 4, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"US technology stocks have had an amazing run, boosted by massive Fed QE and government stimulus, but the punch-bowl is running dry and the party is likely to end soon. Volatility on the S&P 500 has turned up. A trough above 1% is a strong bear signal. Reversal below support\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19765,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/08\/sp-500-and-nasdaq-soar-as-commodities-plunge\/","url_meta":{"origin":19692,"position":1},"title":"S&P 500 and Nasdaq soar as Commodities plunge","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 8, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Commodities Brent crude dropped to $54\/barrel on fears that the coronavirus outbreak will slow Chinese imports. Expect a test of primary support at 50. China's largest LNG importer, state-owned CNOOC, invoked force majeure in order to get out of LNG supply contracts: Dow Jones - UBS Commodity Index broke primary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":21333,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/29\/sp-500-and-stock-market-bubbles\/","url_meta":{"origin":19692,"position":2},"title":"S&P 500: Another stock market bubble?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 29, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"We see plenty of charts comparing major indices to GDP. Both the S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 made new highs relative to GDP, warning that stock pricing is at a new extreme. But comparing indices like these to an economy-wide measure like GDP is inaccurate for two key reasons: Index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GDP and Activity"","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2591,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/10\/sp-500-hovers-near-tipping-point\/","url_meta":{"origin":19692,"position":3},"title":"S&P 500 hovers near tipping point","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 10, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 index recovered above medium-term support at 1220\/1250, with a short surge in buying pressure, but the situation remains precarious. Breakout above 1300 would indicate that the threat of another bear market has passed, but reversal below 1160 remains as likely -- and would warn of another test\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8964,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/01\/19\/bull-market-but-correction-overdue\/","url_meta":{"origin":19692,"position":4},"title":"Bull market but correction overdue","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 19, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have exceeded their targets. Absence of a significant correction for several months indicates extreme bullishness, but makes the advance more precarious as buyer\/seller imbalances grow. The S&P 500 is testing medium-term resistance at 1850. Breakout would confirm a target of 1900*. Respect is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-01-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-01-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-01-20-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20491,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/09\/sp-500\/","url_meta":{"origin":19692,"position":5},"title":"S&P 500: Watch Money Flow","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 9, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 index is headed for a test of resistance at 3000. Volatility remains at extreme levels and chances that this rally will fail are high. Earnings for S&P 500 stocks are forecast to fall by 40% when compared to the March quarter last year and 38% for the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19692","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19692"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19692\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19694,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19692\/revisions\/19694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19692"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19692"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19692"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}