{"id":19673,"date":"2020-01-22T05:54:14","date_gmt":"2020-01-22T05:54:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19673"},"modified":"2020-01-22T23:13:05","modified_gmt":"2020-01-22T23:13:05","slug":"global-commodities-economic-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/22\/global-commodities-economic-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"Commodities &#038; Global Growth"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Commodity prices warn that the global economy is still in a slump.<\/p>\n<p>The Dow Jones &#8211; UBS Commodity Index remains at one-third of its 2007 peak, with no sign of recovery.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-01-22-dubs.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"DJ-UBS Commodity Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The fall in crude prices hasn&#8217;t been as severe, but Brent Crude is again weakening and looks set for another test of $50\/barrel.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-01-22-brent.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Brent Crude\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Shipping rates for dry bulk goods, such as iron ore and coal, have fallen, with the Baltic Dry Index close to long-term support at 500.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-01-22-bdi.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Baltic Dry Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Supply interruptions to iron ore production in Brazil have cushioned Australian producers from a sharp down-turn in iron ore prices. But coal exporters are feeling the pinch.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-01-22-aus-bulkcommodities.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"RBA Chart Pack: Bulk Commodity Prices\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Recovery of Brazilian production over the next two years is expected to add downward pressure to iron ore prices.<\/p>\n<p>The only positive appears to be container shipping rates. The Harpex Index rose steeply in 2019, reflecting increased demand for container shipping of finished goods.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/2020-01-22-harpex.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Harpex Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Somewhat surprising, since this coincided with US-China trade tensions and tariff increases. The answer may lie with importers on both sides of the Pacific attempting to front-run the imposition of tariffs and build inventories in case of supply interruptions and to allow time to adapt their supply chain. Expect the index to retreat in the early part of 2020.<\/p>\n<p>It looks like low global growth will continue.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Commodity prices warn that the global economy is still in a slump. The Dow Jones &#8211; UBS Commodity Index remains at one-third of its 2007 peak, with no sign of recovery. The fall in crude prices hasn&#8217;t been as severe, but Brent Crude is again weakening and looks set for another test of $50\/barrel. Shipping &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/22\/global-commodities-economic-growth\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Commodities &#038; Global Growth&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43,44,3761],"tags":[338,495,1064,1652],"class_list":["post-19673","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-gdp-and-activity","tag-baltic-dry-index","tag-brent-crude","tag-dj-ubs-commodity-index","tag-harpex-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Commodities &amp; Global Growth - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Commodities &amp; Global Growth - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Commodity prices warn that the global economy is still in a slump. The Dow Jones &#8211; UBS Commodity Index remains at one-third of its 2007 peak, with no sign of recovery. The fall in crude prices hasn&#8217;t been as severe, but Brent Crude is again weakening and looks set for another test of $50\/barrel. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-57j","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":10466,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/31\/commodities-weaken-on-soft-demand\/","url_meta":{"origin":19673,"position":0},"title":"Commodities weaken on soft demand","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 31, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Crude oil prices fell sharply in July, especially Brent Crude [pink] which is testing support at $104\/$106 per barrel. Breach of that support level, or $98\/$100 for Nymex Light Crude, would signal a primary down-trend. Commodity prices have weakened in sympathy, with Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index falling sharply since breaking\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-31-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-31-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-31-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19765,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/08\/sp-500-and-nasdaq-soar-as-commodities-plunge\/","url_meta":{"origin":19673,"position":1},"title":"S&#038;P 500 and Nasdaq soar as Commodities plunge","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 8, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Commodities Brent crude dropped to $54\/barrel on fears that the coronavirus outbreak will slow Chinese imports. Expect a test of primary support at 50. China's largest LNG importer, state-owned CNOOC, invoked force majeure in order to get out of LNG supply contracts: Dow Jones - UBS Commodity Index broke primary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":22927,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/28\/commodities-and-global-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":19673,"position":2},"title":"Commodities and global growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 28, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The Harper Petersen index of shipping rates for container vessels (Harpex) rose to 1009, having broken clear of resistance around 750. Rising demand for container shipping suggests that manufacturing and finished goods exports are recovering. Copper and Iron ore prices are trending upwards. But the Baltic Dry Index, reflecting dry\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10569,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/07\/falling-crude-prices-are-good-news\/","url_meta":{"origin":19673,"position":3},"title":"Falling crude prices are good news","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 7, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Crude oil prices are falling sharply. Nymex Light Crude broke support at $98\/barrel and Brent Crude is testing support at $104. Breach of that support level would confirm a primary down-trend. The theory has been bandied about that lower crude prices are a Barack Obama strategy to deter Vladimir Putin\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-07-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-07-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-07-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":30701,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/01\/commodities-divergence-warns-of-a-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":19673,"position":4},"title":"Commodity divergences warn of a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 1, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Commodity prices, to state the obvious, are determined by supply and demand. Demand normally fluctuates in line with the business cycle but supply only increments in large steps -- the primary cause of commodity cycles. Mothballed mines, for instance, may be brought back into production with a lag of less\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-01-cb.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-01-cb.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-01-cb.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-01-cb.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9268,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/02\/20\/crude-and-commodities-signal-up-trend\/","url_meta":{"origin":19673,"position":5},"title":"Crude and commodities signal recovery","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 20, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index followed through above resistance at 128, after breaking its descending trendline, completing a double bottom reversal with a target of 134*. Breakout above 134 would confirm a primary up-trend. * Target calculation: 128 + ( 128 - 122 ) = 134 Nymex Light Crude followed,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19673","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19673"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19673\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19676,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19673\/revisions\/19676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19673"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19673"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19673"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}