{"id":19613,"date":"2020-01-11T04:35:31","date_gmt":"2020-01-11T04:35:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19613"},"modified":"2020-01-11T04:35:31","modified_gmt":"2020-01-11T04:35:31","slug":"playing-the-long-game","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/playing-the-long-game\/","title":{"rendered":"Playing the long game"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Chart for the Week<\/h2>\n<p>GDP growth is slowing, while US corporate profits (before tax) are also declining as a percentage of GDP.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-profits-gdp.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Corporate profits Before Tax\/GDP\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Yet the S&amp;P 500 and other major indices are rising, lifted by Fed liquidity injections in the repo market. The red line shows total assets on the Fed&#8217;s balance sheet.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-fedassets.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 and Fed Assets\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>The Long Game<\/h2>\n<p>We play the long game \u2014 reducing exposure to equities when market risks are high and staying on the defensive until normality is restored \u2014 even if this means sitting on cash while equities rise. The only alternative, unless you trust your ability to accurately identify exact market tops and bottoms, is to hang on to your positions no matter what happens. But there are few individuals who can withstand the stress and make rational decisions during a major market draw-down.<\/p>\n<h2>Updates for Market Analysis Subscribers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/sp-500-stocks-lift-but-jobs-and-profits-a-red-flag\/\" aria-current=\"page\">S&amp;P 500: Stocks lift but jobs and profits a red flag<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/asx-200-breakout-4\/\">ASX 200 breakout<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/australia-bearish-apart-from-mining\/\">Australia: Bearish apart from mining<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/gold-bearish-on-imminent-phase-1-deal\/\">Gold bearish on imminent phase 1 deal<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Best wishes for the New Year. It promises to be an eventful one.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chart for the Week GDP growth is slowing, while US corporate profits (before tax) are also declining as a percentage of GDP. Yet the S&amp;P 500 and other major indices are rising, lifted by Fed liquidity injections in the repo market. The red line shows total assets on the Fed&#8217;s balance sheet. The Long Game &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/playing-the-long-game\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Playing the long game&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,3761,34],"tags":[4179,4150,3010],"class_list":["post-19613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-gdp-and-activity","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-corporate-profits-before-tax","tag-fed-balance-sheet","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Playing the long game - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Playing the long game - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Chart for the Week GDP growth is slowing, while US corporate profits (before tax) are also declining as a percentage of GDP. Yet the S&amp;P 500 and other major indices are rising, lifted by Fed liquidity injections in the repo market. The red line shows total assets on the Fed&#8217;s balance sheet. The Long Game &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Playing the long game&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/playing-the-long-game\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-01-11T04:35:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-profits-gdp.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/playing-the-long-game\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/playing-the-long-game\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Playing the long game\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-01-11T04:35:31+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/playing-the-long-game\/\"},\"wordCount\":182,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/playing-the-long-game\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-profits-gdp.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Corporate Profits Before Tax\",\"Fed Balance Sheet\",\"S&amp;P 500\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\",\"GDP and Activity\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/playing-the-long-game\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/playing-the-long-game\/\",\"name\":\"Playing the long game - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/playing-the-long-game\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/playing-the-long-game\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-profits-gdp.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-01-11T04:35:31+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/playing-the-long-game\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/playing-the-long-game\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/playing-the-long-game\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-profits-gdp.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-profits-gdp.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/playing-the-long-game\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Playing the long game\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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Optimism over improved global trade has spread, with the DJ Euro Stoxx 600 breaking resistance at 400. South Korea's KOSPI completed a double-bottom reversal to signal an up-trend. And India's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":32328,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/04\/29\/stocks-winter-is-coming\/","url_meta":{"origin":19613,"position":1},"title":"Stocks: Winter is coming","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 29, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"GDP grew by a solid 10.64% for the 12 months ended March '22 but that is in nominal terms. GDP for the quarter slowed to 1.58%, while real GDP fell to -0.36%. Not only is growth slowing but inflation is taking a bigger bite. The implicit price deflator climbed to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-29-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-29-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-29-gdp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-29-gdp.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19590,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/20\/how-is-the-current-sp-500-rise-likely-to-end\/","url_meta":{"origin":19613,"position":2},"title":"What is causing the current S&#038;P 500 rise and how is it likely to end?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 20, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"In November 2007, six months after the inverted yield curve (3M-10Y) recovered to a positive slope, bellwether transport stock Fedex broke primary support at 100 to warn of an economic slow-down. Today, two months after rate cuts restored an inverted yield curve to positive, Fedex again broke primary support, this\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":21333,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/29\/sp-500-and-stock-market-bubbles\/","url_meta":{"origin":19613,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Another stock market bubble?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 29, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"We see plenty of charts comparing major indices to GDP. Both the S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 made new highs relative to GDP, warning that stock pricing is at a new extreme. But comparing indices like these to an economy-wide measure like GDP is inaccurate for two key reasons: Index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26535,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/26\/sp-500-and-the-fed-taper\/","url_meta":{"origin":19613,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500 and the Fed taper","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 26, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"S&P 500 earnings forecasts show a sizable jump in the March quarter (97.3% reported) followed by a weaker June quarter as the economy struggles with supply chain interruptions and labor shortages. Record operating margins of 13.0% estimated for the first quarter (March '21) are unlikely to be repeated. The average\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":44390,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/01\/crude-lt-treasuries-dominate-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":19613,"position":5},"title":"Crude &#038; LT Treasuries dominate markets","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 1, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is headed for a large correction after breaking support at 4350. Trend Index below zero warns of rising selling pressure. The Equal-Weighted Index shows a far steeper correction, headed for a test of primary support at 5600. Breach of primary support would complete a double-top reversal, warning\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-29-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-29-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-29-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19613","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19613"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19613\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19614,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19613\/revisions\/19614"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19613"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19613"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19613"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}