{"id":19611,"date":"2020-01-11T03:59:47","date_gmt":"2020-01-11T03:59:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19611"},"modified":"2020-01-11T03:59:47","modified_gmt":"2020-01-11T03:59:47","slug":"sp-500-stocks-lift-but-jobs-and-profits-a-red-flag","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/sp-500-stocks-lift-but-jobs-and-profits-a-red-flag\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500: Stocks lift but jobs and profits a red flag"},"content":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 has advanced steadily since breaking resistance at 3000.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Lifted by Fed liquidity injections in the repo market.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Optimism over improved global trade has spread, with the DJ Euro Stoxx 600 breaking resistance at 400.<\/p>\n

\"DJ<\/p>\n

South Korea’s KOSPI completed a double-bottom reversal to signal an up-trend.<\/p>\n

\"KOSPI\"<\/p>\n

And India’s Nifty Index broke resistance at 12,000.<\/p>\n

\"Nifty\"<\/p>\n

Commodity prices remain low but rising Trend Index troughs on the DJ-UBS Commodity Index suggest that a bottom is forming.<\/p>\n

\"DJ-UBS<\/p>\n

Crude spiked up with rising US-Iran tensions but is expected to re-test support at 50 as supply threats fade.<\/p>\n

\"Nymex<\/p>\n

Fedex recovered above primary support at 150, but the outlook for economic activity remains bearish.<\/p>\n

\"Fedex\"<\/p>\n

Falling US wages growth warns of slowing job creation.<\/p>\n

\"Average<\/p>\n

Declining employment growth highlights similar weakness.<\/p>\n

\"Employment<\/p>\n

Initial jobless claims, while not alarming, are now starting to rise.<\/p>\n

\"Initial<\/p>\n

Growth in weekly hours worked has slowed, with real GDP expected to follow.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

While GDP growth is slowing, corporate profits (before tax) are also declining as a percentage of GDP.<\/p>\n

\"Corporate<\/p>\n

Market Capitalization of equities has spiked to a ratio of 20 times Corporate Profits (before tax), an extreme only previously seen in the Dotcom bubble.<\/p>\n

\"Market<\/p>\n

The market can remain irrational for longer than you or I can stay solvent, but this is a clear warning to investors to stay on the defensive.<\/p>\n

We maintain our view that stocks are over-valued and will remain under-weight equities (over-weight cash) until normal earnings multiples are restored.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 has advanced steadily since breaking resistance at 3000. Lifted by Fed liquidity injections in the repo market. Optimism over improved global trade has spread, with the DJ Euro Stoxx 600 breaking resistance at 400. South Korea’s KOSPI completed a double-bottom reversal to signal an up-trend. And India’s Nifty Index broke resistance at … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500: Stocks lift but jobs and profits a red flag”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,3761,57,34],"tags":[3940,1064,4178,1229,3990,1362,4141,2039,2475,2527,3010],"class_list":["post-19611","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-dj-euro-stoxx-600","tag-dj-ubs-commodity-index","tag-earnings-multiple","tag-employment-growth","tag-fed-assets","tag-fedex","tag-initial-jobless-claims","tag-kospi-index","tag-nifty-index","tag-nymex-light-crude","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500: Stocks lift but jobs and profits a red flag - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500: Stocks lift but jobs and profits a red flag - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The S&P 500 has advanced steadily since breaking resistance at 3000. Lifted by Fed liquidity injections in the repo market. Optimism over improved global trade has spread, with the DJ Euro Stoxx 600 breaking resistance at 400. South Korea’s KOSPI completed a double-bottom reversal to signal an up-trend. 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Real GDP growth is expected to follow a similar path. Average hourly earnings growth increased to 3.4% p.a. for production and non-supervisory employees (3.2% for all employees). The Fed has limited wiggle\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16765,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/28\/bears-in-the-east-bulls-in-the-west\/","url_meta":{"origin":19611,"position":1},"title":"Bears in the East, Bulls in the West","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 28, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Market fears of a trade war appear to be easing but investors in China and South Korea remain cautious. The Shanghai Composite Index is retracing to test resistance at the former primary support level at 3000. Dow Jones - UBS Commodity Index shows a similar retracement in commodity prices. While\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":23448,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/12\/31\/markets-that-are-likely-to-outperform-in-2021\/","url_meta":{"origin":19611,"position":2},"title":"Markets that are likely to outperform in 2021","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 31, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"There is no reliable benchmark for assessing performance of different markets (stocks, bonds, precious metals, commodities, etc.) since central banks have flooded financial markets with more than $8 trillion in freshly printed currency since the start of 2020. The chart below from Ed Yardeni shows total assets of the five\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":59196,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/14\/an-excellent-time-to-take-profits\/","url_meta":{"origin":19611,"position":3},"title":"An excellent time to take profits","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 14, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dollar Index broke resistance at 106, driving precious metals slower. The S&P 500 grows hesitant as the 10-year Treasury yield climbs and international stocks weaken. The bellwether KOSPI 100 signals a bear market. Stocks The S&P 500 remains stalled at resistance at 6000. The Russell 2000 small caps ETF\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-13-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31457,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/12\/oil-gold-soar-as-equities-plunge\/","url_meta":{"origin":19611,"position":4},"title":"Oil & Gold soar as equities plunge","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 12, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Brent crude is retracing to test support at $100 per barrel. Respect is likely and would signal another advance, with a target of $155 -- calculated by extending the range of the last rally (125 - 95) above resistance at $125. DJ-UBS Commodity Index also retraced, testing support at 125.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-11-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":18607,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/03\/sp-500-treasuries-reflect-flight-to-safety\/","url_meta":{"origin":19611,"position":5},"title":"S&P 500: Treasuries reflect flight to safety","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 3, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields plunged below 2.0% on Donald Trump's announcement of further tariffs (10% on $300bn) on China. The fall reflects rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven in these turbulent times. The spread between 10-Year and 3-Month Treasuries recovered above zero. This is a bearish sign: recession normally\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19611","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19611"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19611\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19612,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19611\/revisions\/19612"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19611"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19611"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19611"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}