{"id":19609,"date":"2020-01-11T02:05:51","date_gmt":"2020-01-11T02:05:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19609"},"modified":"2020-01-11T02:05:51","modified_gmt":"2020-01-11T02:05:51","slug":"australia-bearish-apart-from-mining","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/australia-bearish-apart-from-mining\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia: Bearish apart from mining"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Household disposable income lifted in response to the recent tax cuts but households remain risk-averse, with consumption still falling and extra income going straight to debt repayment \u2014 reflected by a jump in the Saving ratio below.<br \/>\n<img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-aus-hhsaving.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia Household Saving\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Housing prices are recovering despite high levels of mortgage stress in the outer suburbs but building approvals for new housing continue to fall. Construction expenditure is likely to follow.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-aus-bldgapprovals.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia Building Approvals\" \/><\/p>\n<p>GDP growth is falling, while corporate profits (% of GDP) remain in the doldrums apart from the mining sector.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-aus-profits.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia Corporate Profits\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Low household disposable income and corporate profit growth in turn lead to low business investment (% of GDP).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-aus-businvestment.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia Business Investment\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Low investment leads to low job creation. Job vacancies and job ads both warn of declining employment growth.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-aus-jobads.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia Job Ads\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Cyclical employment growth is expected to slow in line with the fall in the <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.employment.gov.au\/system\/files\/doc\/other\/lioe_1219_0.pdf\">Leading Indicator<\/a> over the past year.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-aus-leading.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia Leading Employment Indicator\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We maintain a bearish outlook for the Australian economy, though Mining continues to surprise to the upside.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Household disposable income lifted in response to the recent tax cuts but households remain risk-averse, with consumption still falling and extra income going straight to debt repayment \u2014 reflected by a jump in the Saving ratio below. Housing prices are recovering despite high levels of mortgage stress in the outer suburbs but building approvals for &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/australia-bearish-apart-from-mining\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Australia: Bearish apart from mining&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,46,3761,10],"tags":[290,515,536,800,831,1041,1958,4176,4177,2322,3042],"class_list":["post-19609","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-housing-economy","tag-australia","tag-building-approvals","tag-business-investment","tag-consumption","tag-corporate-profits","tag-disposable-income","tag-job-ads","tag-job-vacancies","tag-leading-employment-indicator","tag-mining","tag-savings"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Australia: Bearish apart from mining - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australia: Bearish apart from mining - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Household disposable income lifted in response to the recent tax cuts but households remain risk-averse, with consumption still falling and extra income going straight to debt repayment \u2014 reflected by a jump in the Saving ratio below. Housing prices are recovering despite high levels of mortgage stress in the outer suburbs but building approvals for &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Australia: Bearish apart from mining&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/australia-bearish-apart-from-mining\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-01-11T02:05:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-aus-hhsaving.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/australia-bearish-apart-from-mining\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/australia-bearish-apart-from-mining\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Australia: Bearish apart from mining\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-01-11T02:05:51+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/australia-bearish-apart-from-mining\/\"},\"wordCount\":160,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/australia-bearish-apart-from-mining\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-aus-hhsaving.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Australia\",\"building approvals\",\"Business Investment\",\"consumption\",\"corporate profits\",\"Disposable Income\",\"Job Ads\",\"Job Vacancies\",\"Leading Employment Indicator\",\"mining\",\"Savings\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia &amp; NZ\",\"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment\",\"GDP and Activity\",\"Housing\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/australia-bearish-apart-from-mining\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/australia-bearish-apart-from-mining\/\",\"name\":\"Australia: Bearish apart from mining - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/australia-bearish-apart-from-mining\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/australia-bearish-apart-from-mining\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-aus-hhsaving.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-01-11T02:05:51+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/australia-bearish-apart-from-mining\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/australia-bearish-apart-from-mining\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/australia-bearish-apart-from-mining\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-aus-hhsaving.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2020-01-10-aus-hhsaving.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/australia-bearish-apart-from-mining\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Australia: Bearish apart from mining\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-56h","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":15672,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/08\/04\/australia-housing-incomes-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":19609,"position":0},"title":"Australia: Housing, Incomes &#038; Growth","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 4, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"A quick snapshot of the Australian economy from the latest RBA chart pack. Disposable income growth has declined to almost zero and consumption is likely to follow. Else Savings will be depleted. Residential building approvals are slowing, most noticeably in apartments, reflecting an oversupply. Housing loan approvals for owner-occupiers are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16340,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/09\/12-charts-on-the-australian-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":19609,"position":1},"title":"12 Charts on the Australian economy","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 9, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian GDP grew at a robust 3.1% for the year ended 31 March 2018 but a look at the broader economy shows little to cheer about. Wages growth is slowing, with the Wage Price Index falling sharply. Falling growth in disposable income is holding back consumption (e.g. retail spending) and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19282,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/19\/asx-and-3-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":19609,"position":2},"title":"ASX and 3 headwinds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 19, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Despite recent strong performance, investor enthusiasm may be cooling, with the Australian economy facing three headwinds. Declining Household Spending Household income growth is faltering and weighing down consumption. Household spending would have fallen even further, dragging the economy into recession, if households were not digging into savings to maintain their\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19880,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/07\/australia-the-bear-case\/","url_meta":{"origin":19609,"position":3},"title":"Australia: The bear case","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 7, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA cut the cash rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday this week, to a record low of 0.50%. This was necessary in order to limit the interest rate differential with the US and protect the currency. But it will not do much to help the economy. Household debt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15587,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/07\/australia-faces-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":19609,"position":4},"title":"Australia faces headwinds","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 7, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian wage rate growth, on the other hand, is declining. is in a worse position, with a dramatic fall in investment following the mining boom. Source: RBA & ABS As is inflation. Source: RBA & ABS Growth in Household Disposable Income and Consumption. Source: RBA & ABS And Banks return\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18830,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/06\/australia-the-elephant-in-the-room\/","url_meta":{"origin":19609,"position":5},"title":"Australia: The elephant in the room","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 6, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"June quarter real GDP growth slowed to an annual 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). Major contributors to growth are household consumption, public demand and exports; while the biggest handbrake is investment. A quick look at the RBA chart shows that consumption is slowing but at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19609","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19609"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19609\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19610,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19609\/revisions\/19610"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19609"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19609"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19609"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}