Average hourly earnings growth is increasing, especially for production & non-supervisory employees (3.65% for 12 months to November), but in the present environment the Fed seems unconcerned about inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n
Patience is required. We have had a weak S&P 500 retracement confirm the breakout but there is minimal up-turn in November employment indicators to support the bull signal. Market risk is elevated and investors should exercise caution.<\/p>\n
“The world has a way of undermining complex plans. This is particularly true in fast moving environments. A fast moving environment can evolve more quickly than a complex plan can be adapted to it….\u201d
\n~ Carl Von Clausewitz, Vom Kriege (On War) (1780-1831)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Short retracement on the S&P 500 that respected support at 3000 strengthens the bull signal. Further gains are expected in the short- to medium-term. Corporate profits before tax continue to decline after adjusting for inflation, exposing the vulnerability of high earnings multiples. Hours worked (non-farm payroll x average weekly hours) for November also point to … <\/p>\n
Continue reading “S&P 500 recovers but employment gains sluggish”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,3761,57,34],"tags":[831,1229,2870,3010],"class_list":["post-19554","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-corporate-profits","tag-employment-growth","tag-real-gdp","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500 recovers but employment gains sluggish - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500 recovers but employment gains sluggish - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Short retracement on the S&P 500 that respected support at 3000 strengthens the bull signal. Further gains are expected in the short- to medium-term. Corporate profits before tax continue to decline after adjusting for inflation, exposing the vulnerability of high earnings multiples. 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A Trend Index trough above zero indicates short-term buying pressure. Falling bond yields, however, warn of a flight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19611,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/sp-500-stocks-lift-but-jobs-and-profits-a-red-flag\/","url_meta":{"origin":19554,"position":1},"title":"S&P 500: Stocks lift but jobs and profits a red flag","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 11, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 has advanced steadily since breaking resistance at 3000. Lifted by Fed liquidity injections in the repo market. Optimism over improved global trade has spread, with the DJ Euro Stoxx 600 breaking resistance at 400. South Korea's KOSPI completed a double-bottom reversal to signal an up-trend. And India's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":36202,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/06\/strong-us-labor-report-warns-of-further-rate-hikes\/","url_meta":{"origin":19554,"position":2},"title":"Strong US labor report bearish for stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 6, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The US economy added 528,00 new jobs in July, with total non-farm payroll reaching a new record of 152.536 million. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, close to its 60-year low of 3.4% (1969). The labor market remains tight, with job openings exceeding unemployment by 5 million. Estimated hours worked\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-05-nonfarm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-05-nonfarm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-05-nonfarm.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18544,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/07\/13\/rate-cuts-and-buybacks-the-emperors-new-clothes\/","url_meta":{"origin":19554,"position":3},"title":"Rate cuts and buybacks – the emperor’s new clothes","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 13, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The interest rate outlook is softening, with Fed chairman Jerome Powell hinting at rate cuts in his Wednesday testimony to Congress: \"Our baseline outlook is for economic growth to remain solid, labor markets to remain strong and inflation to move back over time.\" but.... \"Uncertainties about the outlook have increased\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15585,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/07\/us-adds-222-thousand-jobs\/","url_meta":{"origin":19554,"position":4},"title":"US adds 222 thousand jobs","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 7, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"From the Wall Street Journal: U.S. employers picked up their pace of hiring in June. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 222,000 from the prior month, the Labor Department said. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3% the prior month as more people joined the workforce..... Source:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":38392,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/29\/sp-500-rally-unlikely-to-endure-past-mid-terms\/","url_meta":{"origin":19554,"position":5},"title":"S&P 500 rally unlikely to endure past mid-terms","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 29, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 rallied in the past two weeks but remains strongly in bear territory: well below the descending trendline, with 100-Day Momentum similarly below zero. The backbone of the index -- big five technology stocks Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) -- have\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-28-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-28-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-28-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19554","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19554"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19554\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19556,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19554\/revisions\/19556"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19554"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19554"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19554"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"S&P](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-12-06-spx.png?w=525&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n![\"S&P](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-12-06-realprofits.png?w=525&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n![\"Real](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-12-06-realgdp.png?w=525&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n![\"Employment](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-12-06-emp-ffr.png?w=525&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n![\"Average](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-12-06-wages.png?w=525&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n