{"id":19545,"date":"2019-12-06T23:14:54","date_gmt":"2019-12-06T23:14:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19545"},"modified":"2019-12-07T02:04:01","modified_gmt":"2019-12-07T02:04:01","slug":"banks-drag-on-asx-200","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/","title":{"rendered":"Banks drag on ASX 200"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Banks are plagued by fears of large AUSTRAC penalties for breaches of anti money-laundering and counter-terrorism regulations. Commonwealth have paid a $700 million fine, Westpac have already been charged, NAB alerted investors of potential liabilities in their annual report, while ANZ says there are no signs of transgressions.<\/p>\n<p>In other problem areas, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2019\/12\/mortgage-stress-skyrockets-to-all-time-high\/\">mortgage stress<\/a> continues to rise, with Martin North (Digital Finance Analytics) estimating that 32.5% of households are now in mortgage stress &#8220;based on an assessment of their cash flow.&#8221; Worst hit are fringe suburbs, where the rate is as high as 60%.<\/p>\n<p>Elsewhere, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbnz.govt.nz\/-\/media\/ReserveBank\/Files\/Publications\/Policy-development\/Banks\/Review-capital-adequacy-framework-for-registered-banks\/decisions\/Capital-Review-guide.pdf\">RBNZ eased their calls<\/a> for major banks to increase Common Equity Tier 1 Capital (CET1) to 13.5%, with a further 2.5% comprising other forms of capital such as hybrids and convertible preference shares, and relaxed the phase-in from 5 to 7 years. But the changes will still $13.8 billion in additional capital, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/business\/banking-and-finance\/big-four-face-nz14-4b-capital-slug-across-tasman-20191205-p53h2p.html\">according to the big four banks<\/a>. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.apra.gov.au\/news-and-publications\/apra-announces-%E2%80%98unquestionably-strong%E2%80%99-capital-benchmarks\">APRA, by comparison,<\/a> requires a CET1 ratio of 10.5%.<\/p>\n<p>The ASX 300 Banks index continues to trend lower, with declining peaks on the Trend Index warning of selling pressure. Expect retracement to test resistance at 7600; respect would confirm the\u00a0 target of 6800.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-12-06-xbak.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 300 Banks\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The ASX 200 REITs index is again testing support at 1600 after a false break above 1650. Breach of support remains unlikely, with financial markets searching for yield, but would offer a target of 1500.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-12-06-xpj.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 REITs\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Iron ore has made a bear market rally to test resistance at 90. Respect of resistance is likely and would warn of another decline.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-12-06-tr.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Iron Ore\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A Trend Index peak near zero on the ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining index warns of another test of support at 4100 (neckline of a large <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/technical\/head_and_shoulders.php\">head-and-shoulders reversal pattern<\/a>). Breach would offer a target of 3400, while respect of support would indicate that a base is forming.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-12-06-xmm.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Declining banks are dragging the ASX 200 lower and another test of support at 6400 is likely. A resources sector reversal would increase the chance of top forming on the broad index<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-12-06-xjo.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We maintain low exposure to Australian equities, with a focus on defensive and contra-cyclical stocks, because of our bearish outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Banks are plagued by fears of large AUSTRAC penalties for breaches of anti money-laundering and counter-terrorism regulations. Commonwealth have paid a $700 million fine, Westpac have already been charged, NAB alerted investors of potential liabilities in their annual report, while ANZ says there are no signs of transgressions. In other problem areas, mortgage stress continues &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Banks drag on ASX 200&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,43,57],"tags":[251,260,262,1902],"class_list":["post-19545","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-300-banks","tag-asx-300-metals-mining","tag-iron-ore"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Banks drag on ASX 200 - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Banks drag on ASX 200 - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Banks are plagued by fears of large AUSTRAC penalties for breaches of anti money-laundering and counter-terrorism regulations. Commonwealth have paid a $700 million fine, Westpac have already been charged, NAB alerted investors of potential liabilities in their annual report, while ANZ says there are no signs of transgressions. In other problem areas, mortgage stress continues &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Banks drag on ASX 200&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-12-06T23:14:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-12-07T02:04:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-12-06-xbak.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Banks drag on ASX 200\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-12-06T23:14:54+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-12-07T02:04:01+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/\"},\"wordCount\":335,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-12-06-xbak.png\",\"keywords\":[\"ASX 200\",\"ASX 300 Banks\",\"ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining\",\"Iron Ore\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia &amp; NZ\",\"Commodities\",\"Stock Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/\",\"name\":\"Banks drag on ASX 200 - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-12-06-xbak.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-12-06T23:14:54+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-12-07T02:04:01+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-12-06-xbak.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-12-06-xbak.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Banks drag on ASX 200\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-55f","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":19331,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/asx-mixed-signals\/","url_meta":{"origin":19545,"position":0},"title":"ASX mixed signals","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 26, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Residential mortgage activity is recovering in response to recent rate cuts. Buyers are unable to resist the ultra-low finance costs, while APRA is sitting on its hands regarding macro-prudential measures (e.g. reducing maximum LVRs) to prevent another credit\/housing bubble. Again, we see a two-speed economy, with mortgage stress in newer\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13541,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/07\/07\/asx-200-banks-weigh-on-the-index\/","url_meta":{"origin":19545,"position":1},"title":"ASX 200: Banks weigh on the index","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 7, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 encountered resistance at 5300 and is likely to test support at 4900\/5000, with breach of the lower trend channel and declining 13-week Money Flow warning of selling pressure. Breach of support at the recent low of 5050 would confirm. The Banks are weighing on the index, with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-07-07-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-07-07-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-07-07-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":15629,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/21\/asx-200-its-down-to-iron-ore\/","url_meta":{"origin":19545,"position":2},"title":"ASX 200: It&#8217;s down to iron ore","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 21, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore encountered resistance at $70 per ton. Another test of primary support at $53 is likely. But a failed down-swing would be a bullish sign. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining displays a similar pattern, retreating below 3000 after testing 3050. A failed down-swing that ends above 2750 would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20062,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/21\/steepest-volatility-spike-in-asx-history\/","url_meta":{"origin":19545,"position":3},"title":"Steepest volatility spike in ASX history","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 21, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The volatility spike on the ASX 200 is unprecedented. Not even 2008 comes close: a sudden spike from below 1% to an almost record high. There were warning signs but the market had been lulled into complacency by ultra-low interest rates. Four weeks later and belief in an omnipotent central\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17128,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/05\/asx-200-miners-rally-but-banks-a-worry\/","url_meta":{"origin":19545,"position":4},"title":"ASX 200: Miners rally but banks a worry","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 5, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 found support at 6120\/6150, with a long tail indicating buying interest. Follow-through above 6250 would suggest another advance. Breach is now unlikely but would warn of a test of the rising long-term trendline at 6000. A rally on resources stocks helped support the overall index. Expect the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15179,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/04\/21\/asx-200-advance-slows-as-iron-ore-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":19545,"position":5},"title":"ASX 200 advance slows as iron ore falls","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 21, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore found support at $60. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index has taken some encouragement from the rally, with support at 2850. But bear rallies are normally short in duration and reverse sharply. The ASX 200 advance has slowed after the recent sell-off in the resources sector. But\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19545","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19545"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19545\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19550,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19545\/revisions\/19550"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19545"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19545"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19545"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}