{"id":19510,"date":"2019-11-30T05:40:55","date_gmt":"2019-11-30T05:40:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19510"},"modified":"2019-11-30T05:43:25","modified_gmt":"2019-11-30T05:43:25","slug":"sp-500-betting-on-qe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500: Betting on QE"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The S&amp;P 500 continued its cautious advance in a shortened week due to Thanksgiving. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 3000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I believe that the latest surge has little do with an improved earnings outlook and is simply a straight bet that Fed balance sheet expansion (QE) will goose stock prices in the short- to medium-term. The chart below highlights the timing of the increase in Fed assets and its effect on the S&amp;P 500 index.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-spx-fedassets.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 and Fed Total Assets\" \/><\/p>\n<p>There is plenty of research on the web pointing to a strong correlation between QE and equity prices. Here are two of the better ones:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/businessforecastblog.com\/quantitative-easing-qe-and-the-sp-500\/\">QE and the S&amp;P 500 &#8211; Clive Jones<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuresmag.com\/2018\/09\/07\/ctas-vs-central-banks-qe-effect\">CTAs v Central Banks: The QE Effect &#8211; Dmitri Alexeev<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Economic Activity<\/h3>\n<p>If we look at fundamentals, many of them are headed in the opposite direction.<\/p>\n<p>Bellwether transport stock Fedex (FDX) is testing primary support at 150. Breach would warn of a slow-down in economic activity.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-fdx2.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fedex\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Monthly container traffic at the Port of Los Angeles shows a marked year-on-year fall in imports and, to a lesser extent, exports.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-28-containers.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Port of Los Angeles: Container Imports &amp; Exports\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Rather than boosting local manufacturers, industrial production is falling.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-28-prodn.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Industrial Production\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Production of durable consumer goods is falling even faster, though the October figure may be distorted by the GM strike.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-28-ind-prodn.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Industrial Production: Durable Consumer Goods\" \/><\/p>\n<p>What is clear is that slowing growth in the global economy is unlikely to reverse any time soon.<\/p>\n<h3>Market Cap v. Corporate Profits<\/h3>\n<p>Yet market capitalization for non-financial stocks is at a precarious 24.7 times profits before tax, second only to the Dotcom bubble. The surge since 2010 coincides with Fed injection of a net $2.0 trillion into financial markets ($4.5T &#8211; $2.5T in excess reserves).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-28-nonfinancial.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nonfinancial corporations: Market Capitalisation\/Profits before tax\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The problem, as the Fed unwind showed, is that once central banks embark on this path, it is difficult for them to stop. The Bank of Japan started in the late 1980s \u2014 and is still at it.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-bojassets.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bank of Japan: Total Assets\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Margin Debt<\/h3>\n<p>This chart from Advisor Perspectives compares the S&amp;P 500 to margin debt. The decline since late 2018 appears ominous but November margin debt levels may reflect an up-turn. We will have to keep a weather eye on this.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-margindebt.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"FINRA Margin Debt &amp; S&amp;P 500 Index\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Patience<\/h2>\n<p>Patience is required. First, wait for S&amp;P 500 retracement to confirm the breakout. Second, look for an up-turn in November economic indicators, especially employment, to support the bull signal. Failure of economic indicators to confirm the breakout will flag that market risk is elevated and investors should exercise caution.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;If the mind is to emerge unscathed from this relentless struggle with the unforeseen, two qualities are indispensable: first, an intellect that, even in the darkest hour, retains some glimmerings of the inner light which leads to truth; and second, the courage to follow this faint light wherever it may lead.\u201d<br \/>\n~ Carl Von Clausewitz, Vom Kriege (On War) (1780-1831)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The S&amp;P 500 continued its cautious advance in a shortened week due to Thanksgiving. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 3000. I believe that the latest surge has little do with an improved earnings outlook and is simply a straight bet that Fed balance sheet expansion (QE) will goose stock prices in &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500: Betting on QE&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,3761,57,34],"tags":[807,831,4165,1362,1821,2218,4166,3010],"class_list":["post-19510","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-containers","tag-corporate-profits","tag-fdx","tag-fedex","tag-industrial-production","tag-margin-debt","tag-market-cap","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500: Betting on QE - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500: Betting on QE - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The S&amp;P 500 continued its cautious advance in a shortened week due to Thanksgiving. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 3000. I believe that the latest surge has little do with an improved earnings outlook and is simply a straight bet that Fed balance sheet expansion (QE) will goose stock prices in &hellip; Continue reading &quot;S&#038;P 500: Betting on QE&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-11-30T05:40:55+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-11-30T05:43:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-spx.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"S&#038;P 500: Betting on QE\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-11-30T05:40:55+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-11-30T05:43:25+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/\"},\"wordCount\":465,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-spx.png\",\"keywords\":[\"containers\",\"corporate profits\",\"FDX\",\"Fedex\",\"industrial production\",\"margin debt\",\"Market cap\",\"S&amp;P 500\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\",\"GDP and Activity\",\"Stock Markets\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/\",\"name\":\"S&P 500: Betting on QE - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-spx.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-11-30T05:40:55+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-11-30T05:43:25+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-spx.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-spx.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"S&#038;P 500: Betting on QE\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. \",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\",\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Colin Twiggs\"},\"description\":\"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"S&P 500: Betting on QE - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"S&P 500: Betting on QE - the patient investor","og_description":"The S&amp;P 500 continued its cautious advance in a shortened week due to Thanksgiving. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 3000. I believe that the latest surge has little do with an improved earnings outlook and is simply a straight bet that Fed balance sheet expansion (QE) will goose stock prices in &hellip; Continue reading \"S&#038;P 500: Betting on QE\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2019-11-30T05:40:55+00:00","article_modified_time":"2019-11-30T05:43:25+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-spx.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"S&#038;P 500: Betting on QE","datePublished":"2019-11-30T05:40:55+00:00","dateModified":"2019-11-30T05:43:25+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/"},"wordCount":465,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-spx.png","keywords":["containers","corporate profits","FDX","Fedex","industrial production","margin debt","Market cap","S&amp;P 500"],"articleSection":["Banks &amp; Interest Rates","GDP and Activity","Stock Markets","US &amp; Canada"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/","name":"S&P 500: Betting on QE - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-spx.png","datePublished":"2019-11-30T05:40:55+00:00","dateModified":"2019-11-30T05:43:25+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-spx.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-spx.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/30\/sp-500-betting-on-qe\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"S&#038;P 500: Betting on QE"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. ","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-54G","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":42044,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/05\/13\/global-liquidity-bearish-for-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":19510,"position":0},"title":"Global liquidity bearish for stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 13, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Fed QE affects stock prices in two ways. First, QE increases the supply of money in financial markets when the proceeds of Fed purchases are credited to sellers' accounts in the commercial banking system. Second, it reduces the supply of Treasuries in financial markets, driving up prices and reducing long-term\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed QE & S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-12-fedassets-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-12-fedassets-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-12-fedassets-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31915,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/04\/07\/qt-to-weaken-stock-prices\/","url_meta":{"origin":19510,"position":1},"title":"QT to weaken stock prices","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 7, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"CNBC's Steve Liesman summarizes the latest Federal Reserve minutes. https:\/\/youtu.be\/KOe3B7P0R7k FOMC minutes show most members are comfortable with $95 billion per month balance sheet reduction -- $60 billion in Treasuries and $35 billion in MBS -- with a phase-in over the first three months. That total is double the rate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Total Assets & S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-07-fedassets-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-07-fedassets-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-07-fedassets-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-07-fedassets-spx.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20547,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/16\/sp-500-treasury-and-the-fed\/","url_meta":{"origin":19510,"position":2},"title":"S&#038;P 500, Treasury and the Fed","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 16, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 index continues to test resistance at 2950\/3000. Declining Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 2750 is likely and would warn of another test of primary support at 2250. Breach of 2750 would signal the end of the Denial stage of the bear market. Panic would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":44390,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/01\/crude-lt-treasuries-dominate-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":19510,"position":3},"title":"Crude &#038; LT Treasuries dominate markets","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 1, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is headed for a large correction after breaking support at 4350. Trend Index below zero warns of rising selling pressure. The Equal-Weighted Index shows a far steeper correction, headed for a test of primary support at 5600. Breach of primary support would complete a double-top reversal, warning\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-29-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-29-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-29-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":30340,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/01\/10\/no-soft-landing\/","url_meta":{"origin":19510,"position":4},"title":"No soft landing","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 10, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields have climbed in response to the December FOMC minutes which suggest a faster taper of QE purchases and faster rate hikes. Breakout above 1.75% would offer a medium-term target of 2.3% (projecting the trough of 1.2% above resistance at 1.75%). The Dollar Index retreated below short-term support\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-01-10-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-01-10-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-01-10-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20562,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/21\/what-happened-to-gold-in-2013\/","url_meta":{"origin":19510,"position":5},"title":"What happened to Gold in 2013?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 21, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold peaked at the end of 2011, ending an eight-year bull run. Real interest rates bottomed a year later, in mid-2012, with the 10-year TIPS yield ending a dramatic fall from its highs in 2008. Gold completed a triple-top reversal, breaking primary support in April 2013, and the 10-year TIPS\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19510","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19510"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19510\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19513,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19510\/revisions\/19513"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19510"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19510"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19510"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}