{"id":19503,"date":"2019-11-29T23:36:30","date_gmt":"2019-11-29T23:36:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19503"},"modified":"2019-11-29T23:38:40","modified_gmt":"2019-11-29T23:38:40","slug":"asx-200-dont-argue-with-the-tape","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/29\/asx-200-dont-argue-with-the-tape\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX 200: Don&#8217;t argue with the tape"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>&#8220;A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong; opinions often are.&#8221; ~ Jesse Livermore<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The ASX 200 broke resistance at 6800, signaling a fresh advance with a short-term target of 7200. Declining Trend Index peaks still warn of secondary selling pressure at present. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 6800. Respect of support would confirm the advance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-xjo2.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But divergence from fundamentals is growing.<\/p>\n<p>NAB cut their GDP forecast to 1.5% in their <a href=\"https:\/\/business.nab.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/The-Forward-View-Australia-November19.pdf\">November Forward View<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne have recovered somewhat, but building approvals for houses remain 21% below their 2017 high and 57% for apartments. Construction activity is likely to remain low.<\/p>\n<p>Exports are strong, boosted by increased LNG exports, but iron ore prices are falling. Currently testing short-term support at 80, our long-term target for iron ore is $65\/metric ton.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-tr.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Iron Ore\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Business investment has slowed, causing wages to stagnate.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-aus-inv.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Business Investment\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Retail sales weakened as a consequence, contracting for the first time since the early 1990s.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-aus-retail.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Retail Sales\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Annual credit growth slowed to 2.5%, the lowest since 2010.<\/p>\n<p>Banks were spooked last week by AUSTRAC pursuing Westpac for 19.5 million breaches of anti money-laundering and counter-terrorism regulations. The ASX 300 Banks index broke support at 7600, completing a double-top reversal, but this week they consolidated in a narrow range. Expect retracement to test resistance at 7600. Declining peaks on the Trend Index, however, continue to warn of selling pressure. Respect of resistance would confirm the decline, with a target of 6800.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-xbak.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 300 Banks\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The ASX 200 REITs index broke out of its descending triangle, signaling another advance. Financial markets are searching for yield.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-xpj.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 REITs\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining index penetrated its descending trendline, suggesting that a base is forming. Expect another test of support at 4100 (neckline of a large <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/technical\/head_and_shoulders.php\">head-and-shoulders reversal pattern<\/a>). Breach would offer a target of 3400. The Trend Index penetrated its descending trendline but a peak near zero would warn of continued selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-29-xmm.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We shouldn&#8217;t argue with the market but we should wait for confirmation; bull and bear traps are common. Investors, bear in mind that market risk remains elevated. I leave you with this quote from Westpac in their recent credit update:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>For businesses, the economic backdrop has become more challenging. The global economy is slowing and household spending is soft. In this environment business investment in the real economy has lost momentum across the non-mining sectors &#8211; which will weigh on credit demand.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&#8230;.and on jobs, wages growth and household spending.<\/p>\n<p>We maintain low exposure to Australian equities, with a focus on defensive and contra-cyclical stocks, because of our bearish outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong; opinions often are.&#8221; ~ Jesse Livermore The ASX 200 broke resistance at 6800, signaling a fresh advance with a short-term target of 7200. Declining Trend Index peaks still warn of secondary selling pressure at present. Expect retracement to test the new support level &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/29\/asx-200-dont-argue-with-the-tape\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;ASX 200: Don&#8217;t argue with the tape&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,43,57],"tags":[251,260,262,536,4031,2943],"class_list":["post-19503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-300-banks","tag-asx-300-metals-mining","tag-business-investment","tag-reits","tag-retail-sales"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ASX 200: Don&#039;t argue with the tape - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX 200: Don&#039;t argue with the tape - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&#8220;A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong; opinions often are.&#8221; ~ Jesse Livermore The ASX 200 broke resistance at 6800, signaling a fresh advance with a short-term target of 7200. Declining Trend Index peaks still warn of secondary selling pressure at present. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-54z","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":19606,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/asx-200-breakout-4\/","url_meta":{"origin":19503,"position":0},"title":"ASX 200 breakout","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 11, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 broke resistance at 6800, signaling a fresh advance. Expect retracement to test the new support level; respect would strengthen the bull signal. Primary driver of the advance is resources. Talk of an imminent phase 1 US-China trade deal lifted iron ore, which is now testing resistance at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":30972,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/13\/asx-hesitates-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":19503,"position":1},"title":"ASX hesitates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 13, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 broke through resistance at 7200 but is now retracing to test the new support level. The declining Trend Index indicates selling pressure. A strong bearish shift Friday on US markets should see the ASX 200 retreat below 7200, warning of another test of primary support at 6800.\u00a0\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-14-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-14-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-14-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-14-xjo.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":23815,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/01\/23\/asx-edges-higher\/","url_meta":{"origin":19503,"position":2},"title":"ASX faces iron ore risk","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 23, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore reached $170\/metric ton as record steel production in China lifted prices. But breach of the steep trendline would warn of a sharp correction (the steeper the trend, the harder they fall). Australian bulk exports remain strong, with December bulk exports down 3% from a record high in December\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":23294,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/12\/19\/asx-200-and-the-fiscal-cliff\/","url_meta":{"origin":19503,"position":3},"title":"ASX 200 and the fiscal cliff","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 19, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore continues to trade above $150\/tonne, driven by surging infrastructure investment in China and constrained iron ore supply from Brazil. There is a widely held view that prices will fall next year if infrastructure spending dwindles and Brazilian supply recovers. The Australian economy is overly-reliant on iron ore exports\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19568,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/13\/asx-200-hesitant-4\/","url_meta":{"origin":19503,"position":4},"title":"ASX 200 hesitant","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 13, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The resources sector is strengthening. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index broke resistance at 4450, suggesting another advance. Buoyed by rising iron ore prices, the breakout offers a target of 4800. Talk of an imminent trade deal lifted iron ore above previous support at 90. Expect another test of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":23729,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/01\/16\/asx-200-bullish-except-for-reits-health-care\/","url_meta":{"origin":19503,"position":5},"title":"ASX 200 bullish except for REITs &#038; Health Care","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 16, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore approaching $170\/metric ton is supporting the ASX. The ASX 200 is consolidating in a bullish narrow rectangle between 6600 and 6800. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow indicate secondary buying pressure. Breakout above 6800 would signal another advance. Metals & Mining The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19503","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19503"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19503\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19506,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19503\/revisions\/19506"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19503"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19503"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19503"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}