{"id":19482,"date":"2019-11-22T22:06:13","date_gmt":"2019-11-22T22:06:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19482"},"modified":"2019-11-22T22:06:13","modified_gmt":"2019-11-22T22:06:13","slug":"sp-500-a-cautious-advance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/22\/sp-500-a-cautious-advance\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500: A cautious advance"},"content":{"rendered":"

A monthly chart shows the S&P 500 cautiously advancing after breaking resistance at 3000. Short candle bodies reflect hesitancy but Trend Index troughs above zero remain bullish.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

ETF flows reveal risk-averse investors, with outflows from US Equities in the last week and a relatively much larger outflow from Leveraged ETFs. Inflows are mainly into Fixed Income and Inverse.<\/p>\n

\"ETF<\/p>\n

Year-to-date flows tell a similar story, with outflows from Equities and into Fixed Income. So where is the money flow into equities coming from?<\/p>\n

\"Twitter:<\/a><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Fed has eased up on their balance sheet expansion now that the PBOC is back in the market<\/a>. But broad money (MZM plus time deposits) continues to spike upwards, warning that the Fed is trying to head off a potential liquidity squeeze. They are not always successful. A similar spike occurred before the last two recessions.<\/p>\n

\"Fed<\/p>\n

The personal savings rate is climbing. Far from a positive sign, this warns that personal consumption, the largest contributor to GDP, is likely to fall.<\/p>\n

\"Saving<\/p>\n

This is a dangerous market and we urge investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A monthly chart shows the S&P 500 cautiously advancing after breaking resistance at 3000. Short candle bodies reflect hesitancy but Trend Index troughs above zero remain bullish. ETF flows reveal risk-averse investors, with outflows from US Equities in the last week and a relatively much larger outflow from Leveraged ETFs. Inflows are mainly into Fixed … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500: A cautious advance”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,3761,57,34],"tags":[3935,3990,3764,3010,3042,3421],"class_list":["post-19482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-broad-money","tag-fed-assets","tag-mzm","tag-sp-500","tag-savings","tag-time-deposits"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500: A cautious advance - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500: A cautious advance - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A monthly chart shows the S&P 500 cautiously advancing after breaking resistance at 3000. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-54e","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":17939,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/02\/gdp-up-but-etf-flows-bearish\/","url_meta":{"origin":19482,"position":0},"title":"GDP up but ETF flows bearish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 2, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Real US GDP grew a healthy 3.1% in Q4 2018. Rising hours worked point to further gains in the new year. 10-Year Treasury yields rallied slightly but only breakout above 2.80% would hint at a reversal in the down-trend, while breach of 2.60% would warn of further weakness. Inflows into\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19351,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/30\/if-you-thought-the-sell-off-was-over\/","url_meta":{"origin":19482,"position":1},"title":"If you thought the sell-off was over","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 30, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Flush with new money, the S&P 500 broke resistance at 3030 this week to set a new high. Declining Money Flow,\u00a0 however, warns of selling pressure. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 3000. Breach would signal another test of support at the recent lows of 2830 to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":27463,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/08\/19\/sp-500-sales-earnings-capital-flows\/","url_meta":{"origin":19482,"position":2},"title":"S&P 500 sales, earnings & capital flows","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 19, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is trading at a forward PE of 23.35, higher than any previous reading in the past 120 years except for the Dotcom bubble. Forward estimates of earnings are from S&P Dow Jones Indices. Historic PE, based on highest trailing earnings (PEmax), has eased to 25.76. Again, higher\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6178,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/14\/the-most-compelling-argument-for-equities-pragmatic-capitalism\/","url_meta":{"origin":19482,"position":3},"title":"The Most Compelling Argument for Equities | Pragmatic Capitalism","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 14, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Cullen Roche quotes David Rosenberg: The Fed has also completely altered the relationship between stocks and bonds by nurturing an environment of ever deeper negative real interest rates. Therein lies the rub. The economy and earnings are weak, and getting weaker, but the interest rate used to discount the future\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earnings & Dividends"","block_context":{"text":"Earnings & Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61436,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/27\/a-25-tariff-on-motor-vehicles-rocks-financial-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":19482,"position":4},"title":"A 25% tariff on motor vehicles rocks financial markets","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 27, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The announcement of a new 25% tariff on imports of motor vehicles and foreign-made parts unsettled financial markets, with the S&P 500 retreating to 5700. Consumer confidence is plunging, and Goldman Sachs forecasts large outflows from equities. The S&P 500 retreated from resistance at 5800. Follow-through below 5700 would warn\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-26-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-26-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-26-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19334,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/dont-fight-the-fed\/","url_meta":{"origin":19482,"position":5},"title":"Don’t fight the Fed","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 26, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed is again expanding its balance sheet in response to the recent interest rate spike in repo markets. The effect is the same as QE: the Fed is creating new money (reserve balances) and pumping this into financial markets. Why is this happening? The US government is issuing record\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19482","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19482"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19482\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19483,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19482\/revisions\/19483"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19482"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19482"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19482"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}