{"id":19458,"date":"2019-11-16T02:02:45","date_gmt":"2019-11-16T02:02:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19458"},"modified":"2019-11-16T02:02:45","modified_gmt":"2019-11-16T02:02:45","slug":"stretching-credulity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/16\/stretching-credulity\/","title":{"rendered":"Stretching credulity"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fed Chairman, Jay Powell says the US economy is strong.<\/p>\n

But they have cut interest rates three times this year.<\/p>\n

And it’s all hands to the pump below decks. The Fed expanded their balance sheet by $288 billion since September and broad money (MZM plus time deposits) growth has almost doubled to $1.4 trillion this year.<\/p>\n

\"Fed<\/p>\n

Donald Trump says that a Phase 1 trade deal has been settled with China.<\/p>\n

But the two parties can’t seem to agree on whether China’s agricultural purchases are part of the deal (China is reluctant to commit to a $ amount).<\/p>\n

Nor can they recall whether rolling back tariffs was part of the deal. China would like to think so but Trump is now threatening to increase tariffs if a deal isn’t signed.<\/p>\n

Fundamentals show that activity is contracting. Industrial production is falling.<\/p>\n

\"Fed<\/p>\n

Freight shipments are contracting.<\/p>\n

\"Cass<\/p>\n

And retail sales growth is declining.<\/p>\n

\"Advance<\/p>\n

Yet Dow Jones Industrials just broke 28,000 for the first time, while Trend Index troughs above zero show long-term buying pressure.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

\"Paul<\/a><\/p>\n

“Explosive” is the right word.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed Chairman, Jay Powell says the US economy is strong. But they have cut interest rates three times this year. And it’s all hands to the pump below decks. The Fed expanded their balance sheet by $288 billion since September and broad money (MZM plus time deposits) growth has almost doubled to $1.4 trillion this … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Stretching credulity”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,41,46,3761,57,34],"tags":[1113,4161],"class_list":["post-19458","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-china-hk","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-paul-tudor-jones"],"yoast_head":"\nStretching credulity - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stretching credulity - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Fed Chairman, Jay Powell says the US economy is strong. But they have cut interest rates three times this year. And it’s all hands to the pump below decks. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-53Q","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":62979,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/28\/market-optimism-on-trade-talks\/","url_meta":{"origin":19458,"position":0},"title":"Market Optimism on Trade Talks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 28, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The S&P 500 will likely test resistance at 7000 if another US-China trade deal is announced this week. Gold, copper, and uranium all retreated on optimism over a potential trade deal. Still, we remain bearish on the dollar and bullish on the three as a long-term hedge against\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Chicago Fed National Activity Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-27-nai.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-27-nai.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-27-nai.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18403,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/13\/no-us-china-trade-deal\/","url_meta":{"origin":19458,"position":1},"title":"No US-China trade deal","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 13, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\"On Monday, US President Trump told reporters that he would impose tariffs on an additional USD 300 billion of Chinese goods if Xi Jinping doesn\u2019t meet with him in Japan.\" ~ Trivium China, June 12, 2019 Trump is doing his best to kill any chance of a trade deal. He\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61503,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/08\/trade-war-threat-to-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":19458,"position":2},"title":"Trade war threatens markets","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 8, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary Rising 10-year Treasury yields warn of a capital outflow from Treasury markets Donald Trump's threat to levy further tariffs on China risks an all-out trade war The Chinese yuan has weakened against the dollar The bear market continues I will be traveling over the next few days, and my\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "US & Canada"","block_context":{"text":"US & Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-08-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-08-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-08-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19549,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/07\/silver-bearish-for-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":19458,"position":3},"title":"Silver bearish for Gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 7, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Silver broke support at $16.80\/ounce, warning of another decline. Declining Trend Index peaks indicate selling pressure. Gold has yet to break support at $1450 but is likely to follow Silver if Treasury yields rise. Higher Treasury yields weaken demand for Gold; it increases the opportunity cost of holding precious metals\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18478,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/29\/sp-500-plan-b\/","url_meta":{"origin":19458,"position":4},"title":"S&P 500: Plan B","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 29, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is testing its all-time high at 2950. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of secondary selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and would signal retracement to test support at 2750. The 10-Year Treasury yield has fallen to 2.0%, indicating that the Fed is expected to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":60711,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/03\/why-tariffs-are-bullish-for-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":19458,"position":5},"title":"Why tariffs are bullish for gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 3, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Donald Trump is doing his best to endear himself to Canadians. He assumes that Canadians would welcome him as their President. Old men playing with maps are dangerous, not only to their neighbors but also to their citizens, as Russians can attest. His target is the Canadian automotive industry, heavily\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Donald Trump on Truth Social","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-03-trump-canada.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19458","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19458"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19458\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19459,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19458\/revisions\/19459"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19458"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19458"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19458"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}