{"id":19450,"date":"2019-11-15T23:32:52","date_gmt":"2019-11-15T23:32:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19450"},"modified":"2019-11-15T23:36:24","modified_gmt":"2019-11-15T23:36:24","slug":"asx-200-diverges-from-fundamentals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/15\/asx-200-diverges-from-fundamentals\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX 200 diverges from fundamentals"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Seasonally adjusted labour force estimates show a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/abs@.nsf\/mf\/6202.0\">decline in October 2019<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Employment decreased by 19,000 to 12,919,200 people<br \/>\n(full-time -10,300 and part-time -8,700).<\/li>\n<li>Unemployment rate increased by 0.1 pts to 5.3%.<\/li>\n<li>Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased by 2.8 million hours to 1,783.9 million hours.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The leading indicator of employment has been predicting a down-turn in employment for some time, recording its <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.employment.gov.au\/system\/files\/doc\/other\/lioe_1119.pdf\">sixteenth consecutive monthly fall<\/a> in November.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-15-aus-leading.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Leading Employment Indicator\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Job advertisements have also declined since late 2018.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-15-aus-jobads.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Job Ads &amp; Vacancies\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Falling employment has a knock-on effect in other areas of the economy:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>According to Tony Weber, chief executive of the FCAI, new vehicles have now seen the nineteenth consecutive month of decreasing sales in the Australian market, with October 2019 sales down 9.1% compared to October 2018.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Year to date sales of new motor vehicles in 2019 are almost 78,000 units (eight per cent) lower than the same period in 2018&#8230;&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/abs@.nsf\/Latestproducts\/8501.0Main Features2Sep 2019\">Retail sales<\/a> are also soft:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>In volume terms, the seasonally adjusted estimate for the September quarter 2019 fell 0.1%. This follows a 0.1% rise in the June quarter 2019, and a 0.1% fall in the March quarter 2019.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>But the ASX 200, seemingly unperturbed, is testing resistance at 6800. Breakout would signal a primary advance with a target of 7200. Breach of support at 6400 seems unlikely but would warn of a decline with a target of 5400.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-15-xjo.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>There are, however, signs of weakness in the largest two sectors.<\/p>\n<p>ASX 300 Banks index penetrated its rising trendline, warning of a correction. Declining peaks on the Trend Index indicate secondary selling pressure. Follow-through of the index below 7600 would strengthen the bear signal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-15-xbak.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 300 Banks\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/candlestick_patterns\/candlestick-patterns.php#candlestick_hanging_man\">hanging man candlestick<\/a> warns the ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining index is likely to again test support at 4100 ( the neckline of a large <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/technical\/head_and_shoulders.php\">head-and-shoulders reversal pattern<\/a> ). A Trend Index peak near zero would indicate continued selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-15-xmm.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Iron ore continues its primary decline, since breaking support at 90. Our long-term target is 65.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-15-tr.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Iron Ore\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We maintain low exposure to Australian equities, with a focus on defensive and contra-cyclical stocks, because of our bearish outlook. But ASX 200 breakout above 6800 would force us to re-examine our outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Seasonally adjusted labour force estimates show a decline in October 2019: Employment decreased by 19,000 to 12,919,200 people (full-time -10,300 and part-time -8,700). Unemployment rate increased by 0.1 pts to 5.3%. Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased by 2.8 million hours to 1,783.9 million hours. The leading indicator of employment has been predicting a &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/15\/asx-200-diverges-from-fundamentals\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;ASX 200 diverges from fundamentals&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,43,46,57],"tags":[251,260,262,1227,1902,1958],"class_list":["post-19450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-300-banks","tag-asx-300-metals-mining","tag-employment","tag-iron-ore","tag-job-ads"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ASX 200 diverges from fundamentals - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX 200 diverges from fundamentals - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Seasonally adjusted labour force estimates show a decline in October 2019: Employment decreased by 19,000 to 12,919,200 people (full-time -10,300 and part-time -8,700). Unemployment rate increased by 0.1 pts to 5.3%. Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased by 2.8 million hours to 1,783.9 million hours. 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Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased by 2.8 million hours to 1,783.9 million hours. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-53I","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":50190,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/21\/asx-200-rallies-as-unemployment-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":19450,"position":0},"title":"ASX 200 rallies as unemployment falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 21, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 recovered above 7700 yesterday, the higher Trend Index trough indicating strong buying pressure. Follow-through above 7800 would confirm a fresh advance, with a target of 8000. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.7% in February, although the Trend measure remains steady at 3.8%. Monthly hours worked jumped to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-20-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-20-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-20-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61087,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/20\/asx-200-falls-as-outlook-brightens\/","url_meta":{"origin":19450,"position":1},"title":"ASX 200 falls as outlook brightens","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 20, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The six-month annualized growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index rose to a more than two-year high, indicating a \"gradual recovery rather than a sudden surge,\" according to Matthew Hassan at Westpac. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in January 2025, but the trend remained at 4.0%.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":44872,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/23\/asx-200-breaks-primary-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":19450,"position":2},"title":"ASX 200 breaks primary support","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 23, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The labor market remains tight, with a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 3.6% in September\u00a0 (ABS). Monthly hours worked eased slightly to 1.93 billion hours, from 1.94 billion in August. Annual growth has slowed the past three months, from 5.2% in July to 2.9% in September. Negative growth would warn\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Unemployment Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-23-u3-861x526.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-23-u3-861x526.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-23-u3-861x526.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-23-u3-861x526.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56055,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/30\/asx-200-stalls-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":19450,"position":3},"title":"ASX 200 stalls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 30, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 advance is stalling as uncertainty over US financial markets grows and resources demand from China fades. Employment is edging lower but the Leading Indicator warns of a sharp fall ahead that could impact on the large Financials sector. ASX 200 The ASX 200 is retracing to test\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-29-xjo2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-29-xjo2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-29-xjo2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58477,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/17\/asx-200-jumps-to-new-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":19450,"position":4},"title":"ASX 200 jumps to new high","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 17, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A strong September jobs report boosted the ASX 200 to a new high of 8355, confirming our target of 8500 for this year. Labor Market The Australian economy added a seasonally adjusted 64,100 jobs in September, according to the latest Labour Report, well above expectations of 25,000. The unemployment rate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: Employment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-16-aus-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-16-aus-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-16-aus-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56762,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/17\/asx-200-boosted-by-strong-financials\/","url_meta":{"origin":19450,"position":5},"title":"ASX 200 boosted by strong Financials","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 17, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Buoyed by the prospect of lower US interest rates, the ASX 200 broke resistance at 7900, signaling another test of the recent high at 8100. Financials led the way with a strong rally above 8000, boosted by strong earnings from Commonwealth (CBA) and earlier Westpac (WBC). However, Metals & Mining\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-16-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-16-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-16-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19450"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19450\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19455,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19450\/revisions\/19455"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}