{"id":19383,"date":"2019-11-08T20:54:31","date_gmt":"2019-11-08T20:54:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19383"},"modified":"2019-11-08T20:54:31","modified_gmt":"2019-11-08T20:54:31","slug":"asx-banks-profit-squeeze-but-miners-bullish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/08\/asx-banks-profit-squeeze-but-miners-bullish\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX banks profit squeeze but miners bullish"},"content":{"rendered":"

Iron ore continues its primary decline, having broken support at 90. Expect a test of the long-term target at 65.<\/p>\n

\"Iron<\/p>\n

ASX 300 Metals & Mining index rallied during the week. I was expecting another test of support at 4100 ( the neckline of a large head-and-shoulders reversal pattern<\/a> ) but a higher Money Flow trough near zero indicates buying pressure. A large divergence between iron ore and the Metals & Mining index warns that something is afoot.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

The CEOs of ANZ, Westpac and NAB this week all mentioned pressure on net interest margins in their earnings announcements.<\/p>\n

\"Net<\/p>\n

But as this chart of fee and other income to March 2019 shows, it is not just interest margins that are under pressure. Transaction fees are steadily declining, while low book growth in recent years has resulted in declining lending fees. The recent sharp fall in other fee-based activity is also unlikely to recover as banks shed their troublesome wealth management business units.<\/p>\n

\"Majors:
\nSource APRA: Major Banks<\/em><\/p>\n

ASX 300 Banks index retreated below its rising trendline, warning of a correction. Declining peaks on the Trend Index indicate secondary selling pressure. Follow-through below 7600 would strengthen the signal.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

REITs have been experiencing selling pressure in the last few months despite the scramble for yield, with descending peaks on Twiggs Money Flow and a bearish descending triangle<\/a>. Breach of support at 1600 would offer a short-term target of 1500.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

ASX 200<\/h2>\n

Financials are mildly bearish but miners are surprisingly bullish. An ascending triangle on the ASX 200 signals buying pressure, while the declining peaks on Money Flow are modest in relation to the overall up-trend. Breakout above 6800 would signal another advance with a target of 7200. Breach of support at 6400 is now less likely but would warn of a decline with a target of 5400. As always, the two biggest sectors, Financials and Mining, are likely to point the way.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

We maintain low exposure to Australian equities, with a focus on defensive and contra-cyclical stocks, because of our bearish outlook. But ASX 200 breakout above 6800 would force us to review our outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Iron ore continues its primary decline, having broken support at 90. Expect a test of the long-term target at 65. ASX 300 Metals & Mining index rallied during the week. I was expecting another test of support at 4100 ( the neckline of a large head-and-shoulders reversal pattern ) but a higher Money Flow trough … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “ASX banks profit squeeze but miners bullish”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,43,57],"tags":[251,4149,260,262,1902],"class_list":["post-19383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-200-reits","tag-asx-300-banks","tag-asx-300-metals-mining","tag-iron-ore"],"yoast_head":"\nASX banks profit squeeze but miners bullish - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX banks profit squeeze but miners bullish - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Iron ore continues its primary decline, having broken support at 90. 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I was expecting another test of support at 4100 ( the neckline of a large head-and-shoulders reversal pattern ) but a higher Money Flow trough … Continue reading "ASX banks profit squeeze but miners bullish"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/08\/asx-banks-profit-squeeze-but-miners-bullish\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-11-08T20:54:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-08-tr.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/08\/asx-banks-profit-squeeze-but-miners-bullish\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/08\/asx-banks-profit-squeeze-but-miners-bullish\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"ASX banks profit squeeze but miners bullish\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-11-08T20:54:31+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/08\/asx-banks-profit-squeeze-but-miners-bullish\/\"},\"wordCount\":338,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/08\/asx-banks-profit-squeeze-but-miners-bullish\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-08-tr.png\",\"keywords\":[\"ASX 200\",\"ASX 200 REITs\",\"ASX 300 Banks\",\"ASX 300 Metals & Mining\",\"Iron Ore\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia & NZ\",\"Commodities\",\"Stock Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/08\/asx-banks-profit-squeeze-but-miners-bullish\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/08\/asx-banks-profit-squeeze-but-miners-bullish\/\",\"name\":\"ASX banks profit squeeze but miners bullish - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/08\/asx-banks-profit-squeeze-but-miners-bullish\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/08\/asx-banks-profit-squeeze-but-miners-bullish\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-08-tr.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-11-08T20:54:31+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/08\/asx-banks-profit-squeeze-but-miners-bullish\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/08\/asx-banks-profit-squeeze-but-miners-bullish\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/08\/asx-banks-profit-squeeze-but-miners-bullish\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-08-tr.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-11-08-tr.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/08\/asx-banks-profit-squeeze-but-miners-bullish\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"ASX banks profit squeeze but miners bullish\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Expect another test of support at $50 is likely. Breach would signal another decline. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index rallied off support at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15662,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/08\/04\/asx-banks-spoil-the-iron-ore-party\/","url_meta":{"origin":19383,"position":1},"title":"ASX banks spoil the iron ore party","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 4, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"I underestimated the strength of iron ore which has now broken resistance at 70, suggesting that a bottom is forming. Strength of the latest rally indicates that the next correction is likely to find support at 60. The Resources sector responded, with the ASX 300 Metals & Mining index headed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19763,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/08\/asx-hesitates-as-iron-ore-plunges\/","url_meta":{"origin":19383,"position":2},"title":"ASX hesitates as iron ore plunges","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 8, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore plunged $15\/tonne, finding support at $80, on fears that coronavirus would harm exports to China. A lot will depend on China's ability to contain the virus outbreak in the next two weeks, when factories re-open after the Lunar New Year and extended closures. Large parts of the country\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15452,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/16\/strange-week-on-the-asx\/","url_meta":{"origin":19383,"position":3},"title":"Strange week on the ASX","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 16, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Strange week on the ASX, with strong jobs numbers from the ABS causing a surge in the Aussie Dollar and a more optimistic outlook on the ASX. But Iron ore continues to fall, headed for a test of 50. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index respected resistance at 3000\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Aussie dollar"","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15344,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/26\/asx-retreats-as-iron-ore-breaks-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":19383,"position":4},"title":"ASX retreats as iron ore breaks support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 26, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore broke support at $60, signaling another decline. The medium-term target is $50*. * Target: 60 - ( 70 - 60 ) = 50 Resources stocks lost momentum, with the ASX 300 Metals & Mining index respecting resistance at 3000. Twiggs Money Flow seemed to be recovering after a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15565,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/07\/asx-200-banks-run-into-strong-resistance\/","url_meta":{"origin":19383,"position":5},"title":"ASX 200: Banks run into strong resistance","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 7, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore peaked at $60. Expect a sharp fall to test support between $50 and $52, typical of a bear market. Chinese housing price growth -- a key driver of iron ore prices as illustrated last week -- is slowing and likely to drag ore prices lower. The ASX 300\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19383","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19383"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19383\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19384,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19383\/revisions\/19384"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}