{"id":19360,"date":"2019-11-02T01:57:45","date_gmt":"2019-11-02T01:57:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19360"},"modified":"2019-11-02T01:57:45","modified_gmt":"2019-11-02T01:57:45","slug":"a-hell-of-a-mess-in-every-direction-paul-volcker","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/02\/a-hell-of-a-mess-in-every-direction-paul-volcker\/","title":{"rendered":"“A hell of a mess in every direction” – Paul Volcker"},"content":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 strengthened on Friday, closing at a new high of 3067. Volatility (21-day) crossed below 1%, signaling that risk is easing. Money Flow strengthened; a trough above zero suggests another advance. The medium-term target is 3250.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Dow Jones Industrial Average is weaker, with Money Flow having dipped below zero, but breakout above 27,400 would signal another advance. Target for the advance is 29,400.<\/p>\n

\"DJ<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re in a hell of a mess in every direction,\u201d is how Paul Volcker<\/a>, the former Fed Chairman describes it.<\/p>\n

Equities are making new highs, while the Fed cuts interest rates. Donald Trump is effectively dictating monetary policy. This could only end badly.<\/p>\n

Unemployment and initial jobless claims are near record lows.<\/p>\n

\"Unemployment<\/p>\n

Inflationary pressures are moderate, with average wage rates growing between 3.0% and 3.5% (production and non-supervisory employees).<\/p>\n

\"Average<\/p>\n

GDP growth is slowing, however, and likely to fall further according to our advance indicator (estimated hours worked).<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

Payroll growth is also slowing. While this has been explained as a result of record low unemployment (new employees may be hard to find) it is likely that rising uncertainty has played a big part.<\/p>\n

\"Payroll<\/p>\n

The 3-month TMO of Non-Farm Payrolls kicked up to 0.58%, above the amber risk level of 0.5%.<\/p>\n

\"Payroll<\/p>\n

With 73.5% of stocks having reported for Q3, the price-earnings ratio remains elevated. A reading above 20 warns that stocks are over-priced, especially because expected earnings growth is low.<\/p>\n

\"P\/E<\/p>\n

If we project nominal GDP growth (including inflation) at 3.5% and buyback yields at 3.0% (Q2: 3.26%) that gives us anticipated growth of 6.5%. Add dividend yield of 2.0% (Q2: 1.96%) and we can expect stocks to yield a total return (dividends plus growth) of 8.5%.<\/p>\n

\"Nominal<\/p>\n

But that assumes that current price-earnings multiples are maintained. Any downward revision, from earnings disappointments, would most likely result in a negative return.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 strengthened on Friday, closing at a new high of 3067. Volatility (21-day) crossed below 1%, signaling that risk is easing. Money Flow strengthened; a trough above zero suggests another advance. The medium-term target is 3250. Dow Jones Industrial Average is weaker, with Money Flow having dipped below zero, but breakout above 27,400 … <\/p>\n

Continue reading ““A hell of a mess in every direction” – Paul Volcker”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,46,3761,13,57,34],"tags":[1113,3010],"class_list":["post-19360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-inflation-economy","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"\n"A hell of a mess in every direction" - Paul Volcker - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\""A hell of a mess in every direction" - Paul Volcker - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The S&P 500 strengthened on Friday, closing at a new high of 3067. 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Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above 20% would indicate buying pressure. Reversal below support at 16950 is unlikely, but would test\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-16-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-16-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-16-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11246,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/11\/01\/dow-and-sp-500-make-new-highs\/","url_meta":{"origin":19360,"position":1},"title":"Dow and S&P 500 make new highs","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 1, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"US stocks have reaffirmed their bull market European stocks are recovering China and Japan signal up-trends ASX is rising The new reporting season is under way and fund managers are now looking for opportunities rather than selling off under-performers. Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new high, above 17300, signaling\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-11-01-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-11-01-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-11-01-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13751,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/11\/01\/dow-and-sp-500-make-new-highs-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":19360,"position":2},"title":"Dow and S&P 500 make new highs","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 1, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"US stocks have reaffirmed their bull market European stocks are recovering China and Japan signal up-trends ASX is rising Gold is falling The new reporting season is under way and fund managers are now looking for opportunities rather than selling off under-performers. Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new high,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-11-01-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-11-01-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-11-01-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9799,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/14\/dow-and-sp-500-bullish-but-nasdaq-cautious\/","url_meta":{"origin":19360,"position":3},"title":"Dow and S&P 500 bullish, but Nasdaq cautious","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 14, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average broke resistance at its previous high of 16600, signaling a primary advance to 17500*. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 16500 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap. * Target calculation: 16500 + ( 16500 -\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-14-djia.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-14-djia.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-14-djia.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":14530,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/11\/19\/fedex-surges\/","url_meta":{"origin":19360,"position":4},"title":"Fedex surges","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 19, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Bellwether transport stock Fedex surged to a new high this week, signaling an expected rise in economic activity in the US. A Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero also indicates strong buying pressure. Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing resistance at 19000. The doji star indicates indecision rather than a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10791,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/03\/dow-finds-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":19360,"position":5},"title":"Dow finds support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 3, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average retraced to test support at 17000. Respect is likely and would indicate a fresh advance. Follow-through above 17150 would confirm a target of 17500*. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above its July peak would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 16950 is unlikely, but would warn\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-03-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-03-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-03-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19360","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19360"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19360\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22971,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19360\/revisions\/22971"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19360"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19360"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19360"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}