{"id":19334,"date":"2019-10-26T02:04:47","date_gmt":"2019-10-26T02:04:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19334"},"modified":"2019-10-26T02:05:35","modified_gmt":"2019-10-26T02:05:35","slug":"dont-fight-the-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/dont-fight-the-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"Don’t fight the Fed"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Fed is again expanding its balance sheet in response to the recent interest rate spike in repo markets. The effect is the same as QE: the Fed is creating new money (reserve balances) and pumping this into financial markets.<\/p>\n

\"Fed<\/p>\n

Why is this happening?<\/p>\n

The US government is issuing record amounts of new Treasuries to cover Donald Trump’s record deficit.<\/p>\n

\"Fed<\/p>\n

According to Luke Gromen<\/a>: “US govt is on pace to issue $11.3T in USTs on a gross basis in F19.<\/span>”<\/p>\n

Gregor Samsa at Macro-Monitor sums up the problem with the following diagram.<\/p>\n

\"Macro<\/p>\n

If supply-demand curves do your head in, the above graph simply says that when you suppress interest rates, there will be a surplus of Treasuries. The yield is less attractive and demand from investors will fall.<\/p>\n

Not only do we not have enough domestic buyers, foreign (Chinese?) purchases of US Treasuries are drying up. Primary dealers are required to take up the shortfall on any new issues. The recent price spike tells us they don’t want them.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

So it’s all hands to the pump at the Fed. We are likely to see further balance sheet expansion in the months ahead, driving down Treasury yields and the Dollar.<\/p>\n

And lifting equities.<\/p>\n

The flush of new money is likely to suppress volatility.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

And drive equities even further out along the risk curve. Breakout above 3025 would signal another advance.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

We remain cautious. Stocks are highly-priced compared to earnings.<\/p>\n

Corporate profits are falling in real terms.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

And rising personal savings warn that consumption is likely to fall.<\/p>\n

\"Personal<\/p>\n

It all depends on how much money the Fed will print.<\/p>\n

\"Fed<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Fed is again expanding its balance sheet in response to the recent interest rate spike in repo markets. The effect is the same as QE: the Fed is creating new money (reserve balances) and pumping this into financial markets. Why is this happening? The US government is issuing record amounts of new Treasuries to … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Don’t fight the Fed”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,45,46,3761,57,34],"tags":[4150,3010,4151],"class_list":["post-19334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-debt-levels","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-fed-balance-sheet","tag-sp-500","tag-treasury-issuance"],"yoast_head":"\nDon't fight the Fed - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Don't fight the Fed - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Fed is again expanding its balance sheet in response to the recent interest rate spike in repo markets. The effect is the same as QE: the Fed is creating new money (reserve balances) and pumping this into financial markets. Why is this happening? 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-51Q","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":19688,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/25\/irrational-exuberance\/","url_meta":{"origin":19334,"position":0},"title":"Irrational Exuberance","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 25, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"I believe this warrants a separate post: The market is running on more stimulants than a Russian weight-lifter. Unemployment is near record lows but the US Treasury is still running trillion dollar deficits. While the Fed is cutting interest rates. And again expanding its balance sheet. More than twelve years\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19882,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/07\/global-financial-markets-are-sinking\/","url_meta":{"origin":19334,"position":1},"title":"Global financial markets are sinking","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 7, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The current crisis is not caused by the coronavirus. Global financial markets have been at sea in a leaky boat for some time. Central bankers managed to plug the leaks, so far, but it is questionable whether they will be able to weather the approaching COVID-19 storm without sustaining long-term\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":27303,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/08\/11\/the-error-of-a-dollar-reserve-currency-and-fed-dominance\/","url_meta":{"origin":19334,"position":2},"title":"The error of a Dollar reserve currency","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 11, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The era1 of US Dollar reserve currency status started in 1971, when Richard Nixon ended convertibility to gold. The present issues have taken a long time to evolve but are a consequence of that decision. Yesterday we showed how GDP had declined against the M2 money supply2 since the global\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16261,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/12\/no-fed-squeeze-in-sight\/","url_meta":{"origin":19334,"position":3},"title":"No Fed Squeeze in Sight","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 12, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"In January I warned that the Fed's normalization plan, which will shrink its balance sheet at the rate of $100 billion in 2018 and $200 billion a year thereafter, would cause Treasury yields to rise and the Dollar to weaken. 10-Year Treasury yields are now testing resistance at 3.0 percent.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19664,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/22\/the-bull-market-irrational-exuberance\/","url_meta":{"origin":19334,"position":4},"title":"Bull Markets & Irrational Exuberance","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 22, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Bob Doll from Nuveen Investments is more bullish on stocks than I am but sets out his thoughts on what could cause the current run to end: \"Stock valuations are starting to look full, and technical factors are beginning to appear stretched. As stock prices have risen since last summer,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26387,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/19\/fed-spurs-decline-in-lt-treasury-yields\/","url_meta":{"origin":19334,"position":5},"title":"Fed spurs decline in LT Treasury yields","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 19, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields are testing the lower channel of their large flag pattern over the past 3 months. Some pundits argue that this signals the bond market is no longer concerned about inflation. The Fed was scheduled to buy $18.9 billion of Treasuries this week ending June 18th, according to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19334","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19334"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19334\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19335,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19334\/revisions\/19335"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}