{"id":19331,"date":"2019-10-26T00:00:23","date_gmt":"2019-10-26T00:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19331"},"modified":"2019-10-26T00:00:23","modified_gmt":"2019-10-26T00:00:23","slug":"asx-mixed-signals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/asx-mixed-signals\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX mixed signals"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Residential mortgage activity is recovering in response to recent rate cuts. Buyers are unable to resist the ultra-low finance costs, while APRA is sitting on its hands regarding macro-prudential measures (e.g. reducing maximum LVRs) to prevent another credit\/housing bubble. Again, we see a two-speed economy, with mortgage stress in newer suburbs and inner-city units, where homeowners are unable to take advantage of lower rates, and rising prices in older, more established suburbs with lower mortgage exposure.<\/p>\n<p>ASX 200 Financials index is testing resistance at 6500. Higher troughs on the Trend Index indicate buying pressure. There is no sign of a reversal at present but keep a weather eye on primary support at 6000; breach would warn of a primary decline with a target of 5200.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-25-xfj.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 Financials\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Banks face headwinds from pressure on interest margins, increased competition from disruptors in the form of <a href=\"https:\/\/thenewdaily.com.au\/money\/your-budget\/2019\/09\/15\/australians-neo-banks-adoption\/\">neobanks<\/a> (digital banking service providers), and demands to increase capital buffers which could lead to dividend cuts.<\/p>\n<p>Iron ore is testing support at 90. Breach of support would warn of a decline with a long-term target of 65.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-25-tr.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Iron Ore\" \/><\/p>\n<p>ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining index is testing support at 4100, the neckline of a large head-and-shoulders reversal pattern. Declining peaks on the Trend Index signal selling pressure. Breach of support would warn of a decline with a target of 3400.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-25-xmm.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining\" \/><\/p>\n<p>REITs recovered slightly from their recent sell-off but downside risk remains. Breach of support at 1600 would warn of a decline to 1500.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-25-xpj.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 REITs\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>ASX 200<\/h2>\n<p>The ASX 200 continues to give mixed signals. An ascending triangle on the index chart is bullish, but the Trend Index also shows declining peaks, warning of selling pressure. Breakout above 6800 would signal another advance, while breach of support at 6400 would warn of a decline with a target of 5400.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-25-xjo.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We maintain low exposure to Australian equities, with a focus on defensive and contra-cyclical stocks, because of our bearish outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Residential mortgage activity is recovering in response to recent rate cuts. Buyers are unable to resist the ultra-low finance costs, while APRA is sitting on its hands regarding macro-prudential measures (e.g. reducing maximum LVRs) to prevent another credit\/housing bubble. Again, we see a two-speed economy, with mortgage stress in newer suburbs and inner-city units, where &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/asx-mixed-signals\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;ASX mixed signals&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,43,57],"tags":[251,4003,4149,262,1902],"class_list":["post-19331","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-200-financials","tag-asx-200-reits","tag-asx-300-metals-mining","tag-iron-ore"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ASX mixed signals - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX mixed signals - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Residential mortgage activity is recovering in response to recent rate cuts. Buyers are unable to resist the ultra-low finance costs, while APRA is sitting on its hands regarding macro-prudential measures (e.g. reducing maximum LVRs) to prevent another credit\/housing bubble. Again, we see a two-speed economy, with mortgage stress in newer suburbs and inner-city units, where &hellip; Continue reading &quot;ASX mixed signals&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/asx-mixed-signals\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-10-26T00:00:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-25-xfj.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/asx-mixed-signals\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/asx-mixed-signals\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"ASX mixed signals\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-10-26T00:00:23+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/asx-mixed-signals\/\"},\"wordCount\":306,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/asx-mixed-signals\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-25-xfj.png\",\"keywords\":[\"ASX 200\",\"ASX 200 Financials\",\"ASX 200 REITs\",\"ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining\",\"Iron Ore\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia &amp; NZ\",\"Commodities\",\"Stock Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/asx-mixed-signals\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/asx-mixed-signals\/\",\"name\":\"ASX mixed signals - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/asx-mixed-signals\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/asx-mixed-signals\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-25-xfj.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-10-26T00:00:23+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/asx-mixed-signals\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/asx-mixed-signals\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/asx-mixed-signals\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-25-xfj.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-25-xfj.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/26\/asx-mixed-signals\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"ASX mixed signals\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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Declining Household Spending Household income growth is faltering and weighing down consumption. Household spending would have fallen even further, dragging the economy into recession, if households were not digging into savings to maintain their\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61037,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/18\/asx-200-falls-on-rba-rate-cut\/","url_meta":{"origin":19331,"position":1},"title":"ASX 200 falls on RBA rate cut","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 18, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA cut its cash rate target by 25 basis points today but warned mortgage holders not to expect deep rate cuts. The primary basis for the rate cuts was the lower-than-expected CPI data for the December quarter, with the Trimmed Mean of CPI falling to 3.2%. The RBA lowered\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"RBA Cash Rate Target","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-18-rba-cashrate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-18-rba-cashrate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-18-rba-cashrate.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19362,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/04\/asx-iron-ore-breaks-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":19331,"position":2},"title":"ASX: Iron ore breaks support","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 4, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore broke support at 90, falling sharply to $83.55\/ton. Expect a decline to test the long-term target at 65. ASX 300 Metals & Mining index rallied slightly but another test of support at 4100 is likely -- the neckline of a large head-and-shoulders reversal pattern. Declining peaks on the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18028,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/22\/asx-200-financials-materials-test-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":19331,"position":3},"title":"ASX 200: Financials &#038; Materials test support","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 22, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Financials are testing their new support level at 5900\/6000. Falling housing prices are likely to drag the index lower. Penetration of the rising trendline at 5800 would warn of another test of primary support at 5300. Materials are also testing their new support level at 12500\/12600 but respect is far\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17886,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/15\/asx-200-enjoys-iron-ore-spike\/","url_meta":{"origin":19331,"position":4},"title":"ASX 200 enjoys iron ore spike","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 15, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 has been buoyed by a temporary spike in iron ore prices. Materials (comprising 18.5% of the main index) broke through resistance at 12500, signaling a primary advance. A higher trough on Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. The ASX 200 encountered resistance at 6100 but the rally\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19545,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/","url_meta":{"origin":19331,"position":5},"title":"Banks drag on ASX 200","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 6, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Banks are plagued by fears of large AUSTRAC penalties for breaches of anti money-laundering and counter-terrorism regulations. Commonwealth have paid a $700 million fine, Westpac have already been charged, NAB alerted investors of potential liabilities in their annual report, while ANZ says there are no signs of transgressions. In other\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19331","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19331"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19331\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19332,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19331\/revisions\/19332"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19331"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19331"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19331"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}