{"id":19094,"date":"2019-10-16T05:56:08","date_gmt":"2019-10-16T05:56:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19094"},"modified":"2019-10-16T05:56:08","modified_gmt":"2019-10-16T05:56:08","slug":"martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/","title":{"rendered":"Martin North: Mortgage stress highest ever in Australia"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/K9VOI9mhVPE?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;start=375&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Martin North at DFA does monthly household surveys to assess the granularity of property data in Australia. What he finds is that one-third of households (about 1 million) are in mortgage stress. In Sydney, the problem is concentrated in the Western suburbs and inner city units.<\/p>\n<p>Many Western and outer fringe households bought in at high prices and have experienced price falls of 30% or more. They are locked in because of little or no remaining equity and cannot refinance to get the benefit of lower rates. They have run down savings and run up credit cards in the hope that the situation would improve but there has been little movement in these areas and banks are starting to foreclose.<\/p>\n<p>Inner city units have suffered similar price falls but also face the problem of poor construction standards which makes resale difficult.<\/p>\n<p>Martin is skeptical of high auction clearance rates and recovery in prices, pointing out that this is largely restricted to the Eastern suburbs where households enjoy much lower mortgage exposure relative to property values.<\/p>\n<p>Hat tip to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2019\/10\/martin-north-presents-property-bear-case-to-fundies\/\">Macrobusiness<\/a> where I found the video.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Martin North at DFA does monthly household surveys to assess the granularity of property data in Australia. What he finds is that one-third of households (about 1 million) are in mortgage stress. In Sydney, the problem is concentrated in the Western suburbs and inner city units. Many Western and outer fringe households bought in at &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Martin North: Mortgage stress highest ever in Australia&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,10],"tags":[4144,4143],"class_list":["post-19094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-housing-economy","tag-dfa","tag-martin-north"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Martin North: Mortgage stress highest ever in Australia - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Martin North: Mortgage stress highest ever in Australia - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Martin North at DFA does monthly household surveys to assess the granularity of property data in Australia. What he finds is that one-third of households (about 1 million) are in mortgage stress. In Sydney, the problem is concentrated in the Western suburbs and inner city units. Many Western and outer fringe households bought in at &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Martin North: Mortgage stress highest ever in Australia&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-10-16T05:56:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Martin North: Mortgage stress highest ever in Australia\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-10-16T05:56:08+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/\"},\"wordCount\":198,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"DFA\",\"Martin North\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia &amp; NZ\",\"Housing\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/\",\"name\":\"Martin North: Mortgage stress highest ever in Australia - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2019-10-16T05:56:08+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Martin North: Mortgage stress highest ever in Australia\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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In Sydney, the problem is concentrated in the Western suburbs and inner city units. Many Western and outer fringe households bought in at &hellip; Continue reading \"Martin North: Mortgage stress highest ever in Australia\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2019-10-16T05:56:08+00:00","author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Martin North: Mortgage stress highest ever in Australia","datePublished":"2019-10-16T05:56:08+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/"},"wordCount":198,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["DFA","Martin North"],"articleSection":["Australia &amp; NZ","Housing"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/","name":"Martin North: Mortgage stress highest ever in Australia - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2019-10-16T05:56:08+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/16\/martin-north-mortgage-stress-highest-ever-in-australia\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Martin North: Mortgage stress highest ever in Australia"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4XY","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":19282,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/19\/asx-and-3-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":19094,"position":0},"title":"ASX and 3 headwinds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 19, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Despite recent strong performance, investor enthusiasm may be cooling, with the Australian economy facing three headwinds. Declining Household Spending Household income growth is faltering and weighing down consumption. Household spending would have fallen even further, dragging the economy into recession, if households were not digging into savings to maintain their\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19545,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/banks-drag-on-asx-200\/","url_meta":{"origin":19094,"position":1},"title":"Banks drag on ASX 200","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 6, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Banks are plagued by fears of large AUSTRAC penalties for breaches of anti money-laundering and counter-terrorism regulations. Commonwealth have paid a $700 million fine, Westpac have already been charged, NAB alerted investors of potential liabilities in their annual report, while ANZ says there are no signs of transgressions. In other\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15132,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/04\/09\/why-we-need-to-worry-about-the-level-of-australian-household-debt\/","url_meta":{"origin":19094,"position":2},"title":"Why we need to worry about the level of Australian household debt","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 9, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"From Elizabeth Knight: The balance sheets of Australian households with a mortgage are dangerously exposed to any fall in house prices. It isn't just that household debt relative to disposable incomes has reached a record high of 189 per cent, it's that households' ability to service that debt is potentially\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6099,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/08\/australia-did-apra-assume-a-bailout-in-its-stress-test\/","url_meta":{"origin":19094,"position":3},"title":"Australia: Did APRA assume a bailout in its stress test?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 8, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Houses and Holes at Macrobusiness.com.au makes an important point regarding the Australian mortgage insurance sector towards the end of this article: John Laker, head of APRA, is out today with a speech in which he announced the results of a recent APRA stress test of Australian banks. Here is the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Stress Test","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/stress_test-300x255.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":14739,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/01\/30\/bis-high-household-debt-kills-growth-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":19094,"position":4},"title":"BIS: High household debt kills growth | Macrobusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 30, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"From Leith van Onselen, reproduced with kind permission from Macrobusiness: Last month I showed how Australia\u2019s ratio of household debt to GDP had hit 123% of GDP \u2013 the third highest in the world \u2013 according to data released by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS): Martin North also compiled\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ScreenHunter_16670 Dec. 13 07.13","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/ScreenHunter_16670-Dec.-13-07.13-240x660.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":47367,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/01\/18\/australian-households-feel-the-pinch\/","url_meta":{"origin":19094,"position":5},"title":"Australian households feel the pinch","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 18, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Household disposable income (blue below) is contracting at the fastest rate in more than thirty years. Consumption growth (orange) is now close to zero and likely to fall further as savings are depleted. Fiscal drag -- caused by inflation pushing households into higher tax brackets -- has caused a sharp\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Household Income","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/household-income-and-consumption.gif?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/household-income-and-consumption.gif?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/household-income-and-consumption.gif?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19094","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19094"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19094\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19095,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19094\/revisions\/19095"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19094"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19094"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19094"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}