{"id":19059,"date":"2019-10-12T05:44:45","date_gmt":"2019-10-12T05:44:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19059"},"modified":"2019-10-12T05:47:56","modified_gmt":"2019-10-12T05:47:56","slug":"sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump and is making noises about an interim trade deal<\/a> with the CCP, while Boris Johnson appears to be making progress on a Brexit deal<\/a> with Ireland premier Leo Varadkar.<\/p>\n

Trump’s announcement is little more than a sham, intended to goose financial markets, with nothing yet committed to writing:<\/p>\n

“Trump said the deal would take three to five weeks to write and could possibly be wrapped up and signed by the middle of November\u2026.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

…what could possibly go wrong?<\/p>\n

The economy continues to tick along steadily, with unemployment and initial jobless claims near record lows.<\/p>\n

\"Unemployment<\/p>\n

But high levels of uncertainty<\/a> are likely to create a drag on consumer spending and stock earnings.<\/p>\n

At the outset of Donal Trump’s presidency, value investor Seth Klarman, who runs the $30 billion Baupost Group hedge fund, predicted<\/a> the impact that Trump would have on financial markets:<\/p>\n

\u201cThe erratic tendencies and overconfidence in his own wisdom and judgment that Donald Trump has demonstrated to date are inconsistent with strong leadership and sound decision-making…..<\/p>\n

The big picture for investors is this: Trump is high volatility, and investors generally abhor volatility and shun uncertainty…. Not only is Trump shockingly unpredictable, he\u2019s apparently deliberately so; he says it\u2019s part of his plan.\u201d<\/p>\n

In his letter, Mr Klarman warned: \u201cIf things go wrong, we could find ourselves at the beginning of a lengthy decline in dollar hegemony, a rapid rise in interest rates and inflation, and global angst.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

While not entirely prescient — we have low interest rates and low inflation — Klarman was right about the decline in dollar hegemony and the rise in global angst.<\/p>\n

Markets are clearly in risk-off mode.<\/p>\n

US Equity ETFs recorded a net outflow of $824m this week, compared to a net inflow of $2,104m into US Fixed Income. Year-to-date flows present a similar picture, with a 3.3% inflow into US Equity compared to 13.9% into US Fixed Income (Source: ETF.com<\/a>).<\/p>\n

\"ETF<\/p>\n

Long tails on the S&P 500 candles indicate buying support. Expect another test of our long-term target at 3000. Volatility remains above 1%, however, indicating elevated risk. Breach of 2800 is unlikely at present but would offer a target of 2400.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

According to Factset<\/a>, the S&P 500 is likely to report a third quarter this year with a year-on-year decline in earnings.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/a><\/p>\n

The Nasdaq 100 paints a similar picture, with another test of 8000 likely.<\/p>\n

\"Nasdaq<\/p>\n

It is becoming impossible to justify current heady earnings multiples when reported earnings are declining.<\/p>\n

Europe<\/h2>\n

If Johnson’s “free trade zone” for Northern Ireland<\/a> can break the Brexit impasse, then there may be room for optimism over the future UK – EU relationship.<\/p>\n

Europe seems to be stirring. Trailing a distant third, to North America and Asia in terms of investment performance, there are some early encouraging signs. A higher trough indicates buying pressure and breakout above 400 on DJ Stoxx Euro 600 would signal a primary advance.<\/p>\n

\"DJ<\/p>\n

The Footsie shows similar early signs of a potential recovery. A higher trough on the trend Index indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 7600 would signal a primary advance.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

Let us hope that this is not a false dawn and the UK and EU are able to resolve their differences.<\/p>\n

For the present, our outlook for the global economy remains bearish and equity exposure for International Growth<\/a> is a low 34% of portfolio value.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump and is making noises about an interim trade deal with the CCP, while Boris Johnson appears to be making progress on a Brexit deal with Ireland premier Leo Varadkar. Trump’s announcement is little more than a sham, intended to goose financial markets, with nothing yet committed to writing: “Trump said the deal would … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,3778,57,33,34],"tags":[3940,1481,4141,2401,3010,3531],"class_list":["post-19059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-international-trade","category-stock-markets","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-dj-euro-stoxx-600","tag-ftse-100","tag-initial-jobless-claims","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-sp-500","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Donald Trump and is making noises about an interim trade deal with the CCP, while Boris Johnson appears to be making progress on a Brexit deal with Ireland premier Leo Varadkar. 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US market PMI collapsed to -27.4 for April, lower than the 2008 GFC, warning of an economic depression with GDP contracting more than 10%. Projected earnings for the S&P 500\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20437,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/","url_meta":{"origin":19059,"position":1},"title":"No V-shaped Recovery","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 2, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Initial jobless claims in the US for the 6 weeks to April 25th exceed 30 million. That will take unemployment above 20%, with total jobs falling to levels last seen in 1997, and more job losses still to come. Employment is the key to economic recovery. While unemployment is high,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19360,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/02\/a-hell-of-a-mess-in-every-direction-paul-volcker\/","url_meta":{"origin":19059,"position":2},"title":"“A hell of a mess in every direction” – Paul Volcker","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 2, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 strengthened on Friday, closing at a new high of 3067. Volatility (21-day) crossed below 1%, signaling that risk is easing. Money Flow strengthened; a trough above zero suggests another advance. The medium-term target is 3250. Dow Jones Industrial Average is weaker, with Money Flow having dipped below\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20158,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/28\/sp-500-markets-face-two-types-of-contagion\/","url_meta":{"origin":19059,"position":3},"title":"S&P 500: Markets face two types of contagion","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 28, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 faces two types of threat. First, is the coronavirus outbreak. But equally dangerous is the financial contagion that will follow. Financial markets are heavily inter-connected and regulators do not have the ability to build adequate firebreaks to contain the outbreak in a single sector. Behavior of one\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20257,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/15\/sp-500-and-the-volatility-spike\/","url_meta":{"origin":19059,"position":4},"title":"The S&P 500 volatility spike","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 15, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"This comment from Bob Doll at Nuveen Investments intrigued me: Stocks have probably already seen their primary low for this bear market. Bear markets typically occur in stages. First is a waterfall decline. We think that phase may have ended on March 22 when the S&P 500 bottomed at 2,192.1\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18191,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/11\/sp-500-no-deal\/","url_meta":{"origin":19059,"position":5},"title":"S&P 500: No deal","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 11, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"It looks like there will be no trade deal any time soon. \"Trade talks between China and the United States ended on Friday without a deal as President Trump raised tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports and signaled he was prepared for a prolonged economic fight..... Trump is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19059","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19059"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19059\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19064,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19059\/revisions\/19064"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19059"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19059"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19059"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}