{"id":19059,"date":"2019-10-12T05:44:45","date_gmt":"2019-10-12T05:44:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19059"},"modified":"2019-10-12T05:47:56","modified_gmt":"2019-10-12T05:47:56","slug":"sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump and is making noises about an interim trade deal<\/a> with the CCP, while Boris Johnson appears to be making progress on a Brexit deal<\/a> with Ireland premier Leo Varadkar.<\/p>\n

Trump’s announcement is little more than a sham, intended to goose financial markets, with nothing yet committed to writing:<\/p>\n

“Trump said the deal would take three to five weeks to write and could possibly be wrapped up and signed by the middle of November\u2026.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

…what could possibly go wrong?<\/p>\n

The economy continues to tick along steadily, with unemployment and initial jobless claims near record lows.<\/p>\n

\"Unemployment<\/p>\n

But high levels of uncertainty<\/a> are likely to create a drag on consumer spending and stock earnings.<\/p>\n

At the outset of Donal Trump’s presidency, value investor Seth Klarman, who runs the $30 billion Baupost Group hedge fund, predicted<\/a> the impact that Trump would have on financial markets:<\/p>\n

\u201cThe erratic tendencies and overconfidence in his own wisdom and judgment that Donald Trump has demonstrated to date are inconsistent with strong leadership and sound decision-making…..<\/p>\n

The big picture for investors is this: Trump is high volatility, and investors generally abhor volatility and shun uncertainty…. Not only is Trump shockingly unpredictable, he\u2019s apparently deliberately so; he says it\u2019s part of his plan.\u201d<\/p>\n

In his letter, Mr Klarman warned: \u201cIf things go wrong, we could find ourselves at the beginning of a lengthy decline in dollar hegemony, a rapid rise in interest rates and inflation, and global angst.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

While not entirely prescient — we have low interest rates and low inflation — Klarman was right about the decline in dollar hegemony and the rise in global angst.<\/p>\n

Markets are clearly in risk-off mode.<\/p>\n

US Equity ETFs recorded a net outflow of $824m this week, compared to a net inflow of $2,104m into US Fixed Income. Year-to-date flows present a similar picture, with a 3.3% inflow into US Equity compared to 13.9% into US Fixed Income (Source: ETF.com<\/a>).<\/p>\n

\"ETF<\/p>\n

Long tails on the S&P 500 candles indicate buying support. Expect another test of our long-term target at 3000. Volatility remains above 1%, however, indicating elevated risk. Breach of 2800 is unlikely at present but would offer a target of 2400.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

According to Factset<\/a>, the S&P 500 is likely to report a third quarter this year with a year-on-year decline in earnings.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/a><\/p>\n

The Nasdaq 100 paints a similar picture, with another test of 8000 likely.<\/p>\n

\"Nasdaq<\/p>\n

It is becoming impossible to justify current heady earnings multiples when reported earnings are declining.<\/p>\n

Europe<\/h2>\n

If Johnson’s “free trade zone” for Northern Ireland<\/a> can break the Brexit impasse, then there may be room for optimism over the future UK – EU relationship.<\/p>\n

Europe seems to be stirring. Trailing a distant third, to North America and Asia in terms of investment performance, there are some early encouraging signs. A higher trough indicates buying pressure and breakout above 400 on DJ Stoxx Euro 600 would signal a primary advance.<\/p>\n

\"DJ<\/p>\n

The Footsie shows similar early signs of a potential recovery. A higher trough on the trend Index indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 7600 would signal a primary advance.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

Let us hope that this is not a false dawn and the UK and EU are able to resolve their differences.<\/p>\n

For the present, our outlook for the global economy remains bearish and equity exposure for International Growth<\/a> is a low 34% of portfolio value.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump and is making noises about an interim trade deal with the CCP, while Boris Johnson appears to be making progress on a Brexit deal with Ireland premier Leo Varadkar. Trump’s announcement is little more than a sham, intended to goose financial markets, with nothing yet committed to writing: “Trump said the deal would … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,3778,57,33,34],"tags":[3940,1481,4141,2401,3010,3531],"class_list":["post-19059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-international-trade","category-stock-markets","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-dj-euro-stoxx-600","tag-ftse-100","tag-initial-jobless-claims","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-sp-500","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Donald Trump and is making noises about an interim trade deal with the CCP, while Boris Johnson appears to be making progress on a Brexit deal with Ireland premier Leo Varadkar. Trump’s announcement is little more than a sham, intended to goose financial markets, with nothing yet committed to writing: “Trump said the deal would … Continue reading "S&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn?"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-10-12T05:44:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-10-12T05:47:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-11-unemployment-initialclaims.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/10\\\/12\\\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/10\\\/12\\\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"S&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn?\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-10-12T05:44:45+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-10-12T05:47:56+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/10\\\/12\\\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":557,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/10\\\/12\\\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-10-11-unemployment-initialclaims.png\",\"keywords\":[\"DJ Euro Stoxx 600\",\"FTSE 100\",\"Initial Jobless Claims\",\"NASDAQ 100\",\"S&P 500\",\"Unemployment\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Deficit Spending & Employment\",\"International Trade\",\"Stock Markets\",\"UK & Europe\",\"US & Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/10\\\/12\\\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/10\\\/12\\\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\\\/\",\"name\":\"S&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn? - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/10\\\/12\\\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/10\\\/12\\\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-10-11-unemployment-initialclaims.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-10-12T05:44:45+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-10-12T05:47:56+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/10\\\/12\\\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/10\\\/12\\\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/10\\\/12\\\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-10-11-unemployment-initialclaims.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-10-11-unemployment-initialclaims.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/10\\\/12\\\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"S&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. \",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\",\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Colin Twiggs\"},\"description\":\"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"S&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn? - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"S&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn? - the patient investor","og_description":"Donald Trump and is making noises about an interim trade deal with the CCP, while Boris Johnson appears to be making progress on a Brexit deal with Ireland premier Leo Varadkar. Trump’s announcement is little more than a sham, intended to goose financial markets, with nothing yet committed to writing: “Trump said the deal would … Continue reading \"S&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn?\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2019-10-12T05:44:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2019-10-12T05:47:56+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-11-unemployment-initialclaims.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"S&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn?","datePublished":"2019-10-12T05:44:45+00:00","dateModified":"2019-10-12T05:47:56+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\/"},"wordCount":557,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-11-unemployment-initialclaims.png","keywords":["DJ Euro Stoxx 600","FTSE 100","Initial Jobless Claims","NASDAQ 100","S&P 500","Unemployment"],"articleSection":["Deficit Spending & Employment","International Trade","Stock Markets","UK & Europe","US & Canada"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\/","name":"S&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn? - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-11-unemployment-initialclaims.png","datePublished":"2019-10-12T05:44:45+00:00","dateModified":"2019-10-12T05:47:56+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-11-unemployment-initialclaims.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-11-unemployment-initialclaims.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/sp-500-and-europe-new-deal-or-a-false-dawn\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"S&P 500 and Europe: New deal or a false dawn?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. ","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4Xp","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":20437,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/no-v-shaped-recovery\/","url_meta":{"origin":19059,"position":0},"title":"No V-shaped Recovery","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 2, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Initial jobless claims in the US for the 6 weeks to April 25th exceed 30 million. That will take unemployment above 20%, with total jobs falling to levels last seen in 1997, and more job losses still to come. Employment is the key to economic recovery. While unemployment is high,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20387,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/25\/sp-500-denial-the-51st-state\/","url_meta":{"origin":19059,"position":1},"title":"S&P 500: Denial, the 51st State","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 25, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Unemployment is expected to hit 17.5% this week, with initial jobless claims totaling 26.5 million in the past five weeks. US market PMI collapsed to -27.4 for April, lower than the 2008 GFC, warning of an economic depression with GDP contracting more than 10%. Projected earnings for the S&P 500\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19360,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/02\/a-hell-of-a-mess-in-every-direction-paul-volcker\/","url_meta":{"origin":19059,"position":2},"title":"“A hell of a mess in every direction” – Paul Volcker","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 2, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 strengthened on Friday, closing at a new high of 3067. Volatility (21-day) crossed below 1%, signaling that risk is easing. Money Flow strengthened; a trough above zero suggests another advance. The medium-term target is 3250. Dow Jones Industrial Average is weaker, with Money Flow having dipped below\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20158,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/28\/sp-500-markets-face-two-types-of-contagion\/","url_meta":{"origin":19059,"position":3},"title":"S&P 500: Markets face two types of contagion","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 28, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 faces two types of threat. First, is the coronavirus outbreak. But equally dangerous is the financial contagion that will follow. Financial markets are heavily inter-connected and regulators do not have the ability to build adequate firebreaks to contain the outbreak in a single sector. Behavior of one\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20257,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/15\/sp-500-and-the-volatility-spike\/","url_meta":{"origin":19059,"position":4},"title":"The S&P 500 volatility spike","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 15, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"This comment from Bob Doll at Nuveen Investments intrigued me: Stocks have probably already seen their primary low for this bear market. Bear markets typically occur in stages. First is a waterfall decline. We think that phase may have ended on March 22 when the S&P 500 bottomed at 2,192.1\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":22076,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/10\/17\/sp-500-stoxx-selling-pressure\/","url_meta":{"origin":19059,"position":5},"title":"S&P 500, Stoxx selling pressure","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 17, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"There is so much political noise leading up to the election that we will try to stick to the hard data. Daily new COVID-19 cases in the US are rising, reaching 69,160 on Friday. Total persons claiming unemployment benefits remains high, at 25.3 million. That is 16.6% of the Feb\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19059","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19059"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19059\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19064,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19059\/revisions\/19064"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19059"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19059"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19059"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}