{"id":19051,"date":"2019-10-12T03:46:07","date_gmt":"2019-10-12T03:46:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19051"},"modified":"2019-10-12T03:46:07","modified_gmt":"2019-10-12T03:46:07","slug":"asx-hesitates-in-its-downward-slide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/asx-hesitates-in-its-downward-slide\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX hesitates in its downward slide"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There is a hint of optimism in the air, with the year-on-year decline in housing prices slowing, to around -5% nationally, on the back of lower interest rates.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-03-aus-housing.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Housing\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The ASX 200 hesitated in its downward slide but is still likely to test support at 6400. Breach would offer a target of 5400.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-11-xjo.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Iron ore continues to trade in a narrow range above short-term support at $90, suggesting continuation of the down-trend. Breach would offer a medium-term target of $80 per ton.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-11-tr.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Iron Ore\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining index is testing long-term support at 4100. Breach would complete a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/technical\/head_and_shoulders.php\">head and shoulders<\/a> reversal, with a target of 3400.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-11-xmm.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Financial sector hesitated slightly, after a sharp fall last week. The rebound was undermined by an ANZ <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asx.com.au\/asxpdf\/20191008\/pdf\/4498x37drfyvq2.pdf\">profit downgrade<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>ANZ today announced its second half 2019 Cash Profit will be impacted by a charge of $559m (after-tax) as a result of increased provisions for customer related remediation.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Major banks&#8217; net interest margins are also under increasing pressure as the RBA lowers interest rates.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-03-aus-bankmargins.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Net Interest Margins\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Expect ASX 200 Financials to test primary support at 6000. Breach would signal a primary decline, with a target of 5200.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-11-xfj.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 Financials\" \/><\/p>\n<p>REITs are surprisingly soft in a financial market desperate for yield. But there is wide disparity in the sector, with BWP for example surging, while office and industrial fund Dexus (DXS) is undergoing a sell-off.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-10-11-xpj.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 REITs\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We maintain exposure to Australian equities at 25% of portfolio value, with a focus on defensive and contra-cyclical stocks, because of our bearish long-term outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is a hint of optimism in the air, with the year-on-year decline in housing prices slowing, to around -5% nationally, on the back of lower interest rates. The ASX 200 hesitated in its downward slide but is still likely to test support at 6400. Breach would offer a target of 5400. Iron ore continues &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/asx-hesitates-in-its-downward-slide\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;ASX hesitates in its downward slide&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,43,57],"tags":[251,4003,262,1732,1902,2439],"class_list":["post-19051","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-200-financials","tag-asx-300-metals-mining","tag-housing","tag-iron-ore","tag-net-interest-margins"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ASX hesitates in its downward slide - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX hesitates in its downward slide - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There is a hint of optimism in the air, with the year-on-year decline in housing prices slowing, to around -5% nationally, on the back of lower interest rates. The ASX 200 hesitated in its downward slide but is still likely to test support at 6400. Breach would offer a target of 5400. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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Support is unlikely to hold and breach would offer a medium-term target of $80 per ton. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index found support at 4100 but the rally is weak. Breach of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15303,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/19\/asx-banks-break-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":19051,"position":1},"title":"ASX banks break support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 19, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The big banks fell sharply on the week's turmoil, with the ASX 300 Banks Index breaking support at 8500. Breach signals a primary trend reversal, offering a medium-term target of 8000*. * Target: 8500 - ( 9000 - 8500 ) = 8000 Resources stocks rallied over the week. Expect strong\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18998,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/28\/asx-200-stubborn-resistance\/","url_meta":{"origin":19051,"position":2},"title":"ASX 200: Stubborn resistance","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 28, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore is headed for another test of short-term support at $90. Breach would signal another decline, with a medium-term target of $80 per ton. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index retreated this week and is expected to test long-term support at 4100. Breach would complete a head and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19023,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/05\/asx-200-hits-a-brick-wall\/","url_meta":{"origin":19051,"position":3},"title":"ASX 200 hits a brick wall","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 5, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 retreated sharply from stubborn resistance at the 2007 high of 6800, like hitting a brick wall. Breach of support at 6400, after a lower high, is now more likely and would offer a target of 5400. Iron ore continues to test short-term support at $90. Breach is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19476,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/22\/asx-200-banks-break-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":19051,"position":4},"title":"ASX 200: Banks break support","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 22, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"ASX 300 Banks index broke support at 7600, signaling a correction to test primary support at 6750. Declining peaks on the Trend Index confirm selling pressure. The ASX 200 REITs index has formed a bearish descending triangle. Breach of support at 1600 would warn of a correction. It seems unlikely\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":56460,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/08\/asx-dead-cat-bounce-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":19051,"position":5},"title":"ASX dead cat bounce","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 8, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 is struggling to recover after its sharp fall to test primary support at 7600. Tall shadows and doji candles indicate hesitancy. Expect strong support between 7550 and 7600 but breach is growing more likely in the longer term. The Financials sector is holding up well, bolstered by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-07-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-07-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-07-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19051","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19051"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19051\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19060,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19051\/revisions\/19060"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19051"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19051"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19051"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}