{"id":19018,"date":"2019-10-03T07:12:42","date_gmt":"2019-10-03T07:12:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19018"},"modified":"2019-10-03T23:30:26","modified_gmt":"2019-10-03T23:30:26","slug":"the-cost-of-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/03\/the-cost-of-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"The high cost of uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"

High levels of uncertainty in international trade, geopolitical outlook, and domestic politics in the USA are likely to have a domino effect on business and consumer confidence.<\/p>\n

Business is likely to postpone or curtail new investment decisions. This is already evident in a down-turn in new capital formation, along with GDP growth, in the first half of the calendar year.<\/p>\n

\"New<\/p>\n

A similar picture is emerging in construction spending.<\/p>\n

\"Construction\/GDP\"<\/p>\n

CEO confidence levels are way down.<\/p>\n

\"CEO<\/a><\/p>\n

A slow-down in business investment in turn impacts on employment, causing a decline in payroll growth and average weekly hours worked.<\/p>\n

\"Non-farm<\/p>\n

Which in turn impacts on consumer sentiment as employees’ anticipation of future earnings declines.<\/p>\n

\"Consumer<\/p>\n

The feedback loop will be completed if consumption falls. Retail sales dipped sharply in late 2018 but are keeping their head above water.<\/p>\n

\"Retail<\/p>\n

And purchases of durables, like light motor vehicles, have leveled off but there is no significant decline so far.<\/p>\n

\"Light<\/p>\n

New housing starts and building permits even kicked up in August in response to lower interest rates.<\/p>\n

\"Housing<\/p>\n

Consumers have, so far, continued spending but a down-turn in the stock market would weigh heavily on sentiment and consumption.<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 broke its rising trendline, indicating a correction. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of secondary selling pressure and a test of support at 2800. Breach of support is by no means certain but would offer a target of 2400.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

We have reduced our equity exposure for International Growth<\/a> to 34% of portfolio value because of our bearish outlook for the global economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

High levels of uncertainty in international trade, geopolitical outlook, and domestic politics in the USA are likely to have a domino effect on business and consumer confidence. Business is likely to postpone or curtail new investment decisions. This is already evident in a down-turn in new capital formation, along with GDP growth, in the first … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “The high cost of uncertainty”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,46,3761,10,57,34],"tags":[582,793,798,1746,2108,2943,3010],"class_list":["post-19018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-housing-economy","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-capital-formation","tag-construction-spending","tag-consumer-sentiment","tag-housing-starts","tag-light-motor-vehicle-sales","tag-retail-sales","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"\nThe high cost of uncertainty - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The high cost of uncertainty - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"High levels of uncertainty in international trade, geopolitical outlook, and domestic politics in the USA are likely to have a domino effect on business and consumer confidence. 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Declining Household Spending Household income growth is faltering and weighing down consumption. Household spending would have fallen even further, dragging the economy into recession, if households were not digging into savings to maintain their\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":22967,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/30\/australias-credit-and-investment-slump\/","url_meta":{"origin":19018,"position":3},"title":"Australia’s credit and investment slump","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 30, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian private credit growth slowed to zero (month-to-month) for October 2020, or 1.8% year-on-year. Housing credit shows a slight up-tick, spurred by first home buyer incentives and ultra-low interest rates. But business credit is falling as investment demand plunges to 2008 lows. Capital expenditure contracted sharply in the services sector\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":43753,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/31\/job-openings-fall-but-some-sectors-still-booming\/","url_meta":{"origin":19018,"position":4},"title":"Job openings fall but some sectors still booming","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 31, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Job openings declined to 8.8 million, narrowing the gap to near-record-low unemployment at 5.8 million. The labor market remains tight but the fall indicates that the economy is slowing. Declining quit rates tell a similar story: pressure is easing but the current high level indicates there is more to go\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Job Openings & Unemployment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-29-jolts-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-29-jolts-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-29-jolts-u3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":21754,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/10\/03\/us-job-recovery-slows\/","url_meta":{"origin":19018,"position":5},"title":"US: Job recovery slows","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 3, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Estimated hours worked are down 5.56% in September, compared to September 2019. GDP growth is likely to track a similar path. Jim Stock's Weekly Economic Index comes in slightly higher, at 4.62%, but doesn't seem to take account of government transfers outside the State Unemployment schemes. More than half of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19018","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19018"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19018\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19022,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19018\/revisions\/19022"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}