{"id":19004,"date":"2019-09-28T05:03:10","date_gmt":"2019-09-28T05:03:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=19004"},"modified":"2019-09-28T05:03:10","modified_gmt":"2019-09-28T05:03:10","slug":"fedex-breaks-support","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/28\/fedex-breaks-support\/","title":{"rendered":"Fedex breaks support"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bellwether transport stock Fedex (FDX) broke long-term support at 150, warning of a decline with a long-term target of 100. A down-trend on Fedex has bearish implications for the broader economy, signaling that activity is declining.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-27-fdx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fedex\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We have been here before: <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com\/2007-11-17.php\">November 2007 &#8211; Fedex Warns of Worse to Come<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>A down-turn in durable goods orders (adjusted for inflation) reinforces our bearish outlook.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-27-durablegoodsorders.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Durable Goods Orders\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is retreating from resistance at 3000. Expect a test of support at 2800. Breach remains unlikely but would signal a reversal with a target of 2400.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-27-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>With year-on-year earnings growth projected at a low 2.1% for the third quarter, the forward price-earnings ratio remains high at 18.97 times forecast earnings. A rough rule-of-thumb:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>below 15 is a buy signal; and<\/li>\n<li>above 20 is a sell signal.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>But when long-term growth prospects are low, then both levels should be adjusted downward.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-27-spx-forwardpe.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Forward PE\" \/><\/p>\n<p>On the global front, crude has recovered from the attack on Saudi Arabia. Follow-trough below $55\/barrel would signal another test of long-term support at $50. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-27-crude.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nymex Light Crude\" \/><\/p>\n<p>DJ-UBS Commodity Index likewise displays Trend Index peaks below zero. Expect another test of support at 76. Breach would signal a (primary) decline.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-27-dubs.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"DJ-UBS Commodities Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The outlook for commodities &#8212; and the global economy &#8212; remains bearish.<\/p>\n<p>We have reduced our equity exposure for International Growth to 36% of portfolio value because of our bearish outlook on the global economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bellwether transport stock Fedex (FDX) broke long-term support at 150, warning of a decline with a long-term target of 100. A down-trend on Fedex has bearish implications for the broader economy, signaling that activity is declining. We have been here before: November 2007 &#8211; Fedex Warns of Worse to Come. A down-turn in durable goods &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/28\/fedex-breaks-support\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Fedex breaks support&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[1064,1146,1362,1449,2527,3010],"class_list":["post-19004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-dj-ubs-commodity-index","tag-durable-goods-orders","tag-fedex","tag-forward-price-earnings-ratio","tag-nymex-light-crude","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fedex breaks support - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fedex breaks support - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bellwether transport stock Fedex (FDX) broke long-term support at 150, warning of a decline with a long-term target of 100. A down-trend on Fedex has bearish implications for the broader economy, signaling that activity is declining. We have been here before: November 2007 &#8211; Fedex Warns of Worse to Come. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4Ww","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":3946,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/03\/24\/secondary-correction-but-watch-fedex\/","url_meta":{"origin":19004,"position":0},"title":"Secondary correction, but watch Fedex","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 24, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The weekly S&P 500 chart suggests retracement to the new support level at 1370. No major deviation on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates this is merely a secondary correction. Respect of 1350 would signal a primary advance. Long-term target for the breakout is 1600*. * Target calculation: 1350 + (\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4011,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/01\/bearish-divergence-for-us-indices\/","url_meta":{"origin":19004,"position":1},"title":"Bearish divergence for US indices","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 1, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure on the S&P 500 index. Expect a correction to test support at 1350\/1370 unless we see 21-day Twiggs Money Flow recovering above 30%. * Target calculation: 1300 + (1300 - 1150) = 1450 The Nasdaq 100 index encountered\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18964,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/21\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\/","url_meta":{"origin":19004,"position":2},"title":"The canary in the coal mine","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 21, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Bellwether transport stock Fedex (FDX) is testing long-term support at 150. Peaks close to zero on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure. Breach of support would warn of a decline with a long-term target of 100. Breach of LT support would also be a bearish sign for the US\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16548,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/29\/be-data-driven-not-fear-driven\/","url_meta":{"origin":19004,"position":3},"title":"Be Data-driven not Fear-driven","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 29, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"A few months ago, markets feared a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula. Those fears have now largely dissipated but been replaced by fears of a massive trade war with China. There is always a small probability that our fears may be realized but most market fears are not. Unless\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19819,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/22\/sp-500-freight-and-manufacturing-slow-but-housing-lifts\/","url_meta":{"origin":19004,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Freight and manufacturing down but housing up","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 22, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"An engulfing candle on the weekly S&P 500 chart, together with a lower peak on the Trend Index, both warn of short-term selling pressure. Reversal below 3320 would suggest another test of 3200. But the index remains in a strong primary up-trend. A long-term (log-scale) chart shows how far the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5334,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/08\/27\/sp-500-and-nasdaq-bearish-divergence\/","url_meta":{"origin":19004,"position":5},"title":"S&#038;P 500 and Nasdaq bearish divergence","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 27, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 Index continues to test resistance at 1420. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Expect a test of the lower trend channel; reversal below 1380 would indicate a correction. Breakout above 1420, however, would signal an advance to the 2007 high at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19004","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19004"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19004\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19005,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19004\/revisions\/19005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19004"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19004"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19004"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}