{"id":18993,"date":"2019-09-28T01:31:36","date_gmt":"2019-09-28T01:31:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18993"},"modified":"2019-09-28T03:13:05","modified_gmt":"2019-09-28T03:13:05","slug":"gold-patience-is-required","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/28\/gold-patience-is-required\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold: Reasons for the up-trend"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold is in a medium- to long-term up-trend. Apart from record central bank purchases of bullion<\/a> and a weakening Chinese Yuan, real long-term interest rates are declining.<\/p>\n

The chart below highlights the inverse relationship between gold and real long-term interest rates (10-year Treasury yield minus CPI YoY%). When LT interest rates fall, gold prices surge.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

Treasury yields are falling because the Fed is cutting short-term interest rates but, more importantly, because QE has resumed. With the ECB driving bond yields into the negative, demand for Treasuries is surging.<\/p>\n

The Fed has also reversed course, expanding their balance sheet after the recent liquidity squeeze forced them to resume overnight repos<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Fed<\/p>\n

Our target for Gold is the 2012 high of $1800\/ounce.<\/p>\n

A weak rally strengthens the bearish argument for China’s Yuan, suggesting continuation of the primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"CNYUSD\"<\/p>\n

The Yuan is in a long-term down-trend against the Dollar that shows no signs of easing. Resolution of trade tensions is unlikely. Trade is merely the tip of the iceberg in a far wider clash between two global powers with conflicting ideologies which is likely to continue for decades.<\/p>\n

Gold is testing support at $1495\/ounce. Breach would warn of a correction.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

Silver is similarly testing support. Breach of $17.50\/ounce is likely and would warn of a correction, with Gold expected to follow.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

The All Ordinaries Gold Index is trending lower. Breach of 7200 would warn of another decline, with a short-term target of 6500.<\/p>\n

\"All<\/p>\n

Patience is required. Gold remains in a long-term up-trend and a correction may offer a sound entry point.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gold is in a medium- to long-term up-trend. Apart from record central bank purchases of bullion and a weakening Chinese Yuan, real long-term interest rates are declining. The chart below highlights the inverse relationship between gold and real long-term interest rates (10-year Treasury yield minus CPI YoY%). When LT interest rates fall, gold prices surge. … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Gold: Reasons for the up-trend”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,42,9,34,35],"tags":[70,166,678,854,2827,3204,3206],"class_list":["post-18993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-chinese-yuan","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-all-ordinaries-gold-index","tag-chinese-yuan","tag-cpi","tag-qe","tag-spot-gold","tag-spot-silver"],"yoast_head":"\nGold: Reasons for the up-trend - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold: Reasons for the up-trend - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gold is in a medium- to long-term up-trend. Apart from record central bank purchases of bullion and a weakening Chinese Yuan, real long-term interest rates are declining. The chart below highlights the inverse relationship between gold and real long-term interest rates (10-year Treasury yield minus CPI YoY%). 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4Wl","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":23196,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/12\/12\/real-interest-rates-and-the-dollar-belie-gold-weakness\/","url_meta":{"origin":18993,"position":0},"title":"Real interest rates and the Dollar belie Gold weakness","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 12, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The 10-year TIPS yield weakened to -0.96% on Thursday, compared to -0.94% last week. The Fed balance sheet is expanding slowly which would not exert much downward pressure on yields. But commercial bank holdings of Treasury and Agency securities are rising steeply. Negative Treasury yields increase demand for Gold as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":25325,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/04\/17\/gold-rallies-as-treasury-yields-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":18993,"position":1},"title":"Gold rallies as Treasury yields fall","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 17, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Spot Gold broke resistance at $1750\/ounce completing a small double bottom reversal with a target of $1825. Breakout above the trend channel would signal that a bottom is forming. But expect retracement to first test support at $1750. The rally is driven by falling Treasury yields, with the 10-year TIPS\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24635,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/20\/gold-and-another-treasury-sequel\/","url_meta":{"origin":18993,"position":2},"title":"Gold and another Treasury sequel","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 20, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Long-term Treasury yields are strengthening, with the 10-year reaching 1.73% on Friday. The real yield shrank to -0.58% (1.73 - 2.31), breaking resistance at -0.60%. Long-term yields may be rallying but the primary trend is downward. Fed asset purchases are accelerating. The Dollar Index is testing resistance at 92. Rising\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24908,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/31\/gold-and-the-treasury-yield\/","url_meta":{"origin":18993,"position":3},"title":"Gold and the Treasury yield","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 31, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Spot Gold is testing support at $1670\/ounce on the daily chart. Gold and the PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS ETF (LTPZ) usually track fairly closely but diverged in July\/August 2020 when Gold broke $2000\/ounce. Since then the gap has narrowed but warns that Gold may still fall further if real\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14505,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/11\/19\/gold-weakens-as-interest-rates-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":18993,"position":4},"title":"Gold weakens as interest rates rise","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 19, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Interest rates are climbing steeply as the market anticipates more inflationary policies under a Trump presidency. 10-Year Treasury yields broke through 2.0 percent and are testing resistance at 2.50. Penetration of the descending trendline would warn that the long-term primary down-trend is weakening, signaling a test of 3.0 percent. Breakout\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19036,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/10\/gold-low-interest-rates-and-volatile-currencies\/","url_meta":{"origin":18993,"position":5},"title":"Gold, low interest rates and volatile currencies","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 10, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold is in a primary up-trend, after ranging sideways for several years, fueled by low interest rates and volatile currency markets. The chart below highlights the inverse relationship between gold and 10-year Treasury yields. When LT interest rates fall, the gold price surges. At present, 10-year Treasury yields are close\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18993","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18993"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18993\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18997,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18993\/revisions\/18997"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18993"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18993"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18993"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}