{"id":18964,"date":"2019-09-21T01:25:47","date_gmt":"2019-09-21T01:25:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18964"},"modified":"2019-09-28T04:01:33","modified_gmt":"2019-09-28T04:01:33","slug":"the-canary-in-the-coal-mine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/21\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\/","title":{"rendered":"The canary in the coal mine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bellwether transport stock Fedex (FDX) is testing long-term support at 150. Peaks close to zero on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure. Breach of support would warn of a decline with a long-term target of 100.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-20-fdx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fedex\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Breach of LT support would also be a bearish sign for the US economy, warning that economic activity is weakening.<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is testing resistance at 3000. Expect stubborn resistance followed by a test of support at 2800. Breach of 2800 would flag a reversal with a target of 2400.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-20-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Dow Jones &#8211; UBS Commodity Index rallied strongly with the Saudi oil price shock but finished the week with a strong <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/technical\/open-close_reversal.php\">bearish reversal signal<\/a>. Expect another test of support at 76. Breach would signal a (primary) decline. We maintain our bearish long-term outlook for commodities.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-20-dubs.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"DJ-UBS Commodities Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We have reduced our equity exposure to 36% of (International Growth) portfolio value because of our bearish outlook on the global economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bellwether transport stock Fedex (FDX) is testing long-term support at 150. Peaks close to zero on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure. Breach of support would warn of a decline with a long-term target of 100. Breach of LT support would also be a bearish sign for the US economy, warning that economic activity &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/21\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The canary in the coal mine&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43,3761,57,34],"tags":[4039,1362,3010],"class_list":["post-18964","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-dj-ubs-commodities-index","tag-fedex","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The canary in the coal mine - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The canary in the coal mine - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bellwether transport stock Fedex (FDX) is testing long-term support at 150. Peaks close to zero on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure. Breach of support would warn of a decline with a long-term target of 100. Breach of LT support would also be a bearish sign for the US economy, warning that economic activity &hellip; Continue reading &quot;The canary in the coal mine&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/21\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-09-21T01:25:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-09-28T04:01:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-20-fdx.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/21\\\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/21\\\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"The canary in the coal mine\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-09-21T01:25:47+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-09-28T04:01:33+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/21\\\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":154,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/21\\\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-09-20-fdx.png\",\"keywords\":[\"DJ-UBS Commodities index\",\"Fedex\",\"S&amp;P 500\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Commodities\",\"GDP and Activity\",\"Stock Markets\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/21\\\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/21\\\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\\\/\",\"name\":\"The canary in the coal mine - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/21\\\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/21\\\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-09-20-fdx.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-09-21T01:25:47+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-09-28T04:01:33+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/21\\\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/21\\\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/21\\\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-09-20-fdx.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-09-20-fdx.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/21\\\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The canary in the coal mine\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4VS","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":19004,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/28\/fedex-breaks-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":18964,"position":0},"title":"Fedex breaks support","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 28, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Bellwether transport stock Fedex (FDX) broke long-term support at 150, warning of a decline with a long-term target of 100. A down-trend on Fedex has bearish implications for the broader economy, signaling that activity is declining. We have been here before: November 2007 - Fedex Warns of Worse to Come.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4011,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/01\/bearish-divergence-for-us-indices\/","url_meta":{"origin":18964,"position":1},"title":"Bearish divergence for US indices","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 1, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure on the S&P 500 index. Expect a correction to test support at 1350\/1370 unless we see 21-day Twiggs Money Flow recovering above 30%. * Target calculation: 1300 + (1300 - 1150) = 1450 The Nasdaq 100 index encountered\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5334,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/08\/27\/sp-500-and-nasdaq-bearish-divergence\/","url_meta":{"origin":18964,"position":2},"title":"S&#038;P 500 and Nasdaq bearish divergence","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 27, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 Index continues to test resistance at 1420. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Expect a test of the lower trend channel; reversal below 1380 would indicate a correction. Breakout above 1420, however, would signal an advance to the 2007 high at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17528,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/12\/01\/east-to-west\/","url_meta":{"origin":18964,"position":3},"title":"East to West","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 1, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 put in a strong blue candle this week but one swallow doesn't make a summer. Follow-through above 2800 would signal a test of 2950. Small bullish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow looks promising but is secondary in nature and may not alter the larger trend. The Nasdaq\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5638,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/02\/us-fedex-warns-of-declining-activity-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":18964,"position":4},"title":"US: Buying pressure easing","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 2, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The September Quarter has ended, bonuses have been determined, and buying pressure is now likely to ease. The S&P 500 is testing resistance after breaking support at 1450. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Respect of 1450 is likely and would indicate a test of 1400.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5560,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/24\/us-fedex-warns-of-declining-activity\/","url_meta":{"origin":18964,"position":5},"title":"US: Fedex warns of declining activity","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 24, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Bellwether transport stock Fedex fell hard in the last week, testing support at $84. Breakout would confirm the primary down-trend signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero. A down-trend on Fedex would warn of slowing activity in the broader economy. A daily chart of the S&P 500 index shows narrow\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18964","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18964"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18964\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19003,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18964\/revisions\/19003"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18964"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18964"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18964"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}