{"id":18947,"date":"2019-09-19T08:42:45","date_gmt":"2019-09-19T08:42:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18947"},"modified":"2019-09-19T08:44:51","modified_gmt":"2019-09-19T08:44:51","slug":"leading-index-of-employment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/19\/leading-index-of-employment\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia: Leading Index of Employment in 16th month of decline"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business released their Monthly Leading Indicator of Employment for September 2019, recording its 16th straight month of decline.<\/p>\n

Hat tip to Macrobusiness, this is a peach of an indicator, predicting Australia’s economic performance.<\/p>\n

I have added % retracement in the ASX 200 to the graph below. Each of the significant past troughs in the Leading Index coincides with a drawdown of more than 20% in the ASX 200.<\/p>\n

\"Leading<\/p>\n

Is the current fall in the Leading Index a false alarm, as in the 2005\/2006 raging commodities bull market, or are we in for another retracement?<\/p>\n

\"Leading<\/p>\n

My money is on the retracement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business released their Monthly Leading Indicator of Employment for September 2019, recording its 16th straight month of decline. Hat tip to Macrobusiness, this is a peach of an indicator, predicting Australia’s economic performance. I have added % retracement in the ASX 200 to the graph below. Each … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Australia: Leading Index of Employment in 16th month of decline”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,46,3761],"tags":[251,290,1227,4135,2948],"class_list":["post-18947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","tag-asx-200","tag-australia","tag-employment","tag-leading-indicator","tag-retracement"],"yoast_head":"\nAustralia: Leading Index of Employment in 16th month of decline - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australia: Leading Index of Employment in 16th month of decline - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business released their Monthly Leading Indicator of Employment for September 2019, recording its 16th straight month of decline. Hat tip to Macrobusiness, this is a peach of an indicator, predicting Australia’s economic performance. I have added % retracement in the ASX 200 to the graph below. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4VB","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":63649,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/19\/asx-ripe-for-a-breakout\/","url_meta":{"origin":18947,"position":0},"title":"ASX Ripe for a Breakout","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 19, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Australian unemployment fell to 4.1% in January. The S&P Global Composite PMI is at its highest level in more than 4 years. The ASX 200 index and its two biggest sector indices are all testing resistance at their previous highs. Australian unemployment fell to 4.1% in January, indicating\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: Unemployment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-19-aus-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-19-aus-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-19-aus-u3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-19-aus-u3.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56055,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/30\/asx-200-stalls-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":18947,"position":1},"title":"ASX 200 stalls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 30, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 advance is stalling as uncertainty over US financial markets grows and resources demand from China fades. Employment is edging lower but the Leading Indicator warns of a sharp fall ahead that could impact on the large Financials sector. ASX 200 The ASX 200 is retracing to test\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-29-xjo2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-29-xjo2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-29-xjo2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":50190,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/21\/asx-200-rallies-as-unemployment-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":18947,"position":2},"title":"ASX 200 rallies as unemployment falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 21, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 recovered above 7700 yesterday, the higher Trend Index trough indicating strong buying pressure. Follow-through above 7800 would confirm a fresh advance, with a target of 8000. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.7% in February, although the Trend measure remains steady at 3.8%. Monthly hours worked jumped to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-20-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-20-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-20-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19450,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/15\/asx-200-diverges-from-fundamentals\/","url_meta":{"origin":18947,"position":3},"title":"ASX 200 diverges from fundamentals","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 15, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Seasonally adjusted labour force estimates show a decline in October 2019: Employment decreased by 19,000 to 12,919,200 people (full-time -10,300 and part-time -8,700). Unemployment rate increased by 0.1 pts to 5.3%. Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased by 2.8 million hours to 1,783.9 million hours. The leading indicator of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61087,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/20\/asx-200-falls-as-outlook-brightens\/","url_meta":{"origin":18947,"position":4},"title":"ASX 200 falls as outlook brightens","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 20, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The six-month annualized growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index rose to a more than two-year high, indicating a \"gradual recovery rather than a sudden surge,\" according to Matthew Hassan at Westpac. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in January 2025, but the trend remained at 4.0%.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58057,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/03\/reaction-to-iran-israel-tensions-still-muted\/","url_meta":{"origin":18947,"position":5},"title":"Reaction to Iran-Israel tensions still muted","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 3, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Stocks are retracing to test support, but financial market conditions remain accommodative, and another large-cap rally is likely. Treasuries, Gold, and the Dollar are all likely to rise as tensions escalate in the Middle East. Stocks The S&P 500 continues to test support between 5670 and 5700, but Trend Index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Iran Attacks Israel","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-02-israel-598x491.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-02-israel-598x491.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-02-israel-598x491.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18947","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18947"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18947\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18951,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18947\/revisions\/18951"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18947"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18947"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18947"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}