{"id":18935,"date":"2019-09-19T03:38:09","date_gmt":"2019-09-19T03:38:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18935"},"modified":"2019-09-19T03:43:16","modified_gmt":"2019-09-19T03:43:16","slug":"robert-shillers-warning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/19\/robert-shillers-warning\/","title":{"rendered":"Robert Shiller’s warning"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller warns<\/a> that cracks are once again surfacing in the US housing market.<\/p>\n

“We have had a strong housing market for pretty much all the time since 2012. Just after the financial crisis, the housing market didn’t recover, maybe because banking was in disarray and people were still expecting declines after the event. After 2012, it started going up at more than 10 per cent a year nationwide in the US, and has been slowing down since.”<\/p>\n

Shiller says that a worrying pattern emerging in house prices is reminiscent of the property market in the run-up to the Great Recession.<\/p>\n

The bursting of the US housing bubble in 2006-07 was a key trigger of the financial crisis…… “I have seen this happen before, we’re like back in 2005 again when the rate of increase in home prices was slowing down a lot but still going up.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"Case<\/p>\n

Growth in the Case Shiller National Home Price Index is clearly weakening but we need to be careful of confirmation bias where we “cherry-pick” negative news to reinforce a bearish outlook. I would take the present situation as an “amber” warning and only a drop below zero (when house prices fall) as a red flag.<\/p>\n

Shiller has an enviable reputation for predicting recessions, having warned of the Dotcom bubble in tech stocks and the housing bubble ahead of the 2008 global financial crisis. He is correct that narratives (beliefs) can become self-fulfilling prophecies. If the dominant view is that the economy will contract, then it probably will — as corporations stop investing in new capacity and banks restrict lending. Geo-political tensions — US\/China, UK\/EU Brexit, and Iran\/Saudi Arabia — combined with massive uncertainty in global trade and oil markets, could quickly snowball into a full-blown recession.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller warns that cracks are once again surfacing in the US housing market. “We have had a strong housing market for pretty much all the time since 2012. Just after the financial crisis, the housing market didn’t recover, maybe because banking was in disarray and people were still expecting declines after … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Robert Shiller’s warning”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3761,10,29,34],"tags":[4133,4134,2880,2979],"class_list":["post-18935","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gdp-and-activity","category-housing-economy","category-the-big-picture","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-case-shiller-national-home-price-index","tag-geo-political-tensions","tag-recession","tag-robert-shiller"],"yoast_head":"\nRobert Shiller's warning - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Robert Shiller's warning - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller warns that cracks are once again surfacing in the US housing market. “We have had a strong housing market for pretty much all the time since 2012. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4Vp","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":43458,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/16\/eric-basmajian-predicts-recession-by-q1-next-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":18935,"position":0},"title":"Eric Basmajian predicts recession by Q1 next year","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 16, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Interview with Eric Basmajian of EPB Research: https:\/\/youtu.be\/ztfUeeGwq0k Eric breaks down the economy into four\u00a0 \"buckets\" that tend to experience a recession in a set sequence, with considerable lags between the four: Leading Items that are highly sensitive to interest rates, and where there is a limited or loose contractual\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Leading Sectors","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-15-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-15-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-15-leading.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-15-leading.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4050,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/11\/robert-shiller-financial-capitalism-is-taking-over-the-world\/","url_meta":{"origin":18935,"position":1},"title":"Robert Shiller: Financial capitalism "Taking over the world"","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 11, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Yale professor Robert Shiller discusses his book \"Finance and the Good Society\". [gigya width=\"576\" height=\"324\" allowFullScreen=\"true\" src=\"http:\/\/d.yimg.com\/nl\/techticker\/site\/player.swf\" type=\"application\/x-shockwave-flash\" flashvars=\"vid=28896615&\"]","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":28543,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/10\/26\/case-shiller-reports-19-8-annual-gain-in-august\/","url_meta":{"origin":18935,"position":2},"title":"Case-Shiller reports 19.8% annual gain","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 26, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Housing continues to rise, with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reporting a 19.8% annual gain in August (same as the previous month). The 20-City Composite posted a 19.7% year-over-year gain (20.0% in the previous month). CPI Shelter, which comprises almost one-third of total CPI, came\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Housing"","block_context":{"text":"Housing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/housing-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":27689,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/09\/01\/housing-inflation-spike-coming\/","url_meta":{"origin":18935,"position":3},"title":"Housing inflation spike coming","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 1, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Earlier in the week, we compared shelter, which comprises one-third of the total consumer price index (CPI) to the Case-Shiller home price index. The shelter component of CPI, climbed to 3.34% for the year ending July and at a 4.8% annualized rate in the most recent six months (Jan-July). Case-Shiller\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Housing"","block_context":{"text":"Housing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/housing-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11103,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/13\/robert-shiller-maintains-exposure-to-stocks-wsj\/","url_meta":{"origin":18935,"position":4},"title":"Robert Shiller maintains exposure to stocks | WSJ","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 13, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Jason Zweig writes: Many analysts have warned lately that Prof. Shiller\u2019s long-term stock-pricing indicator [CAPE] is dangerously high by historical standards.....If only things were that simple, Prof. Shiller says. \u201cThe market is supposed to estimate the value of earnings,\u201d he explains, \u201cbut the value of the earnings depends on people\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":969,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/09\/24\/the-great-debt-scare-robert-j-shiller-project-syndicate\/","url_meta":{"origin":18935,"position":5},"title":"The Great Debt Scare – Robert J. Shiller – Project Syndicate","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 24, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The Consumer Sentiment Survey of Americans, created by George Katona at the University of Michigan in the early 1950\u2019s, and known today as the Thomson-Reuters University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, has included a remarkable question about the reasonably long-term future, five years hence, and asks about visceral fears concerning\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "US & Canada"","block_context":{"text":"US & Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18935","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18935"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18935\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18940,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18935\/revisions\/18940"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18935"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18935"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18935"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}