{"id":18924,"date":"2019-09-18T01:38:27","date_gmt":"2019-09-18T01:38:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18924"},"modified":"2019-09-18T01:38:27","modified_gmt":"2019-09-18T01:38:27","slug":"sahm-rule-sweden-tips-into-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/18\/sahm-rule-sweden-tips-into-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"Sahm Rule: Sweden tips into recession"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-17-sweden.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sweden: Sahm rule\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>What is the Sahm Recession Rule?<\/h2>\n<p>Recessions are notoriously difficult to measure (even the NBER occasionally gets it wrong) and an official declaration of a recession may be lagged by more than 6 months. Economist Claudia Sahm uses the following rule as a timely indicator of recessions:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Claudia_Sahm\/status\/1129200066869243905\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-17-sahm-rule.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sahm Rule\" \/><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-17-sahm-rule2.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sahm Rule\" \/><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-17-sahm-graph.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sahm Rule Graph\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is the Sahm Recession Rule? Recessions are notoriously difficult to measure (even the NBER occasionally gets it wrong) and an official declaration of a recession may be lagged by more than 6 months. Economist Claudia Sahm uses the following rule as a timely indicator of recessions:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,3761,33],"tags":[2880,4126,3311,3531],"class_list":["post-18924","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","tag-recession","tag-sahm-rule","tag-sweden","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Sahm Rule: Sweden tips into recession - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sahm Rule: Sweden tips into recession - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What is the Sahm Recession Rule? Recessions are notoriously difficult to measure (even the NBER occasionally gets it wrong) and an official declaration of a recession may be lagged by more than 6 months. Economist Claudia Sahm uses the following rule as a timely indicator of recessions:\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/18\/sahm-rule-sweden-tips-into-recession\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-09-18T01:38:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-17-sweden.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/18\\\/sahm-rule-sweden-tips-into-recession\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/18\\\/sahm-rule-sweden-tips-into-recession\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Sahm Rule: Sweden tips into recession\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-09-18T01:38:27+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/18\\\/sahm-rule-sweden-tips-into-recession\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":52,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/18\\\/sahm-rule-sweden-tips-into-recession\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-09-17-sweden.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Recession\",\"Sahm Rule\",\"Sweden\",\"Unemployment\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment\",\"GDP and Activity\",\"UK &amp; Europe\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/18\\\/sahm-rule-sweden-tips-into-recession\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/18\\\/sahm-rule-sweden-tips-into-recession\\\/\",\"name\":\"Sahm Rule: Sweden tips into recession - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/18\\\/sahm-rule-sweden-tips-into-recession\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/18\\\/sahm-rule-sweden-tips-into-recession\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-09-17-sweden.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-09-18T01:38:27+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/18\\\/sahm-rule-sweden-tips-into-recession\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/18\\\/sahm-rule-sweden-tips-into-recession\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/18\\\/sahm-rule-sweden-tips-into-recession\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-09-17-sweden.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-09-17-sweden.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/18\\\/sahm-rule-sweden-tips-into-recession\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Sahm Rule: Sweden tips into recession\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Economist Claudia Sahm devised the Sahm Rule, using changes in unemployment levels, as a more timely predictor of recessions. But the signal\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":56881,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/23\/profit-taking-and-the-sahm-rule-ahead-of-jackson-hole\/","url_meta":{"origin":18924,"position":1},"title":"Profit-taking and the Sahm Rule ahead of Jackson Hole","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 23, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The stocks and gold retracement reflects profit-taking ahead of Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech. At this stage, we expect no surprises. 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The increased prospect of rate cuts from the Fed excited investors. The opposite of what one would expect from a sign that the economy is slowing. Markets are focused on the immediate impact of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Non-Farm Employment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-04-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-04-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-04-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56399,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/06\/ism-services-pmi-signals-return-to-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":18924,"position":4},"title":"ISM Services PMI signals return to growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 6, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Almost overlooked in the deluge of headlines about a \"Black Monday\" crash, and fears of recession, was the ISM Services Report. ISM Services Services is by far the largest sector in the economy, employing 136.9 million, or 86.3%, out of a total non-farm payroll of 158.7 million. The ISM Services\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ISM Services PMI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-05-ism-services.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-05-ism-services.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-05-ism-services.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56301,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/03\/death-of-the-carry-trade\/","url_meta":{"origin":18924,"position":5},"title":"Death of the Yen carry trade","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 3, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Markets seem convinced that the recent stock sell-off in the US is due to growth concerns -- after a weak labor report. We think they are mistaken. The real cause of the sell-off is the unwinding Yen carry trade. Hedge funds have been making a killing on the Yen carry\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"USD\/Japanese Yen","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-02-jpy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-02-jpy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-02-jpy.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18924","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18924"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18924\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18926,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18924\/revisions\/18926"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18924"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18924"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18924"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}