{"id":18878,"date":"2019-09-14T01:13:06","date_gmt":"2019-09-14T01:13:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18878"},"modified":"2019-09-14T01:16:55","modified_gmt":"2019-09-14T01:16:55","slug":"asx-iron-ore-expected-to-decline-to-55-per-ton-in-next-five-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/14\/asx-iron-ore-expected-to-decline-to-55-per-ton-in-next-five-years\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX: Iron Ore expected to decline to $55 per ton in next five years"},"content":{"rendered":"

Iron ore found short-term support at $90 per ton but this is unlikely to hold and our medium-term target is $80 per ton.<\/p>\n

\"Iron<\/p>\n

Bloomberg<\/a> published an interesting outlook on iron ore this week from Ed Morse, Global Head of Commodities Research at Citigroup:<\/p>\n

\u201cSteel demand is no longer going to be what it was,\u201d Morse said in an interview. \u201cNo combination of India, Brazil and any other emerging-market country, no matter how big, is going to replace what China did alone,\u201d he said, referring to spike in demand from the nation\u2019s \u201cfixed-asset investment extravaganza,\u201d between the 1990s to 2010.<\/p>\n

….Benchmark prices will end this year at the mid-$90s a ton, before falling to $75 at the end of 2020, he said. Five years out, they are seen at $55 a ton \u2014 a level that\u2019s still well above current costs of production at the largest miners.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index found support at 4100 but the outlook is increasingly bearish. Breach of 4100 would complete a head and shoulders<\/a> reversal with a target of 3400.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Given the importance of mining exports to the Australian economy, a fall in iron ore prices would be likely to increase downward pressure on the Aussie Dollar.<\/p>\n

The Financial sector, on the other hand, is looking bullish at present, with Trend Index troughs above zero indicating buying pressure, in response to improved auction clearance rates. But housing woes are far from over and we expect them to remain a drag on growth for the next three to five years.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

The ASX 200 continues to edge upwards, heading for another test of resistance at its 2007 high of 6800. Hanging man<\/a> candles over the last three weeks warn of profit-taking, which is slowing the rally’s progress. Expect stubborn resistance at 6800. Reversal below 6400 would warn of a decline to test primary support at 5400.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

We increased exposure<\/a> to Australian equities, to 25% of portfolio value, this week but with an increased focus on defensive stocks, because of our bearish outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Iron ore found short-term support at $90 per ton but this is unlikely to hold and our medium-term target is $80 per ton. Bloomberg published an interesting outlook on iron ore this week from Ed Morse, Global Head of Commodities Research at Citigroup: \u201cSteel demand is no longer going to be what it was,\u201d Morse … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “ASX: Iron Ore expected to decline to $55 per ton in next five years”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,43,57],"tags":[251,4003,262,1902],"class_list":["post-18878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-200-financials","tag-asx-300-metals-mining","tag-iron-ore"],"yoast_head":"\nASX: Iron Ore expected to decline to $55 per ton in next five years - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX: Iron Ore expected to decline to $55 per ton in next five years - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Iron ore found short-term support at $90 per ton but this is unlikely to hold and our medium-term target is $80 per ton. 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Support is unlikely to hold and breach would offer a medium-term target of $80 per ton. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index found support at 4100 but the rally is weak. Breach of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Aussie dollar"","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15602,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/14\/asx-buoyant-as-iron-rallies\/","url_meta":{"origin":18878,"position":1},"title":"ASX buoyant as iron rallies","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 14, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore broke resistance at $60 and is headed for a test of $70 per ton. This is a strong rally but it does not signal the end of the bear market. Only when the rally ends and there is another test of primary support at $53 will we be\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":23619,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/01\/10\/asx-iron-ore-soars-but-bonds-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":18878,"position":2},"title":"ASX: Iron ore soars but bonds fall","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 10, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore soared to a new high of $169.50\/metric ton, with an accelerating up-trend threatening to end in a blow-off. Mining.com attributes the recent rise to shrinking shipments from Brazil plus robust steel demand: In December, the steelmaking raw material hit its highest level since September 2011 after gaining nearly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19023,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/05\/asx-200-hits-a-brick-wall\/","url_meta":{"origin":18878,"position":3},"title":"ASX 200 hits a brick wall","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 5, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 retreated sharply from stubborn resistance at the 2007 high of 6800, like hitting a brick wall. Breach of support at 6400, after a lower high, is now more likely and would offer a target of 5400. Iron ore continues to test short-term support at $90. Breach is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18998,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/28\/asx-200-stubborn-resistance\/","url_meta":{"origin":18878,"position":4},"title":"ASX 200: Stubborn resistance","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 28, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore is headed for another test of short-term support at $90. Breach would signal another decline, with a medium-term target of $80 per ton. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index retreated this week and is expected to test long-term support at 4100. Breach would complete a head and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15629,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/21\/asx-200-its-down-to-iron-ore\/","url_meta":{"origin":18878,"position":5},"title":"ASX 200: It’s down to iron ore","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 21, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore encountered resistance at $70 per ton. Another test of primary support at $53 is likely. But a failed down-swing would be a bullish sign. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining displays a similar pattern, retreating below 3000 after testing 3050. A failed down-swing that ends above 2750 would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18878","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18878"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18878\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18882,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18878\/revisions\/18882"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18878"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}