{"id":18853,"date":"2019-09-10T07:23:28","date_gmt":"2019-09-10T07:23:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18853"},"modified":"2019-09-10T07:24:55","modified_gmt":"2019-09-10T07:24:55","slug":"china-exports-fall-despite-weaker-yuan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/china-exports-fall-despite-weaker-yuan\/","title":{"rendered":"China: Exports fall despite weaker Yuan"},"content":{"rendered":"

Reuters<\/a> says that export orders are falling and the contraction is expected to worsen in coming months:<\/p>\n

Beijing is widely expected to announce more support measures in coming weeks to avert the risk of a sharper economic slowdown as the United States ratchets up trade pressure……<\/p>\n

On Friday, the central bank cut banks\u2019 reserve requirements (RRR) for a seventh time since early 2018 to free up more funds for lending, days after a cabinet meeting signaled that more policy loosening may be imminent.<\/p>\n

August exports fell 1% from a year earlier, the biggest fall since June, when it fell 1.3%, customs data showed on Sunday. Analysts had expected a 2.0% rise in a Reuters poll after July\u2019s 3.3% gain.<\/p>\n

That’s despite analyst expectations that a falling yuan would offset some cost pressure and looming tariffs may have prompted some Chinese exporters to bring forward or \u201cfront-load\u201d U.S.-bound shipments into August, a trend seen earlier in the trade dispute…..<\/p>\n

Among its major trade partners, China\u2019s August exports to the United States fell 16% year-on-year<\/strong>, slowing sharply from a decline of 6.5% in July. Imports from America slumped 22.4%.<\/p>\n

Many analysts expect export growth to slow further in coming months, as evidenced by worsening export orders in both official and private factory surveys. More U.S. tariff measures will take effect on Oct. 1 and Dec. 15.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Banks are suffering a liquidity squeeze:<\/p>\n

The PBoC says the new cuts will release RMB 900 billion of liquidity. That’s more than the RMB 800 billion and RMB 280 billion released by the January and May cuts, respectively. (Trivium China<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Consumer confidence is ebbing.<\/p>\n

\"Google<\/a><\/p>\n

China’s response to tariffs has annoyed the Trump administration, making prospects of a trade deal even more remote.<\/p>\n

China’s response to U.S. trade actions appears to reflect a cynicism about the efficacy of democracy. Beijing’s strategy appears calibrated to exploit the fact that the American people elect the head of their government, by attempting to influence how the American people will vote. In effect, it seems to be gambling on its ability to turn American democracy against itself.<\/p>\n

At the center of China’s responses are the tit-for-tat tariffs intended to hurt American farmers, a constituency that tends to support President Donald Trump and to live in crucial swing states. These tariffs appear designed to deliver political pain in the U.S., not to produce any economic benefit for China. China’s other political meddling, as Vice President Mike Pence recently laid out, includes attempts at interference in the 2018 U.S. midterm elections. Recent targets of Chinese Communist Party influence campaigns also include state and local governments, Congress, academia, think tanks, and the business community. (The Atlantic<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

A massive increase in stimulus is the likely eventual outcome, focused on housing and infrastructure. That would fuel demand for raw materials such as iron and steel.<\/p>\n

If not, expect a sharp drop in imports to impact on China’s major trading partners.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reuters says that export orders are falling and the contraction is expected to worsen in coming months: Beijing is widely expected to announce more support measures in coming weeks to avert the risk of a sharper economic slowdown as the United States ratchets up trade pressure…… On Friday, the central bank cut banks\u2019 reserve requirements … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “China: Exports fall despite weaker Yuan”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,41,3761,3778],"tags":[301,4113,663,1328,3782],"class_list":["post-18853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-china-hk","category-gdp-and-activity","category-international-trade","tag-auto-sales","tag-bank-reserve-ratios","tag-china","tag-exports","tag-tariffs"],"yoast_head":"\nChina: Exports fall despite weaker Yuan - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China: Exports fall despite weaker Yuan - 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China is unlikely to abandon its investment-led growth model that has delivered much progress in the past 25 years. However, China's model is damaging the global economy and monetary system. China's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China Consumption & Investment Compared to other Developed Economies","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-24-china-cons-inv.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-24-china-cons-inv.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-24-china-cons-inv.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":42439,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/17\/china-recovery-falters\/","url_meta":{"origin":18853,"position":1},"title":"China recovery falters","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 17, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"China's exports plunged 7.5% year-on-year in May.... https:\/\/youtu.be\/sjegqSfcdWE Westpac tell a similar story: Reversing our perspective and moving a month forward in time to May, China\u2019s trade surplus narrowed to US$65.8bn as exports weakened and imports rose. Exports to the US have declined on a year ago basis every month\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China Fixed Asset Investment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-15-china-fai_595x571.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-15-china-fai_595x571.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-15-china-fai_595x571.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13047,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/20\/china-trade-food-lng-coal-to-gain-ground-as-iron-ore-exports-slip-afr-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":18853,"position":2},"title":"China trade: Food, LNG, coal to gain ground as iron ore exports slip | afr.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 20, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Ben Potter at AFR: Iron ore sales to China are set to fall as a share of total two-way trade, while natural gas, food and even coal exports will become more important, the paper, China's Evolving Demand for Commodities, finds. A decline in Chinese crude steel production means iron\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61889,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/03\/rising-recession-risk-threatens-bond-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":18853,"position":3},"title":"Rising recession risk threatens bond market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 3, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary Trade talks with China have stalled President Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs will increase from 25% to 50% Input costs for US manufacturers are expected to soar Spending is expected to slow after the introduction of tariffs in April The economic outlook is clouded with uncertainty, and the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-02-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-02-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-02-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":23815,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/01\/23\/asx-edges-higher\/","url_meta":{"origin":18853,"position":4},"title":"ASX faces iron ore risk","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 23, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore reached $170\/metric ton as record steel production in China lifted prices. But breach of the steep trendline would warn of a sharp correction (the steeper the trend, the harder they fall). Australian bulk exports remain strong, with December bulk exports down 3% from a record high in December\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":45315,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/10\/stocks-fall-as-crude-plunges-and-chinas-economy-slows\/","url_meta":{"origin":18853,"position":5},"title":"Stocks fall as Crude plunges and China’s economy slows","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 10, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The 10-year Treasury yield found support at 4.5%, suggesting another test of resistance at 5.0%. Follow-through above 4.75% would confirm. The S&P 500 retreated from resistance at 4400, with a bearish engulfing candle indicating selling pressure. The Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) retreated below former primary support at 170.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-09-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-09-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-09-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18853","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18853"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18853\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18858,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18853\/revisions\/18858"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}