{"id":18847,"date":"2019-09-10T00:08:27","date_gmt":"2019-09-10T00:08:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18847"},"modified":"2019-09-10T04:39:28","modified_gmt":"2019-09-10T04:39:28","slug":"no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll\/","title":{"rendered":"Time to be defensive"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bob Doll at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nuveen.com\/bob-doll-weekly-commentary\">Nuveen<\/a> says he does not expect a recession (for the next few quarters) but remains neutral towards stocks:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Although stock prices have advanced over the last couple of weeks, investors remain focused on downside economic and policy risks and are increasingly concerned about a possible recession. The latest manufacturing readings hurt economic sentiment, while trade issues, turmoil in Hong Kong, the increasing likelihood of a messy, no-deal Brexit and a downturn in European growth are increasing worries.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The Institute for Supply Management <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org\/ismreport\/mfgrob.cfm\">August Report<\/a> points to an economic slow-down, with the Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index (PMI) falling to 49.1 percent, from 51.2 percent in July. The New Orders Index also declined, to 47.2 percent from 50.8 percent in July. Readings below 50 indicate contraction.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;&#8230;The 2020 U.S. elections linger in the backdrop, offering potential to produce either a dramatic shift in economic policy should the Democrats retake the White House, or continued policy uncertainty should President Trump win reelection.<\/p>\n<p>Against this backdrop, investors are struggling to position their portfolios. Consensus appears to say that it is time to turn more defensive, but U.S. Treasuries and other government bond yields appear to offer little if any value. Indeed, government bond markets are pricing in a high likelihood of a recession and a prolonged period of sluggish growth. At the same time, equity markets have been range bound over the last several months (and, by some measures, since the start of 2018) and are providing unclear signals.<\/p>\n<p>In our view, the preponderance of the evidence suggests that growth will remain sluggish but a recession will be avoided, at least for the next few quarters. In other words, we think the signals coming from the equity markets are more accurate than those coming from government bond markets. Nevertheless, we continue to have a broadly neutral view toward stocks, and think investors should remain selective, focusing on such themes as companies that offer compelling value and those that have the ability to put relatively high levels of free cash flow to work.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The wild card is the impact that high levels of uncertainty may have on business investment and employment.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/crescatkevin\/status\/1171157684806025216\/photo\/1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-10-google-recession.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Google Searches for Recession\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This is a time to be defensive.<\/p>\n<p>Bonds, traditional dividend-paying blue chips, and growth stocks all appear over-priced at current levels. Small caps are high risk in the current volatile environment and we are focused on large cap stocks with strong cash flows and defensible market position in non-cyclical industries. Some cyclical sectors may present value but investors need to be selective because of vulnerability to a potential down-turn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bob Doll at Nuveen says he does not expect a recession (for the next few quarters) but remains neutral towards stocks: &#8220;Although stock prices have advanced over the last couple of weeks, investors remain focused on downside economic and policy risks and are increasingly concerned about a possible recession. The latest manufacturing readings hurt economic &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Time to be defensive&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,3761,57,34],"tags":[4108,455,476,4106,985,1915,4107,2522,2682,4109,3150],"class_list":["post-18847","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-blue-chips","tag-bob-doll","tag-bonds-2","tag-cyclicals","tag-defensive-stocks","tag-ism","tag-large-caps","tag-nuveen","tag-pmi","tag-search-poularity-recession","tag-small-caps"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Time to be defensive - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Time to be defensive - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bob Doll at Nuveen says he does not expect a recession (for the next few quarters) but remains neutral towards stocks: &#8220;Although stock prices have advanced over the last couple of weeks, investors remain focused on downside economic and policy risks and are increasingly concerned about a possible recession. The latest manufacturing readings hurt economic &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Time to be defensive&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-09-10T00:08:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-09-10T04:39:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-10-google-recession.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Time to be defensive\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-09-10T00:08:27+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-09-10T04:39:28+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll\/\"},\"wordCount\":426,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-10-google-recession.png\",\"keywords\":[\"blue chips\",\"Bob Doll\",\"bonds\",\"Cyclicals\",\"Defensive stocks\",\"ISM\",\"large caps\",\"Nuveen\",\"PMI\",\"search poularity: \\\"recession\\\"\",\"small caps\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment\",\"GDP and Activity\",\"Stock Markets\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll\/\",\"name\":\"Time to be defensive - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-10-google-recession.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-09-10T00:08:27+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-09-10T04:39:28+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-10-google-recession.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-09-10-google-recession.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Time to be defensive\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4TZ","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":14360,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/weekly-investment-commentary-from-bob-doll-nuveen\/","url_meta":{"origin":18847,"position":0},"title":"Weekly Investment Commentary from Bob Doll | Nuveen","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 17, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Bob Doll: Equities may struggle until corporate earnings improve. For the past 18 months, equities have been able to make modest gains despite declining corporate profits. This has largely been due to highly accommodative monetary policy and central banks\u2019 willingness to engage in new easing measures. Additionally, investors have\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12935,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/09\/weekly-investment-commentary-from-bob-doll-nuveen-investments\/","url_meta":{"origin":18847,"position":1},"title":"Bob Doll: It May Take Better News for the Rally to Continue","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 9, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Bob Doll at Nuveen Investments: It May Take Better News for the Rally to Continue Financial markets appear to be normalizing in recent weeks after the risk asset rout that started the year. We would caution, however, that market improvements have come about because the news has become less\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14399,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/24\/bob-dolls-bullet-points\/","url_meta":{"origin":18847,"position":2},"title":"Bob Doll&#8217;s bullet points","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 24, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Bob Doll's weekly commentary for Nuveen Investments: Third-quarter earnings started strong. Should this persist, it may mark the end of the earnings recession. It looks likely that Hillary Clinton will win the presidency while the House remains in GOP hands. Equity markets face near-term pressures, but the economic and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14952,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/14\/equities-could-see-a-setback-but-this-bull-market-isnt-over-bob-doll\/","url_meta":{"origin":18847,"position":3},"title":"Equities Could See a Setback, But This Bull Market Isn\u2019t Over | Bob Doll","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 14, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Sensible view from Bob Doll at Nuveen: ....Given evidence of stronger economic growth, we could see the Fed become slightly more aggressive about its rate policies, but probably not to the point that it would derail the equity bull market. On balance, we think the risks are skewed to the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15617,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/21\/weekly-top-themes-from-bob-doll-nuveen\/","url_meta":{"origin":18847,"position":4},"title":"Weekly Top Themes from Bob Doll | Nuveen","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 21, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"U.S. monetary policy should remain equity-market friendly. In her comments last week, Janet Yellen stated that the neutral rate for the fed funds rate is \u201ccurrently quite low,\u201d and rates would not have to rise much more to become neutral. In our view, a neutral fed funds rate is closer\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15506,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/26\/bob-doll-mid-year-assessment-of-our-ten-predictions\/","url_meta":{"origin":18847,"position":5},"title":"Bob Doll: Mid-Year Assessment of Our Ten Predictions","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 26, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting review of Bob Doll's ten predictions for the year. They highlight the hazards of making predictions: you can be right for the wrong reasons or wrong for the right reasons. 1 \u2753 U.S. and global economic growth improves modestly as the dollar strengthens and reaches parity with the euro.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18847","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18847"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18847\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18855,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18847\/revisions\/18855"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18847"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18847"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18847"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}