{"id":18817,"date":"2019-09-03T23:30:47","date_gmt":"2019-09-03T23:30:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18817"},"modified":"2019-09-03T23:30:47","modified_gmt":"2019-09-03T23:30:47","slug":"a-sobering-assessment-of-the-global-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/03\/a-sobering-assessment-of-the-global-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"A sobering assessment of the global economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Donald Amstad from Aberdeen Standard Investments: &#8220;the developed world is verging on catastrophe&#8230;. we are facing an unprecedented bust in risk-free (bond) markets.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/3WclYu5l4G0?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<p><em>Hat tip to Marcus Padley<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Donald Amstad from Aberdeen Standard Investments: &#8220;the developed world is verging on catastrophe&#8230;. we are facing an unprecedented bust in risk-free (bond) markets.&#8221; Hat tip to Marcus Padley<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,45,3761,46,56,29],"tags":[4100,4101],"class_list":["post-18817","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-debt-deficits","category-gdp-and-activity","category-labor-employment","category-quantitative-investing","category-the-big-picture","tag-bond-market-bubble","tag-negative-yielding-debt"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A sobering assessment of the global economy - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A sobering assessment of the global economy - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Donald Amstad from Aberdeen Standard Investments: &#8220;the developed world is verging on catastrophe&#8230;. we are facing an unprecedented bust in risk-free (bond) markets.&#8221; Hat tip to Marcus Padley\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/03\/a-sobering-assessment-of-the-global-economy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-09-03T23:30:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/03\\\/a-sobering-assessment-of-the-global-economy\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/03\\\/a-sobering-assessment-of-the-global-economy\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"A sobering assessment of the global economy\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-09-03T23:30:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/03\\\/a-sobering-assessment-of-the-global-economy\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":41,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Bond market bubble\",\"Negative-yielding debt\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; 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Not only does this indicate a recovery in consumer confidence, but it will fuel additional expenditure and stimulate income growth. The ratio of household debt to personal disposable income\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Household Credit Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2013\/hhcredit-growth.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2013\/hhcredit-growth.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2013\/hhcredit-growth.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1821,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/07\/italy-nears-tipping-point-as-bond-yields-spike-wsj-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":18817,"position":1},"title":"Italy Nears Tipping Point as Bond Yields Spike &#8211; WSJ.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 7, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Less than two weeks after European leaders unveiled an agreement that was designed to bolster confidence in the region, the yield on Italy's 10-year debt drew close to the 7% mark, a line in the sand of both practical and psychological importance to the market. Psychologically, 7% has become a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":38132,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/15\/bond-market-no-place-to-hide\/","url_meta":{"origin":18817,"position":2},"title":"Bond market: No place to hide","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 15, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Advance retail sales were flat in September, reflecting slowing growth, but remain well above their pre-pandemic trend. So far, Fed rate hikes have failed to make a dent in consumer spending. Even adjusted for inflation, real retail sales are well above the pre-pandemic trend. The culprit is M2 money supply.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Advance Retail Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-15-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-15-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-15-retail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1864,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/10\/italy-fears-rattle-worlds-investors-wsj-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":18817,"position":3},"title":"Italy Fears Rattle World&#8217;s Investors &#8211; WSJ.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 10, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Big investors felt comfortable owning big stakes of Italian debt in part because they knew they could sell without much difficulty. That has changed. \"It used to be one of the most liquid markets out there, but it isn't anymore,\" said Peter Schaffrik, head of European rates strategy at RBC\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61894,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/04\/everyone-should-fear-the-bond-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":18817,"position":4},"title":"Everyone should fear the bond market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The bond market has \"cracked\" before There are no \"new eras\" Markets eventually revert to the mean There are no new saviors Gold is the best indicator of a bond market revolt Yesterday, we covered JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's warning that we will see \"a crack in the bond\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year US Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-03-10y-nixondefault.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-03-10y-nixondefault.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-03-10y-nixondefault.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":40522,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/01\/23\/a-bear-market-for-bonds\/","url_meta":{"origin":18817,"position":5},"title":"A bear market for bonds?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 23, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"In 2009, Warren Buffett wrote: \"Economic medicine that was previously meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel. These once-unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome aftereffects. Their precise nature is anyone\u2019s guess, though one likely consequence is an onslaught of inflation.....\" He was wrong\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Manufacturing wages","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-23-wages.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-23-wages.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-23-wages.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18817","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18817"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18817\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18818,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18817\/revisions\/18818"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18817"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18817"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18817"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}