{"id":18804,"date":"2019-08-31T05:37:14","date_gmt":"2019-08-31T05:37:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18804"},"modified":"2019-09-07T00:45:34","modified_gmt":"2019-09-07T00:45:34","slug":"sp-500-donald-trump-and-the-next-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/31\/sp-500-donald-trump-and-the-next-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500: Donald Trump and the next recession"},"content":{"rendered":"

Treasury yields continue to fall, with the 10-Year testing long-term lows at 1.50%. A sign that investors are growing increasingly risk averse.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

Crude oil prices remain weak; a bearish signal for the global economy. Breach of support at $50\/$51 per barrel would warn of a decline to $40.<\/p>\n

\"Nymex<\/p>\n

Volatility (21-Day) above 1.0% on the S&P 500 is flashing an amber warning. Breakout above 2940 is likely and would signal another test of 3000. But expect stubborn resistance at our 3000 target level<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Bearish divergence (13-Trend Index) on the Nasdaq 100 warns of secondary selling pressure. Breach of 7400 would warn of a test of primary support at 7000.<\/p>\n

\"Nasdaq<\/p>\n

Robert Shiller<\/a> maintains that Donald Trump is unlikely to survive a recession:<\/p>\n

“So far, with his flashy lifestyle, the US president has been a resounding inspiration to many consumers and investors. But his personal narrative is unlikely to survive an economic downturn….the end of confidence in Trump\u2019s narrative is likely to be associated with a recession.<\/p>\n

During a recession, people pull back and reassess their views. Consumers spend less, avoiding purchases that can be postponed: a new car, home renovations, and expensive vacations. Businesses spend less on new factories and equipment, and put off hiring. They don\u2019t have to explain their ultimate reasons for doing this. Their gut feelings and emotions can be enough.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I would go further and argue that Trump’s management style is likely to cause a recession.<\/p>\n

Some of the aims the President is attempting, like addressing China’s unfair trade practices, are vitally important to long-term US interests and he should be given credit for tackling them. But his constant hyperbole, erratic behavior, with a constant mix of bouquets and brickbats, and on-again-off-again tactics, has elevated global uncertainty. Consumers are likely to increase savings and cut back on expenditure, while corporations may cut back on hiring and new investment, which could tip the economy into recession.<\/p>\n

GDP growth contracted to 2.3% in the second quarter, while growth in hours worked contracted to 0.92% for the year ended July 2019, pointing to further falls in GDP growth for the third quarter.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

August employment figures are due for release next week and will either confirm or allay our fears.<\/p>\n

We maintain our bearish outlook and have reduced equity exposure for international stocks to 40% of portfolio value.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Treasury yields continue to fall, with the 10-Year testing long-term lows at 1.50%. A sign that investors are growing increasingly risk averse. Crude oil prices remain weak; a bearish signal for the global economy. Breach of support at $50\/$51 per barrel would warn of a decline to $40. Volatility (21-Day) above 1.0% on the S&P … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500: Donald Trump and the next recession”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,6,3761,57,34],"tags":[70,1084,1723,2401,2870,2979,3010],"class_list":["post-18804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-fixed-income","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-donald-trump","tag-hours-worked","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-real-gdp","tag-robert-shiller","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500: Donald Trump and the next recession - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500: Donald Trump and the next recession - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Treasury yields continue to fall, with the 10-Year testing long-term lows at 1.50%. A sign that investors are growing increasingly risk averse. Crude oil prices remain weak; a bearish signal for the global economy. Breach of support at $50\/$51 per barrel would warn of a decline to $40. 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Rising hours worked point to further gains in the new year. 10-Year Treasury yields rallied slightly but only breakout above 2.80% would hint at a reversal in the down-trend, while breach of 2.60% would warn of further weakness. Inflows into\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20819,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/06\/20\/sp-500-technology-rules\/","url_meta":{"origin":18804,"position":1},"title":"S&P 500: Technology rules","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 20, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The Nasdaq 100 continues to test resistance at 10,000 but bearish divergence on the Money Flow index warns of selling pressure and a likely reversal. Breach of support at 9000 would warn of another test of primary support at 7000. Technology stocks are driving the recovery, while the rest of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19025,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/05\/sp-500-survives-but-risk-is-elevated\/","url_meta":{"origin":18804,"position":2},"title":"S&P 500 survives but risk is elevated","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 5, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Our recession indicator, a 3-month TMO of seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, ticked up slightly to 0.52%. This reflects a slight improvement in monthly employment data but the indicator remains precariously close to the amber (high risk) warning level of 0.50%. The red warning level of 0.30% would signal extreme risk\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17014,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/08\/east-to-west-bonds-tariffs-hurt-crude-prices-and-developing-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":18804,"position":3},"title":"East to West: Bonds & tariffs hurt developing markets and crude prices","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 8, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields are consolidating in a triangle below long-term resistance at 3.00 percent. Breakout above 3.00 would signal a primary advance, ending the decades-long bull market in bonds. This would have a heavy impact on developing economies, including China, with a stronger Dollar forcing higher interest rates. A Trend\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20890,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/07\/04\/nasdaq-100-new-high-but-bearish-divergence\/","url_meta":{"origin":18804,"position":4},"title":"Nasdaq 100 new high but bearish divergence","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 4, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 respected support at 3000; follow-through above 3200 would signal a test of the February high at 3400. Lower Money Flow, however, warns of selling pressure. Breach of support at 3000 is less likely at present but would signal a correction. The Nasdaq 100 broke resistance at 10000,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18607,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/03\/sp-500-treasuries-reflect-flight-to-safety\/","url_meta":{"origin":18804,"position":5},"title":"S&P 500: Treasuries reflect flight to safety","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 3, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields plunged below 2.0% on Donald Trump's announcement of further tariffs (10% on $300bn) on China. The fall reflects rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven in these turbulent times. The spread between 10-Year and 3-Month Treasuries recovered above zero. This is a bearish sign: recession normally\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18804","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18804"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18804\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18838,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18804\/revisions\/18838"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18804"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18804"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18804"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}