{"id":18779,"date":"2019-08-28T02:06:17","date_gmt":"2019-08-28T02:06:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18779"},"modified":"2019-08-28T03:54:10","modified_gmt":"2019-08-28T03:54:10","slug":"sp-500-target","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/28\/sp-500-target\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 target"},"content":{"rendered":"

My target for the current S&P 500 long-term advance has been 3000 for a number of years. The chart below explains the target calculation.<\/p>\n

\"S&PClick here to view a full screen image.<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

The Dotcom bubble retraced from a peak of 1500 to a low of 800. Readers who are familiar with my method will know that on a short- or medium-term chart I would simply extend the retracement above the previous peak of 1500 (giving a target of 2300) but long-term charts work better on a log scale.<\/p>\n

If we extend the distance between peak and trough above the peak on a log scale chart, we get a target of 2800.<\/p>\n

If we do the same for the global financial crisis (GFC), we get a target of 3200.<\/p>\n

Mid-way between the two is another important target, of 3000, which is double the previous two peaks at 1500.<\/p>\n

Of the three targets, I feel that 3000 is the strongest. Not only because it is the middle target and double the previous peaks, but round numbers are important psychological barriers. The Dow, for example, took more than 10 years to break resistance at 1000.<\/p>\n

Now some may feel that technical analysis like this has as much significance as reading tea leaves or consulting your astrological charts. But observation shows that market activity tends to cluster around significant levels (e.g. 1500) or numbers and can present formidable barriers to trend progress.<\/p>\n

Primary Support<\/h2>\n

The next question is: if the market reverses at 3000, how far is it likely to retrace? There is no straight answer, but primary reversals normally retrace between 50% and 100% of the previous gain, or between 25% and 50% of the current level.<\/p>\n

There are two major support levels evident on the chart:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. The 2100 peak from 2015, a 50% retracement (on a log scale) of the preceding advance; and<\/li>\n
  2. The 1500 peak from 2000 and from 2007, marking 100% retracement of the previous advance and also a 50% retracement from the current level.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    A lot would depend on the severity of the reaction.<\/p>\n

    “You watch the market \u2014 that is, the course of prices as recorded by the tape with one object: to determine the direction. Prices, we know, will move either up or down according to the resistance they encounter. For purposes of easy explanation we will say that prices, like everything else, move along the line of least resistance. They will do whatever comes easiest, therefore they will go up if there is less resistance to an advance than to a decline; and vice versa.”<\/p>\n

    ~ Jesse Livermore<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    My target for the current S&P 500 long-term advance has been 3000 for a number of years. The chart below explains the target calculation. Click here to view a full screen image. The Dotcom bubble retraced from a peak of 1500 to a low of 800. Readers who are familiar with my method will know … <\/p>\n

    Continue reading “S&P 500 target”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[1090,1549,4097,4096,3010,3330],"class_list":["post-18779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-dotcom-bubble","tag-gfc","tag-lehman-bros","tag-ltcm-collapse","tag-sp-500","tag-target"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500 target - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500 target - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"My target for the current S&P 500 long-term advance has been 3000 for a number of years. 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Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure, possibly profit-taking at the long-term high. The daily chart of the S&P\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earnings & Dividends"","block_context":{"text":"Earnings & Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16039,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/12\/09\/cape-v-pemax-how-hot-are-market-valuations\/","url_meta":{"origin":18779,"position":1},"title":"CAPE v PEMAX: How hot are market valuations?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 9, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert Shiller's CAPE ratio is currently at 32.17, the second-highest peak in recorded history. According to multpl.com, prior to the Black Tuesday crash of 1929 CAPE had a reading of 30. The only peak with a higher reading is the Dotcom bubble at 44. Click here to view at multpl.com.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Quotes"","block_context":{"text":"Quotes","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/quotes\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":21333,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/29\/sp-500-and-stock-market-bubbles\/","url_meta":{"origin":18779,"position":2},"title":"S&P 500: Another stock market bubble?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 29, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"We see plenty of charts comparing major indices to GDP. Both the S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 made new highs relative to GDP, warning that stock pricing is at a new extreme. But comparing indices like these to an economy-wide measure like GDP is inaccurate for two key reasons: Index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GDP and Activity"","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":35805,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/20\/margin-debt-plunges-30\/","url_meta":{"origin":18779,"position":3},"title":"Margin debt plunges 30%","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 20, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Margin debt has fallen more than 30% from its October '21 peak. That is a similar range to the 2020 contraction, during the pandemic, but far behind the +50% contractions seen during the Dotcom crash (2000-2002) and the global financial crisis (2007-2009). The S&P fell 49% during the Dotcom crash\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 & Margin Debt","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-20-margindebt.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-20-margindebt.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-20-margindebt.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-20-margindebt.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13800,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/27\/risk-of-a-global-down-turn-remains-high-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":18779,"position":4},"title":"Risk of a global down-turn remains high","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 27, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock markets in Asia and Europe have clearly tipped into a primary down-trend but the US remains tentative. The weight of the market is on the sell side and the risk of a global down-turn remains high. Dow Jones Global Index found support at 270 and is rallying to test\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Global Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-28-djw.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-28-djw.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-28-djw.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5021,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/31\/asia-china-japan-bearish-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":18779,"position":5},"title":"Asia: China, Japan bearish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 31, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"There are conflicting reports about whether China is head for a hard or soft landing. China has the reserves and the capacity to implement further infrastructure programs if the economy cools too rapidly. And while its long-term goal is to deflate the speculative real estate bubble, the PBOC has shown\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18779"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18779\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18791,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18779\/revisions\/18791"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}