{"id":18719,"date":"2019-08-17T05:18:48","date_gmt":"2019-08-17T05:18:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18719"},"modified":"2019-08-17T05:18:48","modified_gmt":"2019-08-17T05:18:48","slug":"approaching-stall-speed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/17\/approaching-stall-speed\/","title":{"rendered":"Approaching stall speed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>With 89.7% of companies having reported, S&amp;P are projecting 4.4% earnings growth for June quarter 2019 compared to the second quarter in 2018. Even more interesting is their projection of 3.4% growth for the September quarter. With EPS growth boosted by a stock buyback yield of 3.5%, this warns that the economy is close to stall speed.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-16-spx-eps.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Earnings per share Forecast\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The daily chart for the S&amp;P 500 shows support at 2830\/2840, while a higher trough on 21-Day Money Flow indicates (secondary) buying pressure. I expect another test of resistance at 3030; breakout above resistance at 2940 would confirm.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-16-spx-dy.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But divergence on 13-Week Money Flow, as on the Nasdaq 100 below, warns of longer-term selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-16-ndx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nasdaq 100\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Small-cap stocks, as depicted by the Russell 2000 ETF below, are not enjoying the same support as large caps. A sign of rising risk aversion.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-16-rut.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Russell 2000 ETF\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bellwether transport stock Fedex is testing primary support at 150. Breach would warn of a primary decline, suggesting a slow-down in activity for the broad economy.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-16-fdx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fedex\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We maintain a bearish outlook on the global economy and maintain less than 50% exposure to US and International equities. Our view is that probability of a US recession in the next 6 to 12 months is as high as 70% to 80%.<\/p>\n<p>We expect stocks to rally for another attempt at the 3020\/3030 high for the S&amp;P 500 and will use opportunity to further reduce our exposure to equities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With 89.7% of companies having reported, S&amp;P are projecting 4.4% earnings growth for June quarter 2019 compared to the second quarter in 2018. Even more interesting is their projection of 3.4% growth for the September quarter. With EPS growth boosted by a stock buyback yield of 3.5%, this warns that the economy is close to &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/17\/approaching-stall-speed\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Approaching stall speed&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3761,3778,34],"tags":[1362,2401,3001,3010],"class_list":["post-18719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gdp-and-activity","category-international-trade","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-fedex","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-russell-2000","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Approaching stall speed - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Approaching stall speed - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With 89.7% of companies having reported, S&amp;P are projecting 4.4% earnings growth for June quarter 2019 compared to the second quarter in 2018. Even more interesting is their projection of 3.4% growth for the September quarter. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4RV","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":5638,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/02\/us-fedex-warns-of-declining-activity-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":18719,"position":0},"title":"US: Buying pressure easing","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 2, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The September Quarter has ended, bonuses have been determined, and buying pressure is now likely to ease. The S&P 500 is testing resistance after breaking support at 1450. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Respect of 1450 is likely and would indicate a test of 1400.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20491,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/09\/sp-500\/","url_meta":{"origin":18719,"position":1},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Watch Money Flow","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 9, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 index is headed for a test of resistance at 3000. Volatility remains at extreme levels and chances that this rally will fail are high. Earnings for S&P 500 stocks are forecast to fall by 40% when compared to the March quarter last year and 38% for the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16826,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/","url_meta":{"origin":18719,"position":2},"title":"S&#038;P 500 earnings surge","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 11, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Of companies in the S&P 500 index, 90.2% have reported their results for the quarter. According to S&P Dow Jones Indices: Sales growth at 11.0% year-on-year (Y\/Y) is close to a potential record. The earnings beat rate of 78% is also historically high, compared to an average of 67%. Operating\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4343,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/14\/sp-500-and-nasdaq-100-correction\/","url_meta":{"origin":18719,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 correction","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 14, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 broke support at 1340 to confirm the correction. Initial target is 1300. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero confirms medium-term selling pressure signaled by an earlier bearish divergence . Recovery above 1360 is most unlikely but would warn of a bear trap. * Target calculation:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15501,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/23\/sp-500-hesitates-at-2450\/","url_meta":{"origin":18719,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500 hesitates at 2450","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 23, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 hesitated at 2450, short of its target of 2500*. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Expect stronger resistance at 2500. Tech stocks are advancing at a rapid pace, with the Nasdaq 100 approaching 6000 after only breaking 5000 in January. Rising troughs\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4011,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/01\/bearish-divergence-for-us-indices\/","url_meta":{"origin":18719,"position":5},"title":"Bearish divergence for US indices","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 1, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure on the S&P 500 index. Expect a correction to test support at 1350\/1370 unless we see 21-day Twiggs Money Flow recovering above 30%. * Target calculation: 1300 + (1300 - 1150) = 1450 The Nasdaq 100 index encountered\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18719"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18719\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18722,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18719\/revisions\/18722"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}