{"id":18719,"date":"2019-08-17T05:18:48","date_gmt":"2019-08-17T05:18:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18719"},"modified":"2019-08-17T05:18:48","modified_gmt":"2019-08-17T05:18:48","slug":"approaching-stall-speed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/17\/approaching-stall-speed\/","title":{"rendered":"Approaching stall speed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>With 89.7% of companies having reported, S&amp;P are projecting 4.4% earnings growth for June quarter 2019 compared to the second quarter in 2018. Even more interesting is their projection of 3.4% growth for the September quarter. With EPS growth boosted by a stock buyback yield of 3.5%, this warns that the economy is close to stall speed.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-16-spx-eps.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Earnings per share Forecast\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The daily chart for the S&amp;P 500 shows support at 2830\/2840, while a higher trough on 21-Day Money Flow indicates (secondary) buying pressure. I expect another test of resistance at 3030; breakout above resistance at 2940 would confirm.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-16-spx-dy.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But divergence on 13-Week Money Flow, as on the Nasdaq 100 below, warns of longer-term selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-16-ndx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nasdaq 100\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Small-cap stocks, as depicted by the Russell 2000 ETF below, are not enjoying the same support as large caps. A sign of rising risk aversion.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-16-rut.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Russell 2000 ETF\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bellwether transport stock Fedex is testing primary support at 150. Breach would warn of a primary decline, suggesting a slow-down in activity for the broad economy.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-16-fdx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fedex\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We maintain a bearish outlook on the global economy and maintain less than 50% exposure to US and International equities. Our view is that probability of a US recession in the next 6 to 12 months is as high as 70% to 80%.<\/p>\n<p>We expect stocks to rally for another attempt at the 3020\/3030 high for the S&amp;P 500 and will use opportunity to further reduce our exposure to equities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With 89.7% of companies having reported, S&amp;P are projecting 4.4% earnings growth for June quarter 2019 compared to the second quarter in 2018. Even more interesting is their projection of 3.4% growth for the September quarter. With EPS growth boosted by a stock buyback yield of 3.5%, this warns that the economy is close to &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/17\/approaching-stall-speed\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Approaching stall speed&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3761,3778,34],"tags":[1362,2401,3001,3010],"class_list":["post-18719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gdp-and-activity","category-international-trade","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-fedex","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-russell-2000","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Approaching stall speed - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Approaching stall speed - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With 89.7% of companies having reported, S&amp;P are projecting 4.4% earnings growth for June quarter 2019 compared to the second quarter in 2018. Even more interesting is their projection of 3.4% growth for the September quarter. 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Earnings for S&P 500 stocks are forecast to fall by 40% when compared to the March quarter last year and 38% for the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5638,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/02\/us-fedex-warns-of-declining-activity-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":18719,"position":1},"title":"US: Buying pressure easing","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 2, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The September Quarter has ended, bonuses have been determined, and buying pressure is now likely to ease. The S&P 500 is testing resistance after breaking support at 1450. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Respect of 1450 is likely and would indicate a test of 1400.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16826,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/","url_meta":{"origin":18719,"position":2},"title":"S&#038;P 500 earnings surge","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 11, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Of companies in the S&P 500 index, 90.2% have reported their results for the quarter. According to S&P Dow Jones Indices: Sales growth at 11.0% year-on-year (Y\/Y) is close to a potential record. The earnings beat rate of 78% is also historically high, compared to an average of 67%. Operating\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4343,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/14\/sp-500-and-nasdaq-100-correction\/","url_meta":{"origin":18719,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 correction","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 14, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 broke support at 1340 to confirm the correction. Initial target is 1300. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero confirms medium-term selling pressure signaled by an earlier bearish divergence . Recovery above 1360 is most unlikely but would warn of a bear trap. * Target calculation:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15501,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/23\/sp-500-hesitates-at-2450\/","url_meta":{"origin":18719,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500 hesitates at 2450","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 23, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 hesitated at 2450, short of its target of 2500*. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Expect stronger resistance at 2500. Tech stocks are advancing at a rapid pace, with the Nasdaq 100 approaching 6000 after only breaking 5000 in January. Rising troughs\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4011,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/01\/bearish-divergence-for-us-indices\/","url_meta":{"origin":18719,"position":5},"title":"Bearish divergence for US indices","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 1, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure on the S&P 500 index. Expect a correction to test support at 1350\/1370 unless we see 21-day Twiggs Money Flow recovering above 30%. * Target calculation: 1300 + (1300 - 1150) = 1450 The Nasdaq 100 index encountered\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18719"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18719\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18722,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18719\/revisions\/18722"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}