{"id":18644,"date":"2019-08-10T01:16:22","date_gmt":"2019-08-10T01:16:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18644"},"modified":"2019-08-12T07:49:58","modified_gmt":"2019-08-12T07:49:58","slug":"sp-500-flight-to-safety","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/10\/sp-500-flight-to-safety\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500: Flight to safety"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>10-Year Treasury yields are near record lows after Donald Trump&#8217;s announcement of further tariffs on China. The fall reflects the flight to safety, with rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-tnx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Crude found support at $50\/barrel. Breach would warn of a new down-trend, with a target of $40\/barrel. Declining crude prices reflect a pessimistic outlook for the global economy.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-crude.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year 3-Month Treasury Spread\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 found support at 2850. Rising volatility warns of increased market risk. A test of support at 2750 remains likely.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Declining Money Flow on the Nasdaq 100 reflects rising selling pressure. Expect a test of 7000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-ndx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nasdaq 100\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Shanghai Composite Index broke support at 2850. A Trend Index peak at zero warns of strong selling pressure. Expect a test of support at 2500.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-ssec.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>India&#8217;s Nifty is testing support at 11,000. Breach would offer a target of 10,000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-nsx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nifty Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 600, reflecting large cap stocks in the European Union, is testing primary support at 368. Strong bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of a double-top reversal, with a target of 330.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-stoxx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"DJ Euro Stoxx 600\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Footsie is similarly testing support at 7150. Breach would offer a target of 6600.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-ftse.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"FTSE 100\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I have warned clients to cut exposure to the market. It&#8217;s a good time to be cautious.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"qtn\"><p>&#8220;There is a time for all things, but I didn\u2019t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>~ Jesse Livermore<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>10-Year Treasury yields are near record lows after Donald Trump&#8217;s announcement of further tariffs on China. The fall reflects the flight to safety, with rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven. Crude found support at $50\/barrel. Breach would warn of a new down-trend, with a target of $40\/barrel. Declining crude prices reflect a pessimistic &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/10\/sp-500-flight-to-safety\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500: Flight to safety&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,44,12,57,33,34],"tags":[70,3940,1481,2401,2510,2527,3010,3100],"class_list":["post-18644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-india-singapore-countries-regions","category-stock-markets","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-dj-euro-stoxx-600","tag-ftse-100","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-nse-nifty-index","tag-nymex-light-crude","tag-sp-500","tag-shanghai-composite-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500: Flight to safety - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500: Flight to safety - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10-Year Treasury yields are near record lows after Donald Trump&#8217;s announcement of further tariffs on China. The fall reflects the flight to safety, with rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven. Crude found support at $50\/barrel. Breach would warn of a new down-trend, with a target of $40\/barrel. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4QI","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":58791,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/29\/strong-liquidity-but-rising-uncertainty\/","url_meta":{"origin":18644,"position":0},"title":"Strong liquidity but rising uncertainty","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 29, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Bitcoin signals strong financial market liquidity, supporting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq uptrends. However, rising 10-year Treasury yields indicate concern over the sustainability of fiscal deficits, which has boosted demand for the safety of precious metals. Stocks The S&P 500 continues to test support at 5800, with lower Trend Index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-28-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-28-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-28-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56203,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/02\/plunging-treasury-yields-lift-gold-but-stocks-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":18644,"position":1},"title":"Plunging Treasury yields lift gold but stocks fall","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 2, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Ten-year Treasury yields broke support at 4.0%, plunging in anticipation of Fed rate cuts in September. Expect retracement to test resistance at 4.0% but respect is likely to confirm our medium-term target of 3.8%. Stocks Falling yields failed to lift stocks, with the S&P 500 testing support at 5400. Declining\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-01-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-01-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-01-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12898,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/01\/gold-rallies-as-crude-finds-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":18644,"position":2},"title":"Gold rallies as crude finds support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 1, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Crude finds support at $30\/barrel, iron ore rallies, the Dollar strengthens, long-term interest rates fall and all seems right with the world. But is it? Deflationary pressures in Europe are rising. China cut bank reserve requirements to stimulate lending. And long-term interest rates would be rising, not falling, if confidence\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Light Crude June 2016 Futures","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-03-01-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-03-01-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-03-01-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18607,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/03\/sp-500-treasuries-reflect-flight-to-safety\/","url_meta":{"origin":18644,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Treasuries reflect flight to safety","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 3, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields plunged below 2.0% on Donald Trump's announcement of further tariffs (10% on $300bn) on China. The fall reflects rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven in these turbulent times. The spread between 10-Year and 3-Month Treasuries recovered above zero. This is a bearish sign: recession normally\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17014,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/08\/east-to-west-bonds-tariffs-hurt-crude-prices-and-developing-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":18644,"position":4},"title":"East to West: Bonds &#038; tariffs hurt developing markets and crude prices","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 8, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields are consolidating in a triangle below long-term resistance at 3.00 percent. Breakout above 3.00 would signal a primary advance, ending the decades-long bull market in bonds. This would have a heavy impact on developing economies, including China, with a stronger Dollar forcing higher interest rates. A Trend\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7927,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/06\/19\/gold-falls-while-treasury-yields-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":18644,"position":5},"title":"Gold falls while Treasury yields rise","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 19, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold is testing primary support at $1340\/ounce. Breach of support would signal another primary decline, while follow-through below $1320 would confirm. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates a healthy primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would offer a target of $1100*. * Target calculation: 1300 - ( 1500 -\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18644","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18644"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18644\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18657,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18644\/revisions\/18657"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}