{"id":18628,"date":"2019-08-09T23:20:37","date_gmt":"2019-08-09T23:20:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18628"},"modified":"2019-08-09T23:20:37","modified_gmt":"2019-08-09T23:20:37","slug":"asx-dead-cat-bounce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/09\/asx-dead-cat-bounce\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX: Dead cat bounce"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The ASX 200 found support at 6450\/6500 followed by a hesitant rally: a candle with a long tail followed by a short-bodied <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/candlestick_patterns\/candlestick-patterns.php#candlestick_evening_star\">evening star<\/a>. This resembles a typical dead cat bounce. Breach of 6450 is likely and would warn of a decline to test support at 6000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-xjo.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Gerard Minack in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2019\/08\/minack-special-report-aussie-recession-risk-rising\/\">recent report<\/a> suggested that Australia is likely to go into recession if the saving ratio increases. For the past few years, consumption has been growing at a faster rate than disposable income as households dig into savings to maintain their lifestyle.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-aus-saving.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Consumption, Disposable Income &amp; Saving\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Households may continue this behavior because of the wealth-effect (they feel asset-rich but cash-poor) but are likely to reverse sharply if housing and equity prices fall. Which is what we are witnessing at present.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-aus-housing.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Housing Prices\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In our view, the housing decline is likely to continue despite the RBA cutting rates. While rates may be attractive, job prospects are looking shaky. Loan approvals are falling.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-aus-housing-loans.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Housing Loans\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Business investment is falling.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-aus-investment.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Business Investment\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Job ads are about to go over a cliff. Trade tensions with China will add to our woes.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-aus-jobads.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Job Ads\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Public funded infrastructure construction is slumping.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-aus-public-constrn.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Public Construction\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Credit and broad money supply growth are approaching 2009 GFC lows.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-aus-credit.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Credit &amp; Broad Money\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And our iron ore tailwind is dying fast. Iron ore spot prices have fallen off a cliff. Breach of support at 95 is likely and would warn of another decline to test support at 80.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-09-tr.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Iron Ore\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I plan to further increase the level of cash in our <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/my-portfolios\/\">Australian Growth<\/a> portfolio.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The ASX 200 found support at 6450\/6500 followed by a hesitant rally: a candle with a long tail followed by a short-bodied evening star. This resembles a typical dead cat bounce. Breach of 6450 is likely and would warn of a decline to test support at 6000. Gerard Minack in a recent report suggested that &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/09\/asx-dead-cat-bounce\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;ASX: Dead cat bounce&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,43,57],"tags":[251,867,1227,1732,1882,1902,3041],"class_list":["post-18628","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-credit","tag-employment","tag-housing","tag-investment","tag-iron-ore","tag-saving"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ASX: Dead cat bounce - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX: Dead cat bounce - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The ASX 200 found support at 6450\/6500 followed by a hesitant rally: a candle with a long tail followed by a short-bodied evening star. This resembles a typical dead cat bounce. Breach of 6450 is likely and would warn of a decline to test support at 6000. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4Qs","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":56460,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/08\/asx-dead-cat-bounce-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":18628,"position":0},"title":"ASX dead cat bounce","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 8, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 is struggling to recover after its sharp fall to test primary support at 7600. Tall shadows and doji candles indicate hesitancy. Expect strong support between 7550 and 7600 but breach is growing more likely in the longer term. The Financials sector is holding up well, bolstered by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-07-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-07-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-07-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18714,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/17\/asx-200-breaks-support-5\/","url_meta":{"origin":18628,"position":1},"title":"ASX 200 breaks support","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 17, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore continues to test support at $94\/tonne. Breach of support would signal a decline to test $80\/tonne. The ASX 200 broke support at 6450\/6500 after a hesitant rally, warning of a decline to test support at 6000. Descending peaks on Twiggs Money Flow signal rising selling pressure. The ASX\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":34928,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/06\/29\/asx-dead-cat-bounce-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":18628,"position":2},"title":"ASX dead cat bounce","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 29, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 is in a primary down-trend. Having found support at 6400, the index is retracing to test new resistance at the former primary support level of 7000. Respect would reinforce the bear market signal. Bond ETFs are in a primary down-trend, signaling rising long-term interest rates. A-REITs found\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-29-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-29-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-29-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-29-xjo.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":60730,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/04\/australian-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":18628,"position":3},"title":"Australian headwinds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Australia faces headwinds if there is a US-China trade war. China is our biggest trading partner; iron ore and coal exports will likely suffer. The ASX 200 is testing support at 8350, showing a \"dead cat bounce\" after tariffs on Canada and Mexico were postponed for 30 days. That is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-04-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-04-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-04-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":130,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/09\/asx-closes-in-positive-territory\/","url_meta":{"origin":18628,"position":4},"title":"ASX closes in positive territory","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 9, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 closed in positive territory for the day, accompanied by strong volumes indicative of today's institutional buying across the Asia-Pacific region. Expect a dead cat bounce \u2014 a rally to re-test resistance levels \u2014 but the bear market is not miraculously over and may take several months to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18561,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/07\/20\/asx-200-iron-ore-tailwinds-continue\/","url_meta":{"origin":18628,"position":5},"title":"ASX 200: Iron ore tailwinds continue","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 20, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX continues to enjoy a massive tailwind, with iron ore spot prices holding above $120\/tonne. Prices are expected to moderate, with Brazilian exports recovering. Clyde Russell at Mining.com comments: \"Even if Brazil\u2019s exports do remain slightly below normal, it may be the case that the iron ore forward curve\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18628","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18628"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18628\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18630,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18628\/revisions\/18630"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18628"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18628"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18628"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}