{"id":18607,"date":"2019-08-03T03:35:26","date_gmt":"2019-08-03T03:35:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18607"},"modified":"2019-08-03T03:35:26","modified_gmt":"2019-08-03T03:35:26","slug":"sp-500-treasuries-reflect-flight-to-safety","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/03\/sp-500-treasuries-reflect-flight-to-safety\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500: Treasuries reflect flight to safety"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>10-Year Treasury yields plunged below 2.0% on Donald Trump&#8217;s announcement of further tariffs (10% on $300bn) on China. The fall reflects rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven in these turbulent times.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-tnx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The spread between 10-Year and 3-Month Treasuries recovered above zero. This is a bearish sign: recession normally follows the recovery and not the initial inversion.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-yielddiff.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year 3-Month Treasury Spread\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 retreated below 3000 on Trump&#8217;s announcement, strengthening the bearish divergence signal on Twiggs Money Flow which warns of a correction. A test of support at 2750 is likely.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is expected to test primary support at 145. Small cap stocks have lagged the S&amp;P 500 this year, highlighting risk aversion.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-rut.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Russell 2000 Small Caps Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 600, reflecting large cap stocks in the European Union, is similarly headed for a test of primary support at 365. Strong bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of a reversal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-stoxx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"DJ Euro Stoxx 600\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Falling commodity prices reflect market concerns for the global economy. A Nymex Light Crude breach of $51\/barrel would signal a primary down-trend. Declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-crude.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nymex Light Crude\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The DJ-UBS Commodity Index is similarly headed for a test of support at 75. Breach would signal a primary down-trend. A peak near zero on the Trend Index warns of strong selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-dubs.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"DJ-UBS Commodity Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Dr Copper, often used as a barometer of the global economy, has breached primary support at 5800, signaling a decline. Again, a Trend Index peak below zero warns of strong selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-copper.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Copper\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Employment stats for July have improved slightly, with Average Hourly Wages growth easing to 3.3% (Total Private).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-wages.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Average Hourly Wage\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And annual payroll growth ticked up to 1.5%<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-payrolls.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Employment Growth &amp; FFR\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But weekly hours worked are declining, warning that real GDP will decline further, after printing 2.3% for the second quarter.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-realgdp.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Real GDP &amp; Weekly Hours Worked\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I have warned my clients to cut exposure to the market. It&#8217;s a good time to be cautious.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"qtn\"><p>&#8220;Price is what you pay; value is what you get.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>~ Benjamin Graham<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>10-Year Treasury yields plunged below 2.0% on Donald Trump&#8217;s announcement of further tariffs (10% on $300bn) on China. The fall reflects rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven in these turbulent times. The spread between 10-Year and 3-Month Treasuries recovered above zero. This is a bearish sign: recession normally follows the recovery and not &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/03\/sp-500-treasuries-reflect-flight-to-safety\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500: Treasuries reflect flight to safety&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,46,3761,13,57,33,34],"tags":[69,4082,815,3940,1064,1229,2527,2870,4083,3010,4081],"class_list":["post-18607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-inflation-economy","category-stock-markets","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-average-hourly-wages","tag-copper","tag-dj-euro-stoxx-600","tag-dj-ubs-commodity-index","tag-employment-growth","tag-nymex-light-crude","tag-real-gdp","tag-rusell-2000","tag-sp-500","tag-yield-spreads"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500: Treasuries reflect flight to safety - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500: Treasuries reflect flight to safety - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10-Year Treasury yields plunged below 2.0% on Donald Trump&#8217;s announcement of further tariffs (10% on $300bn) on China. The fall reflects rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven in these turbulent times. The spread between 10-Year and 3-Month Treasuries recovered above zero. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4Q7","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":62233,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/05\/dow-rallies-but-treasuries-remain-bearish\/","url_meta":{"origin":18607,"position":0},"title":"Dow rallies but Treasuries remain bearish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 5, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The Dow recovered above 44K on Monday, boosted by strong market liquidity But 10-year Treasury yields declined to 4.2% as evidence of a slowing economy grows The Dow Jones Industrial Average made a reasonable bounce on Monday, after Friday's jobs data shock, but only a breakout above 45K\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-05-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-05-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-05-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18333,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/08\/sp-500-short-term-versus-long-run\/","url_meta":{"origin":18607,"position":1},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Short-term versus long run","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 8, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The market is excited at the prospect of Fed rate cuts (in response to the US-CCP trade war), with the S&P 500 headed for another test of its earlier high at 2950. A Trend Index trough above zero indicates short-term buying pressure. Falling bond yields, however, warn of a flight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18037,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/23\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":18607,"position":2},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 23, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields plunged Friday, to close at 2.45%, warning of a decline to test primary support at 2.0%. The yield curve is now likely to turn negative. The 10-Year\/2-Year yield differential has already fallen to 0.13%. Below zero signals a negative yield curve, a reliable predictor of oncoming recession\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17939,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/02\/gdp-up-but-etf-flows-bearish\/","url_meta":{"origin":18607,"position":3},"title":"GDP up but ETF flows bearish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 2, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Real US GDP grew a healthy 3.1% in Q4 2018. Rising hours worked point to further gains in the new year. 10-Year Treasury yields rallied slightly but only breakout above 2.80% would hint at a reversal in the down-trend, while breach of 2.60% would warn of further weakness. Inflows into\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18644,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/10\/sp-500-flight-to-safety\/","url_meta":{"origin":18607,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Flight to safety","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 10, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields are near record lows after Donald Trump's announcement of further tariffs on China. The fall reflects the flight to safety, with rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven. Crude found support at $50\/barrel. Breach would warn of a new down-trend, with a target of $40\/barrel. Declining\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":36202,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/06\/strong-us-labor-report-warns-of-further-rate-hikes\/","url_meta":{"origin":18607,"position":5},"title":"Strong US labor report bearish for stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 6, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The US economy added 528,00 new jobs in July, with total non-farm payroll reaching a new record of 152.536 million. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, close to its 60-year low of 3.4% (1969). The labor market remains tight, with job openings exceeding unemployment by 5 million. Estimated hours worked\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-05-nonfarm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-05-nonfarm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-05-nonfarm.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18607","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18607"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18607\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18608,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18607\/revisions\/18608"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18607"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18607"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18607"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}