{"id":18607,"date":"2019-08-03T03:35:26","date_gmt":"2019-08-03T03:35:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18607"},"modified":"2019-08-03T03:35:26","modified_gmt":"2019-08-03T03:35:26","slug":"sp-500-treasuries-reflect-flight-to-safety","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/03\/sp-500-treasuries-reflect-flight-to-safety\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500: Treasuries reflect flight to safety"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>10-Year Treasury yields plunged below 2.0% on Donald Trump&#8217;s announcement of further tariffs (10% on $300bn) on China. The fall reflects rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven in these turbulent times.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-tnx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The spread between 10-Year and 3-Month Treasuries recovered above zero. This is a bearish sign: recession normally follows the recovery and not the initial inversion.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-yielddiff.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year 3-Month Treasury Spread\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 retreated below 3000 on Trump&#8217;s announcement, strengthening the bearish divergence signal on Twiggs Money Flow which warns of a correction. A test of support at 2750 is likely.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is expected to test primary support at 145. Small cap stocks have lagged the S&amp;P 500 this year, highlighting risk aversion.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-rut.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Russell 2000 Small Caps Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 600, reflecting large cap stocks in the European Union, is similarly headed for a test of primary support at 365. Strong bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of a reversal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-stoxx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"DJ Euro Stoxx 600\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Falling commodity prices reflect market concerns for the global economy. A Nymex Light Crude breach of $51\/barrel would signal a primary down-trend. Declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-crude.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nymex Light Crude\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The DJ-UBS Commodity Index is similarly headed for a test of support at 75. Breach would signal a primary down-trend. A peak near zero on the Trend Index warns of strong selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-dubs.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"DJ-UBS Commodity Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Dr Copper, often used as a barometer of the global economy, has breached primary support at 5800, signaling a decline. Again, a Trend Index peak below zero warns of strong selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-copper.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Copper\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Employment stats for July have improved slightly, with Average Hourly Wages growth easing to 3.3% (Total Private).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-wages.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Average Hourly Wage\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And annual payroll growth ticked up to 1.5%<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-payrolls.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Employment Growth &amp; FFR\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But weekly hours worked are declining, warning that real GDP will decline further, after printing 2.3% for the second quarter.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-03-realgdp.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Real GDP &amp; Weekly Hours Worked\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I have warned my clients to cut exposure to the market. It&#8217;s a good time to be cautious.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"qtn\"><p>&#8220;Price is what you pay; value is what you get.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>~ Benjamin Graham<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>10-Year Treasury yields plunged below 2.0% on Donald Trump&#8217;s announcement of further tariffs (10% on $300bn) on China. The fall reflects rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven in these turbulent times. The spread between 10-Year and 3-Month Treasuries recovered above zero. This is a bearish sign: recession normally follows the recovery and not &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/03\/sp-500-treasuries-reflect-flight-to-safety\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500: Treasuries reflect flight to safety&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,46,3761,13,57,33,34],"tags":[69,4082,815,3940,1064,1229,2527,2870,4083,3010,4081],"class_list":["post-18607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-inflation-economy","category-stock-markets","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-average-hourly-wages","tag-copper","tag-dj-euro-stoxx-600","tag-dj-ubs-commodity-index","tag-employment-growth","tag-nymex-light-crude","tag-real-gdp","tag-rusell-2000","tag-sp-500","tag-yield-spreads"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500: Treasuries reflect flight to safety - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500: Treasuries reflect flight to safety - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10-Year Treasury yields plunged below 2.0% on Donald Trump&#8217;s announcement of further tariffs (10% on $300bn) on China. The fall reflects rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven in these turbulent times. The spread between 10-Year and 3-Month Treasuries recovered above zero. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4Q7","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":62233,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/05\/dow-rallies-but-treasuries-remain-bearish\/","url_meta":{"origin":18607,"position":0},"title":"Dow rallies but Treasuries remain bearish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 5, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The Dow recovered above 44K on Monday, boosted by strong market liquidity But 10-year Treasury yields declined to 4.2% as evidence of a slowing economy grows The Dow Jones Industrial Average made a reasonable bounce on Monday, after Friday's jobs data shock, but only a breakout above 45K\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-05-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-05-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-05-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18333,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/08\/sp-500-short-term-versus-long-run\/","url_meta":{"origin":18607,"position":1},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Short-term versus long run","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 8, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The market is excited at the prospect of Fed rate cuts (in response to the US-CCP trade war), with the S&P 500 headed for another test of its earlier high at 2950. A Trend Index trough above zero indicates short-term buying pressure. Falling bond yields, however, warn of a flight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18037,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/23\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":18607,"position":2},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 23, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields plunged Friday, to close at 2.45%, warning of a decline to test primary support at 2.0%. The yield curve is now likely to turn negative. The 10-Year\/2-Year yield differential has already fallen to 0.13%. Below zero signals a negative yield curve, a reliable predictor of oncoming recession\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18644,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/10\/sp-500-flight-to-safety\/","url_meta":{"origin":18607,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Flight to safety","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 10, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields are near record lows after Donald Trump's announcement of further tariffs on China. The fall reflects the flight to safety, with rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven. Crude found support at $50\/barrel. Breach would warn of a new down-trend, with a target of $40\/barrel. Declining\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17939,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/02\/gdp-up-but-etf-flows-bearish\/","url_meta":{"origin":18607,"position":4},"title":"GDP up but ETF flows bearish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 2, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Real US GDP grew a healthy 3.1% in Q4 2018. Rising hours worked point to further gains in the new year. 10-Year Treasury yields rallied slightly but only breakout above 2.80% would hint at a reversal in the down-trend, while breach of 2.60% would warn of further weakness. Inflows into\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61955,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/13\/dollar-warns-of-tipping-point\/","url_meta":{"origin":18607,"position":5},"title":"Dollar warns of tipping point","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 13, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The dollar is weakening due to capital outflows from the US Long-term Treasury yields are declining in anticipation of Fed rate cuts However, capital outflows are expected to lift long-term rates and slow economic growth in the years ahead The weaker dollar is expected to depress stock prices and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dollar Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-12-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-12-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-12-dxy.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18607","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18607"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18607\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18608,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18607\/revisions\/18608"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18607"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18607"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18607"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}