CNBC<\/a> reports that Apple’s sales and earnings over the past 4 years are essentially flat. The only metric that has improved is earnings per share (EPS) because of stock buybacks. Shares in issue have shrunk by 20.7%, from 5.8 to 4.6 billion.<\/p>\n![\"Apple](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/applemetricssantoli.png?w=525&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n
Let’s break this down.<\/p>\n
Earnings per share grew by an average 5.7% over the past 4 years, of which 0.2% was from actual growth and 5.5% from buybacks. Apple spent $170 billion on stock buybacks in the 4 years to September 2018 at an average of $150.85 per share.<\/p>\n
![\"Apple](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-08-01-aapl-buybacks.png?w=525&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n
In FY18 buybacks totaled $72.7 billion, or 7.5% of current market cap ($965.4 bn), well above its earnings of $59.5 bn. Apple is distributing capital to stockholders by way of buybacks.<\/p>\n
FY19 estimated earnings yield is 5.4% and dividend yield is 1.4%, leaving retained earnings are 4.0%. Far less than the buyback yield. The company has heaps of cash and can basically keep doing this for a long, long time. But it erodes shareholder value.<\/p>\n
Total return investors can expect, if they buy at the current price of $213.04,\u00a0 is 5.6% (5.4% earnings yield and 0.2% actual growth). That is all that Apple will earn on the money invested into buybacks. An admission that the company is standing still, powerless to inject new growth.<\/p>\n
A PE ratio of 17.9 appears modest but it isn’t if you only have 0.2% growth. That amounts to a PEG ratio of a staggering 90 times growth!<\/p>\n
Bottom Line<\/h2>\n
Apple is no longer a growth company. Earnings are shrinking in real terms and the only way the company can maintain the illusion of growth is by buying back stock at exorbitant prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Apple (AAPL) is a notable omission in my international model portfolio. Here is one of the reasons. Michael Santoli at CNBC reports that Apple’s sales and earnings over the past 4 years are essentially flat. The only metric that has improved is earnings per share (EPS) because of stock buybacks. Shares in issue have shrunk … <\/p>\n
Continue reading “Apple Inc. (AAPL) – window dressing with buybacks”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3803],"tags":[107,4002,3249],"class_list":["post-18597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-international-growth","tag-aapl","tag-apple-inc","tag-stock-buybacks"],"yoast_head":"\nApple Inc. (AAPL) - window dressing with buybacks - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Apple Inc. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4PX","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":19788,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/14\/a-worm-in-the-apple\/","url_meta":{"origin":18597,"position":0},"title":"A worm in the Apple","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 14, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Apple Inc (AAPL) enjoyed stellar growth over the past 12 months, jumping more than 50%. But is that due to solid operating performance or window-dressing, with almost $140 billion of stock buybacks in the last two years? Free cash flow \u2014 operating cash flow less stock compensation and investment in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4792,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/08\/sp-indices-sp-500-stock-buybacks-decrease-for-first-time-since-q2-2009\/","url_meta":{"origin":18597,"position":1},"title":"S&P 500 dividend yields signal oversold?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 8, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Historically the S&P 500 was considered overbought -- and ripe for a bear market -- when the dividend yield dropped below 3 percent. A surge in share buybacks in the past two decades, however, disrupted this relationship, with the dividend yield falling close to 1.0 percent in the Dotcom era.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earnings & Dividends"","block_context":{"text":"Earnings & Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20478,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/07\/apple-inc-aapl-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":18597,"position":2},"title":"Apple Inc (AAPL)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 7, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Apple Inc Exchange: NASDAQ Symbol: AAPL Date: 7-May-20 Latest price: $300.63 Market Cap: $1.3 Tn Fair Value: $181.52 Forward P\/E: 25.06 FV Payback (Years): 11 Forward Dividend Yield: 1.10% Debt\/FCF: 2.1 Financial Y\/E: 28-Sep-20 Rating: HOLD Sector: Technology Industry: Consumer Electronics Investment Theme: LT Growth Structural Trends: Growth of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "International Growth"","block_context":{"text":"International Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/international-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17503,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/29\/mastercard-ma\/","url_meta":{"origin":18597,"position":3},"title":"Mastercard (MA)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 29, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Mastercard Inc. Symbol: MA Exchange: NYSE Financial Year-end: 31 December Latest price: $202.28 Market cap: $208.9 billion Date: November 28, 2018 We have updated the Valuation section to facilitate comparison with Visa. Sector: Financial Services Industry: Payment Services Investment Theme: Long-term Growth Structural Trends: Growth of electronic payments and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "International Growth"","block_context":{"text":"International Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/international-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18555,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/07\/20\/buybacks-are-hurting-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":18597,"position":4},"title":"Buybacks are hurting growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 20, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Preliminary Q1 results from S&P Dow Jones Indices show S&P 500 dividends and buybacks continue to exceed reported earnings in the first quarter of the current year. While this could be a spill-over of offshore funds repatriated as a result of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, companies have\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17267,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/02\/mastercard-inc-ma\/","url_meta":{"origin":18597,"position":5},"title":"Mastercard Inc. (MA)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 2, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Mastercard Inc. Symbol: MA Exchange: NYSE Financial Year-end: 31 December Latest price: $199.71 Market cap: $206 billion Date: November 1, 2018 Sector: Financial Services Industry: Payment Services Investment Theme: Long-term Growth Structural Trends: Growth of electronic payments and online services. Financial Performance Revenue Revenue growth has averaged 16.4% per\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "International Growth"","block_context":{"text":"International Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/international-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18597","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18597"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18597\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18602,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18597\/revisions\/18602"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18597"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18597"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18597"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}