{"id":18579,"date":"2019-07-27T03:21:25","date_gmt":"2019-07-27T03:21:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18579"},"modified":"2019-07-27T03:21:25","modified_gmt":"2019-07-27T03:21:25","slug":"be-wary-of-investing-in-a-rigged-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/07\/27\/be-wary-of-investing-in-a-rigged-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Be wary of investing in a rigged market"},"content":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 recovered above 3000, suggesting another advance, but bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of (secondary) selling pressure.\u00a0 Further tests of new support at 2950 are likely.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Falling commodity prices warn of declining global demand.<\/p>\n

\"DJ-UBS<\/p>\n

Declining crude prices reinforce the warning.<\/p>\n

\"Nymex<\/p>\n

While in the US, the Cass Freight Index formed a lower peak. Follow-through below the previous trough would warn of a down-trend and declining activity.<\/p>\n

\"Cass<\/p>\n

Capital goods orders, adjusted for inflation, continue to decline.<\/p>\n

\"Capital<\/p>\n

Housing starts are steady but declining building permits warn of a slow-down ahead.<\/p>\n

\"Housing<\/p>\n

Craig Johnson of Piper Jaffray says odds of a recession are growing<\/a>:<\/p>\n

“The bond market has already priced in two rate cuts at this point in time, and potentially part of a third,” Johnson said. “History has always said that bonds lead equities and we need to listen to that message. I think that’s what the smart money is doing…I guess we can’t seem to quite get off of the monetary train that we’ve gotten ourselves onto, and I don’t think it’s quite so simple.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Trailing price-earnings (PEmax) are above 20, historically a warning that the market is over-heated. The biggest buyers of stocks are the companies themselves, through buybacks. The Fed is expected to cut rates while employment growth is still strong. Price signals are being distorted.<\/p>\n

Be wary of investing in a rigged market. It’s a good time to be cautious.<\/p>\n

“It is optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer.”<\/p>\n

~ Warren Buffett<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 recovered above 3000, suggesting another advance, but bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of (secondary) selling pressure.\u00a0 Further tests of new support at 2950 are likely. Falling commodity prices warn of declining global demand. Declining crude prices reinforce the warning. While in the US, the Cass Freight Index formed a lower … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Be wary of investing in a rigged market”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43,44,57,34],"tags":[4079,4078,4077,1064,1746,2527,3766,3010],"class_list":["post-18579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-building-permits","tag-capital-goods-orders","tag-cass-freight-index","tag-dj-ubs-commodity-index","tag-housing-starts","tag-nymex-light-crude","tag-pemax","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"\nBe wary of investing in a rigged market - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Be wary of investing in a rigged market - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The S&P 500 recovered above 3000, suggesting another advance, but bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of (secondary) selling pressure.\u00a0 Further tests of new support at 2950 are likely. 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The S&P 500 retreated from resistance at its 2022 high of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-21-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-21-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-21-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19819,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/22\/sp-500-freight-and-manufacturing-slow-but-housing-lifts\/","url_meta":{"origin":18579,"position":1},"title":"S&P 500: Freight and manufacturing down but housing up","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 22, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"An engulfing candle on the weekly S&P 500 chart, together with a lower peak on the Trend Index, both warn of short-term selling pressure. Reversal below 3320 would suggest another test of 3200. But the index remains in a strong primary up-trend. A long-term (log-scale) chart shows how far the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":62742,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/16\/crude-sinks-but-copper-lithium-and-uranium-boom\/","url_meta":{"origin":18579,"position":2},"title":"Crude sinks but copper, lithium, and uranium boom","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 16, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The International Energy Agency forecasts a heavy crude oil oversupply in 2026, sinking spot prices. However, copper, lithium, and uranium miners are all trending higher, anticipating rising transport electrification and a massive build-out of AI datacenters. A declining Cass Freight Index and falling heavy truck sales warn of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Copper"","block_context":{"text":"Copper","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/copper\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"IEA Forecast of Global Crude Oil Supply & Demand","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-15-iea-supply.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-15-iea-supply.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-15-iea-supply.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-15-iea-supply.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41044,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/01\/dont-trust-the-vix\/","url_meta":{"origin":18579,"position":3},"title":"Don’t trust the VIX","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 1, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year US Treasury yields broke resistance at 3.90% and are now retracing to test the new support level. Respect would confirm the target of 4.20%. The S&P 500 retreated from resistance at 4200 over the last month as long-term yields rose. Annual rate-of-change continues to signal a bear market. Volatility\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19004,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/28\/fedex-breaks-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":18579,"position":4},"title":"Fedex breaks support","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 28, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Bellwether transport stock Fedex (FDX) broke long-term support at 150, warning of a decline with a long-term target of 100. A down-trend on Fedex has bearish implications for the broader economy, signaling that activity is declining. We have been here before: November 2007 - Fedex Warns of Worse to Come.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":42475,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/13\/beware-the-bull-trap\/","url_meta":{"origin":18579,"position":5},"title":"Beware the Bull Trap","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 13, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 broke through resistance at 4300 as expected, signaling a fresh advance. But market breadth is exceptionally narrow. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index lags way behind and the main index breakout has all the signs of a bull trap. Commodities Brent crude continues to fall, testing support\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-13-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18579"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18579\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18580,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18579\/revisions\/18580"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}