{"id":18539,"date":"2019-07-13T02:35:42","date_gmt":"2019-07-13T02:35:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18539"},"modified":"2019-07-13T02:38:14","modified_gmt":"2019-07-13T02:38:14","slug":"asx-tailwinds-v-headwinds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/07\/13\/asx-tailwinds-v-headwinds\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX tailwinds v. headwinds"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The ASX continues to enjoy a massive external tailwind, with iron ore spot prices holding at $120\/tonne.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-07-12-tr.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Iron Ore\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Headwinds stem mainly from domestic sources. Low employment and disposable income growth have slowed consumption, especially of durables such as housing and motor vehicles. Construction work done in the private engineering sector (mainly mining and energy related) continues to decline after a dramatic fall in 2013-2015. Public sector spending is also tailing off as the NBN roll-out winds down.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-07-11-aus-construction.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Construction Work Done\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Private sector building still shows some resilience but is expected to fall as approvals for new residential construction decline (source: ABS).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-07-11-aus-approvals.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Building Approvals\" \/><\/p>\n<p>My concern is that the headwinds will outlast the tailwind, in which case all three construction sectors could fall to 2006 levels.<\/p>\n<p>The ASX 200 continues to advance, headed for a test of its 2007 high at 6830. A declining Trend index would warn of rising selling pressure, while penetration of the rising trendline on the index chart would signal a correction to test support at 6000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-07-12-asx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We continue to maintain a high level of cash in our Australian Growth portfolio.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The ASX continues to enjoy a massive external tailwind, with iron ore spot prices holding at $120\/tonne. Headwinds stem mainly from domestic sources. Low employment and disposable income growth have slowed consumption, especially of durables such as housing and motor vehicles. Construction work done in the private engineering sector (mainly mining and energy related) continues &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/07\/13\/asx-tailwinds-v-headwinds\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;ASX tailwinds v. headwinds&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,57],"tags":[251,792,4072,1902],"class_list":["post-18539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-construction","tag-dwelling-approvals","tag-iron-ore"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ASX tailwinds v. headwinds - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX tailwinds v. headwinds - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The ASX continues to enjoy a massive external tailwind, with iron ore spot prices holding at $120\/tonne. Headwinds stem mainly from domestic sources. Low employment and disposable income growth have slowed consumption, especially of durables such as housing and motor vehicles. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4P1","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":18800,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/31\/asx-falling-approvals-and-construction-warn-of-a-slow-down\/","url_meta":{"origin":18539,"position":0},"title":"ASX: Falling approvals and construction warn of a slow-down","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 31, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian building approvals for July 2019 show a sharply contracting economy. Housing approvals fell by 16.6% on a year-on-year basis and are approaching the 8000 level breached in earlier crashes. Approvals for apartments (dwellings excluding houses) plunged by a massive 44.2% year-on-year. The massive contraction in approvals is likely to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19282,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/19\/asx-and-3-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":18539,"position":1},"title":"ASX and 3 headwinds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 19, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Despite recent strong performance, investor enthusiasm may be cooling, with the Australian economy facing three headwinds. Declining Household Spending Household income growth is faltering and weighing down consumption. Household spending would have fallen even further, dragging the economy into recession, if households were not digging into savings to maintain their\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16538,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/06\/banks-lift-asx-200\/","url_meta":{"origin":18539,"position":2},"title":"Banks lift ASX 200","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 6, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test resistance at 8000. Respect remains likely and would indicate another test of primary support at 7300. Rising banks lifted the ASX 200. Follow-through above 6250 signals another primary advance, with a target of the October 2007 high at 6750. This leaves me\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18577,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/07\/27\/iron-ore-tailwinds-lift-the-asx\/","url_meta":{"origin":18539,"position":3},"title":"Iron ore tailwinds lift the ASX","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 27, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Further increases in iron ore prices are predicted. Enrico de la Cruz at Mining.com reports: Singapore-based steel and iron ore data analytics firm Tivlon Technologies is keeping its price forecast of $150 a tonne by October. \u201cWe expect the launch of infrastructure projects in China to peak in the third\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18998,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/28\/asx-200-stubborn-resistance\/","url_meta":{"origin":18539,"position":4},"title":"ASX 200: Stubborn resistance","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 28, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore is headed for another test of short-term support at $90. Breach would signal another decline, with a medium-term target of $80 per ton. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index retreated this week and is expected to test long-term support at 4100. Breach would complete a head and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61176,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/25\/iron-ore-faces-tariff-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":18539,"position":5},"title":"Iron ore faces tariff headwinds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 25, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian iron ore exports to China will likely fall as Chinese steelmakers face a flurry of new tariffs on imported steel in major export markets. From Business Times, Singapore: VIETNAM will impose anti-dumping tariffs on steel from China, following South Korea and other nations in fighting back against surging supplies\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Chinese Steel Exports","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-24-china-steelexports.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-24-china-steelexports.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-24-china-steelexports.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18539","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18539"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18539\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18542,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18539\/revisions\/18542"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18539"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18539"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18539"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}